Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 8–14 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Venstre 4.4% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–49 40–50 40–50 38–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 37–43 36–45 36–46 34–47
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–29 23–30 23–31 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–30 23–30 22–31 21–33
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 1–10 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–9
Venstre 8 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.6%  
39 1.4% 99.0%  
40 4% 98%  
41 4% 94%  
42 10% 90%  
43 17% 80%  
44 9% 63%  
45 11% 54% Last Result, Median
46 13% 43%  
47 9% 30%  
48 8% 20%  
49 6% 12%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.7%  
35 0.9% 99.3%  
36 6% 98%  
37 6% 92%  
38 8% 86%  
39 15% 78%  
40 26% 63% Median
41 14% 37%  
42 8% 23%  
43 7% 15%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 5%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 0.9% 99.5%  
23 6% 98.6%  
24 4% 93%  
25 15% 89%  
26 23% 74%  
27 23% 51% Last Result, Median
28 9% 29%  
29 10% 19%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.9% 2%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.8%  
22 4% 99.2%  
23 4% 96%  
24 5% 92%  
25 12% 86%  
26 21% 74%  
27 15% 53% Median
28 19% 37%  
29 5% 18%  
30 9% 13%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.7% 1.3%  
33 0.4% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 3% 99.2%  
11 12% 96% Last Result
12 18% 84%  
13 28% 66% Median
14 22% 38%  
15 9% 16%  
16 6% 7%  
17 1.0% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 12% 94%  
3 4% 82%  
4 0.1% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0% 78%  
7 10% 78%  
8 36% 68% Median
9 25% 32%  
10 5% 7%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 41% 97%  
3 0% 56%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0% 56%  
7 12% 56% Median
8 28% 43%  
9 12% 15%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 17% 99.2%  
2 19% 82%  
3 41% 63% Median
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0% 22%  
7 7% 22%  
8 12% 15% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 48% 97% Median
2 48% 49%  
3 0.1% 1.2%  
4 0% 1.1%  
5 0% 1.1%  
6 0% 1.1%  
7 0.8% 1.1%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 103 100% 98–109 98–111 97–111 95–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 93 96% 87–97 86–98 84–98 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 90 94% 86–96 84–97 83–98 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 74% 82–92 81–93 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 58% 80–90 79–91 78–93 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 84 41% 79–88 78–90 76–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 11% 75–85 74–86 73–87 72–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 76 4% 72–82 71–83 70–85 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 77 2% 73–83 71–84 69–84 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.3% 69–78 67–79 66–80 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0.1% 67–76 66–78 65–79 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–76 65–77 64–78 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 49–57 49–58 48–59 46–61
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 50 0% 46–54 45–56 44–57 42–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 28–36 27–37 26–38 25–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 2% 99.3%  
97 2% 98%  
98 9% 95%  
99 3% 86%  
100 14% 83%  
101 5% 69%  
102 7% 64%  
103 7% 57% Median
104 8% 50%  
105 12% 41%  
106 4% 29%  
107 10% 25% Last Result
108 4% 15%  
109 4% 11%  
110 3% 8%  
111 3% 5%  
112 0.4% 2%  
113 1.1% 2%  
114 0.6% 1.0%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
82 0.4% 99.3%  
83 1.2% 98.9%  
84 1.4% 98%  
85 1.0% 96% Majority
86 3% 95%  
87 3% 92%  
88 6% 89%  
89 6% 84%  
90 12% 78%  
91 9% 66%  
92 6% 57%  
93 10% 51%  
94 8% 41%  
95 10% 33% Median
96 7% 23%  
97 10% 16%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.2% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.2%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.7% 99.6%  
82 1.0% 98.9%  
83 1.4% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 4% 94% Majority
86 6% 90%  
87 6% 84%  
88 8% 79% Last Result
89 11% 70%  
90 13% 59%  
91 10% 47% Median
92 6% 36%  
93 7% 31%  
94 8% 24%  
95 5% 16%  
96 5% 10%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.6%  
78 1.1% 99.3%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 97% Last Result
81 3% 95%  
82 5% 92%  
83 6% 87%  
84 7% 81%  
85 7% 74% Majority
86 7% 67%  
87 14% 59%  
88 10% 45% Median
89 11% 35%  
90 9% 24%  
91 5% 15%  
92 6% 11%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.5% 1.2%  
96 0.5% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.6%  
77 0.6% 99.2%  
78 2% 98.7%  
79 4% 97%  
80 3% 93% Last Result
81 5% 90%  
82 6% 85%  
83 13% 79%  
84 8% 66%  
85 11% 58% Majority
86 6% 47%  
87 11% 41% Median
88 10% 31%  
89 11% 21%  
90 4% 10%  
91 3% 7%  
92 0.8% 4%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 2% 99.1%  
77 1.0% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 93%  
80 11% 89%  
81 10% 79%  
82 11% 69%  
83 6% 58%  
84 11% 52% Median
85 8% 41% Majority
86 13% 33%  
87 6% 20%  
88 5% 14%  
89 3% 10% Last Result
90 4% 7%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.2%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 1.1% 99.6%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 6% 95%  
76 7% 89%  
77 9% 82%  
78 5% 73%  
79 14% 69% Last Result
80 7% 54% Median
81 17% 47%  
82 9% 30%  
83 7% 21%  
84 4% 14%  
85 4% 11% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.1%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.3%  
70 1.3% 98.7%  
71 3% 97%  
72 10% 94%  
73 7% 84%  
74 10% 77%  
75 8% 67%  
76 10% 59% Median
77 6% 49%  
78 9% 42%  
79 12% 33%  
80 5% 21%  
81 6% 16%  
82 2% 10%  
83 3% 8%  
84 1.0% 5%  
85 1.3% 4% Majority
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.1%  
88 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 1.0% 99.4%  
69 1.0% 98%  
70 1.3% 97%  
71 3% 96%  
72 2% 94%  
73 6% 92%  
74 7% 86%  
75 11% 79%  
76 11% 67%  
77 14% 56% Last Result
78 8% 43% Median
79 6% 35%  
80 4% 29%  
81 10% 25%  
82 5% 15%  
83 3% 10%  
84 5% 8%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 3% 99.2%  
67 2% 96%  
68 2% 94%  
69 7% 92%  
70 3% 85%  
71 21% 82%  
72 6% 61%  
73 13% 55% Median
74 7% 42%  
75 9% 35%  
76 8% 26%  
77 5% 18%  
78 5% 13%  
79 2% 7%  
80 3% 5% Last Result
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.2%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.3% Majority
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.5%  
65 3% 98.6%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 6% 89%  
69 11% 83%  
70 15% 72%  
71 8% 57%  
72 11% 49% Last Result, Median
73 11% 39%  
74 5% 28%  
75 9% 23%  
76 5% 14%  
77 3% 9%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.6%  
64 3% 98.5%  
65 5% 96%  
66 6% 91%  
67 6% 84%  
68 11% 78%  
69 17% 67%  
70 6% 50% Median
71 4% 44%  
72 11% 40%  
73 8% 29%  
74 6% 20%  
75 4% 15%  
76 4% 11% Last Result
77 4% 7%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 0.9% 99.5%  
61 2% 98.6%  
62 5% 96%  
63 8% 91%  
64 8% 84%  
65 7% 76%  
66 16% 69%  
67 13% 53% Median
68 9% 39% Last Result
69 10% 31%  
70 9% 21%  
71 5% 12%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.2% 1.1%  
76 0.6% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 1.1% 99.4%  
48 2% 98%  
49 7% 96%  
50 7% 89%  
51 10% 82%  
52 8% 72%  
53 20% 64% Median
54 17% 44%  
55 7% 27%  
56 7% 20%  
57 5% 12%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.5% 2% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 1.1% 99.3%  
44 2% 98%  
45 6% 96%  
46 5% 90%  
47 7% 85%  
48 14% 78%  
49 14% 64% Median
50 6% 51%  
51 10% 44%  
52 13% 34%  
53 6% 21%  
54 7% 15%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 6%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.3%  
60 0.1% 0.7%  
61 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.1%  
27 4% 97%  
28 7% 93%  
29 8% 86%  
30 15% 78%  
31 17% 63% Median
32 8% 46%  
33 10% 38%  
34 8% 28%  
35 6% 20% Last Result
36 5% 14%  
37 6% 10%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations