Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 14–20 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.3% 23.6–27.2% 23.1–27.7% 22.6–28.2% 21.8–29.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.6% 20.9–24.4% 20.4–24.9% 20.0–25.3% 19.2–26.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.3% 13.0–15.9% 12.6–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.6–17.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.6% 10.7–16.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.4% 6.3–9.7% 5.8–10.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–49 41–51 40–52 38–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 39–44 38–45 37–47 35–48
Senterpartiet 19 27 23–29 23–30 22–30 20–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–27 21–27 20–28 19–30
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.2%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 97%  
42 10% 91%  
43 4% 81%  
44 10% 77%  
45 18% 66% Last Result, Median
46 13% 48%  
47 9% 35%  
48 11% 26%  
49 6% 15%  
50 4% 10%  
51 2% 5%  
52 2% 3%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 1.5% 99.1%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 5% 91%  
40 26% 85%  
41 15% 59% Median
42 20% 43%  
43 8% 24%  
44 8% 15%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.3%  
22 3% 98%  
23 11% 95%  
24 12% 84%  
25 10% 72%  
26 10% 62%  
27 21% 52% Median
28 17% 30%  
29 4% 13%  
30 7% 9%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.8%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 0.8% 99.6%  
20 3% 98.8%  
21 7% 96%  
22 11% 89%  
23 9% 78%  
24 25% 69% Median
25 14% 44%  
26 17% 30%  
27 9% 13% Last Result
28 2% 4%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.0% Last Result
12 8% 94%  
13 25% 86%  
14 30% 61% Median
15 16% 31%  
16 8% 15%  
17 4% 8%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 15% 91%  
3 17% 76%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 10% 60% Median
8 25% 49%  
9 19% 25%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 5% 98%  
3 23% 93%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0.3% 70%  
7 13% 69%  
8 29% 57% Last Result, Median
9 23% 27%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100% Last Result
2 63% 79% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.7% 17%  
7 6% 16%  
8 9% 10%  
9 1.2% 1.5%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 10% 99.6%  
2 76% 89% Median
3 0.3% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 9% 13%  
8 4% 4% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 105 100% 100–111 99–111 97–113 95–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.3% 89–99 88–100 87–100 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 90 96% 85–96 85–96 83–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 74% 83–93 82–94 80–95 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 45% 79–89 78–91 77–92 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 85 55% 80–90 78–91 77–92 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 17% 77–86 76–88 75–89 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 16% 75–85 73–86 72–87 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 79 4% 73–84 73–84 71–86 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0.1% 68–77 66–78 65–80 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.1% 69–79 68–79 66–79 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 66–74 64–76 63–77 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 63–71 62–72 62–74 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 52–59 51–61 50–62 48–63
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 50–59 48–61 46–62 45–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 30–39 29–40 28–42 26–43

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.4%  
97 2% 99.1%  
98 2% 97%  
99 3% 96%  
100 6% 93%  
101 4% 86%  
102 8% 82%  
103 14% 75%  
104 5% 61%  
105 10% 55%  
106 6% 45% Median
107 6% 39% Last Result
108 15% 33%  
109 3% 18%  
110 3% 14%  
111 7% 12%  
112 2% 5%  
113 0.6% 3%  
114 2% 2%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 1.3% 99.3% Majority
86 0.5% 98%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 4% 96% Last Result
89 5% 93%  
90 5% 87%  
91 15% 82%  
92 7% 67%  
93 7% 60%  
94 7% 53%  
95 9% 47%  
96 13% 37%  
97 7% 24% Median
98 4% 17%  
99 5% 14%  
100 7% 9%  
101 0.6% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.5%  
103 0.6% 1.0%  
104 0.3% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.6% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.2% Last Result
82 0.5% 98.6%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 14% 96% Majority
86 2% 81%  
87 4% 80%  
88 11% 75%  
89 14% 65%  
90 7% 51%  
91 9% 44% Median
92 6% 35%  
93 8% 29%  
94 8% 21%  
95 2% 13%  
96 6% 11%  
97 2% 5%  
98 0.7% 3%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.8% 1.1%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 1.1% 99.7%  
79 0.8% 98.6%  
80 0.7% 98% Last Result
81 1.4% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 17% 93%  
84 3% 77%  
85 6% 74% Majority
86 11% 69%  
87 16% 58%  
88 7% 42%  
89 9% 34% Median
90 2% 25%  
91 5% 23%  
92 8% 18%  
93 4% 11%  
94 4% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.4% 2%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.6% 0.7%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 99.4%  
77 1.3% 98.7%  
78 4% 97%  
79 5% 93%  
80 5% 88% Last Result
81 7% 83%  
82 13% 76%  
83 7% 62%  
84 11% 56% Median
85 5% 45% Majority
86 15% 40%  
87 6% 25%  
88 6% 19%  
89 3% 12%  
90 4% 9%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.4% 2%  
94 0.8% 1.2%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.8% 99.5%  
76 0.4% 98.8%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 4% 94%  
80 3% 91%  
81 6% 88%  
82 6% 81%  
83 15% 75%  
84 5% 60%  
85 11% 55% Majority
86 7% 44% Median
87 13% 38%  
88 7% 24%  
89 5% 17% Last Result
90 5% 12%  
91 4% 7%  
92 1.3% 3%  
93 0.6% 1.3%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.1%  
75 2% 98%  
76 5% 97%  
77 6% 91%  
78 6% 85%  
79 7% 79% Last Result
80 17% 72%  
81 8% 55%  
82 7% 47% Median
83 9% 40%  
84 13% 31%  
85 7% 17% Majority
86 3% 10%  
87 2% 7%  
88 1.1% 5%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.6% 1.5%  
91 0.1% 0.9%  
92 0.4% 0.7%  
93 0.3% 0.3%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 1.0% 99.0%  
72 1.2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 4% 91%  
76 9% 87%  
77 7% 79% Last Result
78 12% 72%  
79 7% 59%  
80 7% 53%  
81 8% 46%  
82 13% 38%  
83 4% 24% Median
84 5% 21%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 6% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.7% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.8% 99.7%  
70 1.0% 98.9%  
71 0.7% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 6% 95%  
74 2% 89%  
75 8% 87%  
76 8% 79%  
77 6% 71%  
78 9% 65%  
79 7% 56% Median
80 14% 49%  
81 11% 35%  
82 4% 25%  
83 2% 20%  
84 14% 19%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.7% 3%  
87 0.5% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
89 0.6% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 2% 97%  
67 3% 95%  
68 7% 92%  
69 8% 85%  
70 8% 77%  
71 14% 69% Median
72 11% 55%  
73 4% 44%  
74 8% 40%  
75 7% 32%  
76 13% 25%  
77 4% 12%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3% Last Result
81 0.4% 1.2%  
82 0.5% 0.9%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.2%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 2% 97%  
68 5% 95%  
69 2% 91%  
70 3% 88%  
71 10% 85%  
72 5% 75%  
73 12% 70%  
74 10% 58%  
75 11% 47%  
76 10% 37% Last Result, Median
77 9% 27%  
78 6% 18%  
79 10% 12%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 1.2% 99.4%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 4% 95%  
66 8% 90%  
67 9% 82%  
68 7% 73%  
69 18% 66% Median
70 12% 47%  
71 4% 36%  
72 7% 32% Last Result
73 6% 25%  
74 9% 19%  
75 3% 9%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.5%  
61 1.3% 99.0%  
62 3% 98%  
63 7% 94%  
64 8% 88%  
65 10% 79%  
66 6% 70%  
67 13% 64%  
68 12% 51% Last Result, Median
69 11% 39%  
70 12% 28%  
71 10% 16%  
72 2% 6%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.0% 3%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.2%  
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.7%  
49 0.9% 99.0%  
50 3% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 5% 92%  
53 15% 87%  
54 11% 72%  
55 13% 61% Median
56 23% 48%  
57 9% 25%  
58 4% 16%  
59 4% 12%  
60 2% 8% Last Result
61 2% 5%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 1.3% 97%  
48 2% 96%  
49 3% 94%  
50 5% 92%  
51 9% 87%  
52 7% 78%  
53 7% 71%  
54 10% 64%  
55 6% 54% Median
56 14% 49%  
57 11% 34%  
58 9% 23%  
59 6% 14%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 5% Last Result
62 2% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.7% 99.5%  
28 3% 98.8%  
29 2% 96%  
30 5% 94%  
31 7% 88%  
32 4% 82%  
33 7% 78%  
34 6% 70%  
35 11% 64% Last Result
36 9% 53%  
37 13% 44% Median
38 10% 31%  
39 13% 21%  
40 3% 7%  
41 1.2% 4%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 1.0%  
44 0.1% 0.4%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations