Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 21–25 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 22.6% 20.7–24.7% 20.1–25.3% 19.7–25.8% 18.8–26.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.3% 20.4–24.4% 19.9–25.0% 19.4–25.5% 18.5–26.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.1% 13.5–17.0% 13.1–17.5% 12.7–18.0% 12.0–18.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.9% 12.3–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.5–16.6% 10.8–17.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.4% 7.2–9.9% 6.9–10.3% 6.6–10.7% 6.1–11.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 41 36–44 35–46 35–47 33–49
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 38–45 37–46 35–47 34–49
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–31 23–32 23–33 21–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 22–29 21–29 20–30 19–32
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–18 12–19 11–19 10–21
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 2–12 1–13
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.6%  
34 0.9% 99.2%  
35 6% 98%  
36 5% 93%  
37 5% 87%  
38 8% 82%  
39 6% 74%  
40 9% 69%  
41 11% 60% Median
42 14% 49%  
43 7% 35%  
44 19% 28%  
45 4% 9% Last Result
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.6% 2%  
49 0.6% 1.0%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 0.8% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 2% 97%  
37 4% 96%  
38 9% 91%  
39 6% 82%  
40 12% 75%  
41 13% 63%  
42 13% 50% Median
43 19% 38%  
44 8% 19%  
45 3% 11%  
46 5% 8%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.3% 1.0%  
49 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.8%  
22 1.0% 99.3%  
23 4% 98%  
24 5% 95%  
25 8% 90%  
26 12% 82%  
27 22% 71% Median
28 13% 48%  
29 10% 35%  
30 7% 25%  
31 11% 18%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.6%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.4% 99.7%  
20 2% 99.3%  
21 4% 97%  
22 4% 93%  
23 8% 90%  
24 11% 81%  
25 18% 71%  
26 19% 52% Median
27 9% 34% Last Result
28 15% 25%  
29 6% 10%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.9% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.4% Last Result
12 4% 97%  
13 10% 93%  
14 22% 83%  
15 15% 61% Median
16 21% 46%  
17 12% 25%  
18 9% 14%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.1% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 2% 99.0%  
3 18% 97%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 0.1% 79%  
7 5% 79%  
8 32% 74% Last Result, Median
9 22% 41%  
10 9% 19%  
11 7% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 20% 100% Last Result
2 48% 80% Median
3 0% 32%  
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0.3% 32%  
7 11% 32%  
8 12% 20%  
9 5% 8%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 64% 95% Median
3 1.4% 32%  
4 0.1% 30%  
5 0% 30%  
6 0.2% 30%  
7 12% 30%  
8 11% 18% Last Result
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 41% 99.8% Last Result
2 34% 59% Median
3 2% 26%  
4 0% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 0.1% 23%  
7 8% 23%  
8 10% 15%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 105 100% 100–111 99–112 97–113 94–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 95 98% 90–100 88–102 85–103 84–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 93% 86–97 83–98 82–100 81–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 80% 82–93 81–95 80–97 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 77% 82–93 80–94 79–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 45% 79–90 78–91 76–92 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 81 20% 76–87 74–88 72–89 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 80 12% 74–85 73–87 71–88 69–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 7% 72–83 70–86 69–87 67–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 2% 71–82 69–83 68–83 66–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 64–76 63–78 62–79 60–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 64–74 63–75 62–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 61–72 59–73 58–74 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 52–61 51–62 50–63 48–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 47–58 45–60 44–61 42–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 38 0% 35–44 33–46 31–48 29–49

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.8%  
95 0.6% 99.5%  
96 0.9% 98.9%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 3% 96%  
100 4% 92%  
101 6% 88%  
102 6% 82%  
103 4% 76%  
104 7% 72% Median
105 17% 65%  
106 7% 48%  
107 6% 41% Last Result
108 6% 35%  
109 11% 30%  
110 8% 19%  
111 2% 11%  
112 4% 8%  
113 3% 5%  
114 1.5% 2%  
115 0.4% 0.7%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 1.3% 99.7%  
85 0.9% 98% Majority
86 0.4% 97%  
87 1.1% 97%  
88 2% 96% Last Result
89 3% 93%  
90 5% 90%  
91 6% 85%  
92 5% 80%  
93 14% 75%  
94 8% 61% Median
95 7% 53%  
96 10% 46%  
97 9% 36%  
98 8% 27%  
99 6% 20%  
100 5% 13%  
101 3% 8%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.1% 3%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 1.2% 1.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
82 2% 99.1%  
83 3% 97%  
84 2% 95%  
85 2% 93% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 12% 87%  
88 8% 76% Median
89 5% 67%  
90 8% 62%  
91 10% 54%  
92 8% 44%  
93 6% 36%  
94 6% 30%  
95 11% 25%  
96 2% 14%  
97 4% 12%  
98 3% 8%  
99 1.2% 5%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.2% 2%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.5%  
79 1.1% 98.8%  
80 0.9% 98% Last Result
81 4% 97%  
82 4% 93%  
83 4% 89%  
84 5% 85%  
85 4% 80% Majority
86 16% 76% Median
87 6% 60%  
88 9% 54%  
89 9% 45%  
90 6% 36%  
91 7% 30%  
92 5% 24%  
93 11% 19%  
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.5% 3%  
97 1.5% 3%  
98 0.2% 1.3%  
99 0.7% 1.1%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 99.4%  
79 1.5% 98.6%  
80 2% 97% Last Result
81 4% 95%  
82 5% 91%  
83 4% 86%  
84 5% 82%  
85 14% 77% Majority
86 9% 63% Median
87 7% 54%  
88 8% 47%  
89 5% 39%  
90 11% 34%  
91 6% 23%  
92 4% 17%  
93 8% 13%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.8% 1.5%  
98 0.3% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.4%  
76 2% 98.9%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 4% 92% Last Result
80 7% 88%  
81 5% 80%  
82 7% 75%  
83 7% 69%  
84 17% 61% Median
85 8% 45% Majority
86 8% 37%  
87 5% 29%  
88 7% 24%  
89 4% 17%  
90 3% 13%  
91 6% 9%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.7% 1.3%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.6%  
71 0.2% 98.9%  
72 1.5% 98.7%  
73 0.5% 97%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 95%  
76 11% 91%  
77 5% 81%  
78 7% 76%  
79 6% 69% Median
80 9% 63%  
81 9% 54%  
82 5% 45%  
83 16% 40%  
84 4% 24%  
85 5% 20% Majority
86 4% 15%  
87 4% 11%  
88 4% 7%  
89 0.8% 3% Last Result
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 1.3% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 1.3% 96%  
73 4% 95%  
74 3% 91%  
75 4% 88%  
76 5% 84%  
77 8% 79% Last Result
78 5% 71%  
79 11% 66% Median
80 18% 55%  
81 8% 37%  
82 3% 29%  
83 8% 26%  
84 6% 18%  
85 3% 12% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 1.0% 1.4%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 1.2% 99.1%  
69 2% 98%  
70 1.2% 96%  
71 3% 95%  
72 4% 92%  
73 2% 88%  
74 11% 86%  
75 6% 75%  
76 6% 69%  
77 8% 63% Median
78 10% 55%  
79 8% 45%  
80 5% 37%  
81 8% 32%  
82 11% 24%  
83 4% 12%  
84 2% 9%  
85 2% 7% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 1.3% 99.3%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 4% 92%  
72 3% 88%  
73 6% 84%  
74 5% 78%  
75 6% 73%  
76 8% 67% Last Result
77 7% 59% Median
78 23% 52%  
79 10% 30%  
80 4% 20%  
81 5% 15%  
82 5% 10%  
83 3% 5%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.9%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 0.9% 98.9%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 93%  
65 5% 90%  
66 5% 85%  
67 7% 80%  
68 6% 73%  
69 6% 66% Median
70 11% 60%  
71 10% 49%  
72 5% 39%  
73 8% 34%  
74 10% 26%  
75 3% 16%  
76 5% 12%  
77 2% 7%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.5% Last Result
81 0.3% 1.1%  
82 0.1% 0.8%  
83 0.6% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.5%  
61 1.3% 99.2%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 95%  
64 6% 94%  
65 6% 87%  
66 6% 82%  
67 8% 76%  
68 10% 68% Last Result
69 8% 57% Median
70 18% 49%  
71 5% 31%  
72 8% 26%  
73 5% 18%  
74 4% 13%  
75 6% 9%  
76 0.8% 3%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.9% 1.1%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 98.6%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 5% 92%  
62 5% 87%  
63 6% 82%  
64 8% 77%  
65 9% 69%  
66 8% 60%  
67 7% 52% Median
68 11% 45%  
69 10% 33%  
70 4% 24%  
71 6% 20%  
72 8% 14% Last Result
73 2% 6%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.4% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 1.2% 99.3%  
50 1.2% 98%  
51 5% 97%  
52 4% 92%  
53 6% 88%  
54 9% 83%  
55 12% 73%  
56 9% 62%  
57 17% 53% Median
58 6% 36%  
59 8% 30%  
60 10% 22% Last Result
61 6% 12%  
62 3% 6%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 95%  
47 5% 92%  
48 4% 87%  
49 8% 83%  
50 9% 75%  
51 6% 66% Median
52 13% 60%  
53 6% 47%  
54 13% 41%  
55 8% 28%  
56 4% 19%  
57 5% 15%  
58 1.3% 10%  
59 4% 9%  
60 1.5% 5%  
61 2% 4% Last Result
62 0.4% 1.2%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.3% 99.5%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 1.2% 97%  
33 2% 96%  
34 4% 94%  
35 4% 90% Last Result
36 9% 87%  
37 20% 77% Median
38 10% 58%  
39 4% 48%  
40 6% 44%  
41 10% 38%  
42 10% 28%  
43 4% 18%  
44 6% 14%  
45 2% 8%  
46 2% 6%  
47 0.9% 4%  
48 0.7% 3%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations