Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 21–27 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.1% 22.1–26.3% 21.6–26.9% 21.1–27.5% 20.2–28.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.7% 19.8–23.8% 19.3–24.4% 18.8–24.9% 17.9–26.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.4% 12.8–16.2% 12.3–16.7% 11.9–17.2% 11.2–18.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.1% 11.6–14.8% 11.1–15.3% 10.8–15.8% 10.1–16.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.2% 4.9–9.9%
Rødt 2.4% 5.2% 4.2–6.4% 4.0–6.8% 3.8–7.1% 3.4–7.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.8% 3.1–7.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.4–5.3% 2.1–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 43 39–48 38–49 37–50 35–52
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 36–43 35–44 34–46 32–48
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 22–30 21–31 20–33
Senterpartiet 19 23 20–27 19–28 19–29 18–31
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–16 9–16 8–18
Rødt 1 9 7–12 2–12 2–12 2–14
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 3–11 2–11 2–12 1–13
Venstre 8 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 0–7 0–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 1.2% 99.0%  
37 2% 98%  
38 3% 96%  
39 7% 93%  
40 9% 86%  
41 10% 77%  
42 9% 66%  
43 16% 58% Median
44 8% 42%  
45 8% 34% Last Result
46 12% 26%  
47 4% 14%  
48 5% 10%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.4% 1.1%  
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.7%  
33 0.8% 99.3%  
34 2% 98%  
35 1.3% 96%  
36 6% 95%  
37 4% 88%  
38 8% 85%  
39 14% 76%  
40 26% 62% Median
41 15% 36%  
42 8% 21%  
43 6% 13%  
44 3% 7%  
45 1.5% 5%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.8% 1.5%  
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.6% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.1%  
22 3% 97%  
23 4% 94%  
24 10% 90%  
25 26% 80%  
26 15% 55% Median
27 15% 40% Last Result
28 11% 26%  
29 6% 15%  
30 5% 9%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 4% 98% Last Result
20 7% 94%  
21 11% 87%  
22 11% 76%  
23 18% 65% Median
24 15% 47%  
25 9% 33%  
26 12% 23%  
27 4% 12%  
28 3% 7%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.8%  
9 3% 99.0%  
10 9% 96%  
11 22% 87% Last Result
12 16% 65% Median
13 20% 49%  
14 13% 29%  
15 9% 16%  
16 4% 6%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 7% 99.8%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.4% 93%  
7 8% 93%  
8 18% 85%  
9 23% 67% Median
10 22% 44%  
11 12% 23%  
12 9% 10%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 8% 98%  
3 2% 90%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0.6% 88%  
7 10% 87%  
8 25% 78%  
9 26% 53% Median
10 13% 27%  
11 9% 14%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 9% 99.8%  
2 60% 91% Median
3 0.1% 31%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 1.4% 31%  
7 13% 29%  
8 11% 17% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 27% 93%  
2 29% 66% Median
3 25% 36%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0.1% 11%  
6 0.7% 11%  
7 7% 10%  
8 3% 4% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 99 100% 93–104 92–106 91–108 89–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 93 97% 88–99 85–100 84–100 81–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 86 70% 81–92 80–93 78–95 75–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 53% 79–90 77–91 77–93 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 46% 79–89 77–91 76–92 73–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 84 43% 78–89 76–90 75–91 72–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 2% 71–81 69–83 69–83 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 76 2% 70–81 69–82 67–83 66–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 74 0.4% 69–79 68–81 66–82 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.3% 68–79 66–80 65–81 63–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 65–75 63–76 62–77 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 65 0% 61–71 60–72 59–73 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 59–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 49–56 47–57 46–59 44–61
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 49 0% 44–55 43–56 42–57 40–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 25–35 24–36 23–37 22–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.8% 99.4%  
91 1.2% 98.6%  
92 3% 97%  
93 6% 94%  
94 5% 88%  
95 6% 83%  
96 5% 78% Median
97 13% 72%  
98 8% 59%  
99 11% 51%  
100 7% 40%  
101 8% 33%  
102 7% 26%  
103 3% 18%  
104 6% 15%  
105 3% 9%  
106 3% 7%  
107 1.1% 4% Last Result
108 1.0% 3%  
109 1.4% 2%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
82 0.6% 99.3%  
83 0.7% 98.7%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 1.1% 94%  
87 3% 93%  
88 6% 91%  
89 8% 84%  
90 5% 76%  
91 11% 71%  
92 4% 60%  
93 15% 56% Median
94 4% 41%  
95 7% 38%  
96 7% 30%  
97 3% 23%  
98 5% 20%  
99 9% 15%  
100 4% 6%  
101 1.1% 2%  
102 0.7% 1.3%  
103 0.4% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.7% 99.1%  
78 1.1% 98%  
79 1.2% 97%  
80 4% 96%  
81 4% 92%  
82 6% 88%  
83 7% 83%  
84 5% 75%  
85 10% 70% Majority
86 11% 61% Median
87 10% 50%  
88 12% 40% Last Result
89 4% 28%  
90 7% 24%  
91 7% 17%  
92 4% 11%  
93 3% 7%  
94 1.4% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.3% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 0.7% 99.2%  
76 0.8% 98%  
77 3% 98%  
78 1.3% 95%  
79 5% 94%  
80 4% 89% Last Result
81 6% 85%  
82 9% 78%  
83 6% 70%  
84 11% 63% Median
85 8% 53% Majority
86 9% 45%  
87 10% 36%  
88 6% 26%  
89 7% 20%  
90 5% 13%  
91 4% 8%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.6%  
74 0.5% 99.3%  
75 1.1% 98.8%  
76 1.0% 98%  
77 3% 97%  
78 2% 94%  
79 5% 92%  
80 8% 87% Last Result
81 6% 78%  
82 8% 73%  
83 12% 64%  
84 7% 53% Median
85 9% 46% Majority
86 8% 37%  
87 9% 29%  
88 4% 20%  
89 8% 16%  
90 2% 7%  
91 1.3% 6%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.2%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 0.5% 99.1%  
75 3% 98.6%  
76 2% 96%  
77 2% 94%  
78 4% 92%  
79 5% 88%  
80 7% 83%  
81 7% 75%  
82 9% 69% Median
83 9% 60%  
84 8% 51%  
85 12% 43% Majority
86 6% 31%  
87 8% 25%  
88 6% 17%  
89 4% 11% Last Result
90 4% 7%  
91 0.7% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.2%  
68 0.7% 98.6%  
69 4% 98%  
70 3% 94%  
71 4% 91%  
72 6% 87%  
73 8% 81%  
74 12% 74%  
75 7% 62% Median
76 9% 54%  
77 11% 46%  
78 14% 34%  
79 6% 21% Last Result
80 5% 15%  
81 3% 11%  
82 3% 8%  
83 3% 5%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.7% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 9% 91%  
71 6% 82%  
72 3% 76%  
73 8% 72% Median
74 6% 64%  
75 4% 58%  
76 15% 55%  
77 5% 40%  
78 11% 35%  
79 5% 24%  
80 8% 19%  
81 6% 12%  
82 2% 5%  
83 0.8% 3%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 0.5% 99.1%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 2% 97%  
68 4% 95%  
69 5% 91%  
70 6% 86%  
71 6% 80%  
72 9% 74%  
73 9% 65%  
74 9% 56% Median
75 13% 47%  
76 11% 34%  
77 7% 23% Last Result
78 4% 16%  
79 2% 11%  
80 3% 9%  
81 3% 6%  
82 1.5% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.0% 99.3%  
65 1.2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 6% 91%  
69 8% 85%  
70 10% 77%  
71 6% 67% Median
72 8% 61%  
73 8% 53%  
74 12% 46%  
75 8% 34%  
76 6% 27%  
77 6% 20%  
78 4% 14%  
79 4% 10%  
80 2% 6% Last Result
81 2% 4%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.2%  
84 0.1% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 0.8% 99.1%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 4% 94%  
65 5% 90%  
66 9% 85%  
67 13% 76%  
68 12% 63%  
69 9% 51% Median
70 6% 43%  
71 10% 37%  
72 5% 26% Last Result
73 7% 21%  
74 3% 14%  
75 4% 11%  
76 2% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.4%  
58 1.1% 99.1%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 5% 94%  
62 6% 89%  
63 8% 83%  
64 9% 75%  
65 16% 65% Median
66 9% 50%  
67 12% 40%  
68 9% 28%  
69 5% 19%  
70 3% 14%  
71 3% 12%  
72 4% 9%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.3%  
76 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 99.6%  
56 1.0% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 96%  
59 6% 92%  
60 7% 86%  
61 8% 79%  
62 10% 71%  
63 10% 61% Median
64 18% 52%  
65 10% 33%  
66 7% 23%  
67 6% 16%  
68 3% 11% Last Result
69 2% 7%  
70 2% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.6% 1.3%  
73 0.4% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.5%  
45 1.1% 99.2%  
46 1.3% 98%  
47 4% 97%  
48 2% 93%  
49 7% 90%  
50 9% 84%  
51 14% 75%  
52 14% 61% Median
53 10% 47%  
54 12% 36%  
55 11% 24%  
56 5% 13%  
57 4% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.0% 3%  
60 0.8% 2% Last Result
61 0.8% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 1.3% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 5% 92%  
45 12% 88%  
46 6% 76%  
47 7% 71% Median
48 7% 63%  
49 9% 56%  
50 11% 47%  
51 7% 36%  
52 7% 29%  
53 7% 22%  
54 4% 15%  
55 3% 11%  
56 4% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 0.8% 99.5%  
23 2% 98.7%  
24 3% 97%  
25 6% 94%  
26 12% 88%  
27 9% 76% Median
28 8% 67%  
29 13% 59%  
30 8% 46%  
31 8% 38%  
32 8% 30%  
33 7% 22%  
34 5% 15%  
35 3% 10% Last Result
36 3% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.5% 1.3%  
40 0.3% 0.8%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations