Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 28–30 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.7–28.3% 24.2–28.9% 23.8–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.7% 21.0–24.4% 20.6–25.0% 20.2–25.4% 19.4–26.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 44–51 43–52 42–53 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 39–44 38–46 37–46 35–48
Senterpartiet 19 25 22–28 22–30 21–31 20–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–24 18–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–10 1–11 1–12
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 1–7 0–8 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.7%  
41 1.3% 99.4%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 5% 93%  
45 14% 88% Last Result
46 21% 74%  
47 10% 53% Median
48 7% 43%  
49 12% 36%  
50 8% 23%  
51 9% 15%  
52 4% 7%  
53 1.0% 3%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 1.2% 98.9%  
37 1.3% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 7% 92%  
40 29% 84%  
41 13% 55% Median
42 19% 42%  
43 6% 23%  
44 8% 17%  
45 2% 9%  
46 4% 7%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
20 1.4% 99.7%  
21 2% 98%  
22 9% 96%  
23 10% 87%  
24 15% 77%  
25 16% 62% Median
26 16% 47%  
27 12% 31%  
28 10% 19%  
29 3% 9%  
30 3% 6%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.6%  
17 3% 98.9%  
18 9% 96%  
19 11% 87%  
20 10% 75%  
21 26% 66% Median
22 17% 39%  
23 8% 23%  
24 11% 14%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7% Last Result
12 5% 98%  
13 25% 93%  
14 30% 68% Median
15 19% 38%  
16 8% 19%  
17 7% 11%  
18 3% 5%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 8% 97%  
3 3% 89%  
4 0.1% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.1% 87%  
7 8% 87%  
8 40% 78% Median
9 21% 38%  
10 15% 17%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 27% 98.9%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0.1% 72%  
7 17% 72%  
8 36% 55% Median
9 12% 19%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 71% 98% Median
3 0.1% 27%  
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0.2% 27%  
7 14% 26%  
8 9% 12% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 44% 95%  
2 18% 51% Median
3 26% 34%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.2% 8%  
7 5% 8%  
8 2% 3% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 99 100% 95–104 93–105 91–107 90–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 94 99.8% 91–100 89–101 87–102 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 90 97% 87–96 85–97 84–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 88% 84–94 83–95 82–96 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 78% 83–92 81–93 80–94 77–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 82 22% 77–86 76–88 75–89 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 16% 77–86 75–87 74–88 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 76 1.0% 72–81 70–83 69–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 75 0.2% 69–78 68–80 67–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 66–77 66–78 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 68 0% 65–73 64–74 63–76 61–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 64–73 63–75 62–75 59–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 52–59 52–61 51–62 49–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 53 0% 49–57 48–59 47–60 45–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 27–36 26–38 25–39 24–41

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.4% 99.8%  
91 2% 99.5%  
92 0.7% 97%  
93 3% 96%  
94 2% 94%  
95 6% 92%  
96 5% 85%  
97 16% 80% Median
98 11% 64%  
99 5% 53%  
100 11% 49%  
101 9% 38%  
102 10% 29%  
103 4% 20%  
104 8% 15%  
105 3% 7%  
106 1.1% 4%  
107 1.0% 3% Last Result
108 0.6% 2%  
109 0.7% 1.4%  
110 0.2% 0.7%  
111 0.3% 0.4%  
112 0% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.8% Majority
86 0.6% 99.3%  
87 1.3% 98.7%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 95%  
90 2% 93%  
91 9% 91%  
92 6% 82%  
93 6% 76%  
94 20% 70%  
95 3% 50%  
96 13% 46% Median
97 8% 33%  
98 6% 25%  
99 5% 19%  
100 7% 14%  
101 2% 7%  
102 3% 5%  
103 0.8% 1.3%  
104 0.1% 0.5%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.6%  
83 0.8% 98.8%  
84 1.4% 98%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 3% 93%  
87 9% 90%  
88 11% 81% Last Result
89 8% 70%  
90 14% 62% Median
91 9% 48%  
92 7% 40%  
93 8% 33%  
94 5% 24%  
95 9% 20%  
96 2% 11%  
97 5% 9%  
98 3% 4%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
81 1.5% 99.0%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 5% 92%  
85 5% 88% Majority
86 12% 83%  
87 11% 71%  
88 8% 60% Median
89 15% 52%  
90 7% 37%  
91 7% 30%  
92 10% 24%  
93 1.4% 13%  
94 6% 12%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.5% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.4%  
79 0.7% 99.1%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 3% 95%  
83 8% 92%  
84 6% 84%  
85 9% 78% Majority
86 13% 69%  
87 8% 56%  
88 10% 48% Median
89 8% 38%  
90 7% 29%  
91 6% 22%  
92 9% 16%  
93 5% 8%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 99.4%  
74 0.8% 99.0%  
75 1.3% 98%  
76 5% 97%  
77 9% 92%  
78 6% 84%  
79 7% 78%  
80 8% 71% Median
81 10% 62%  
82 8% 52%  
83 13% 44%  
84 9% 31%  
85 6% 22% Majority
86 8% 16%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 2% 3% Last Result
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.9%  
92 0.5% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 2% 99.2%  
75 3% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 3% 92%  
78 16% 88%  
79 13% 72% Last Result
80 4% 59% Median
81 14% 55%  
82 8% 40%  
83 7% 32%  
84 9% 25%  
85 4% 16% Majority
86 6% 12%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.5% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.3% 0.3%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 2% 98.9%  
70 3% 97%  
71 2% 94%  
72 5% 92%  
73 5% 87%  
74 13% 82%  
75 7% 69%  
76 19% 62% Median
77 6% 43% Last Result
78 9% 37%  
79 5% 28%  
80 6% 23%  
81 9% 17%  
82 3% 8%  
83 4% 6%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.0% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.6%  
66 0.8% 99.5%  
67 3% 98.7%  
68 2% 95%  
69 7% 93%  
70 5% 86%  
71 6% 81%  
72 8% 75% Median
73 13% 67%  
74 3% 54%  
75 20% 50%  
76 6% 30%  
77 6% 24%  
78 9% 18%  
79 2% 9%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.3%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.0%  
65 1.3% 98%  
66 9% 97%  
67 2% 88%  
68 5% 86%  
69 8% 82%  
70 11% 73% Median
71 9% 63%  
72 10% 54%  
73 6% 44%  
74 18% 38%  
75 5% 20%  
76 4% 15%  
77 6% 11%  
78 0.9% 5%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.0% 2% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.3%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 4% 93%  
66 18% 88%  
67 9% 70%  
68 14% 60% Median
69 9% 46%  
70 6% 38%  
71 9% 31%  
72 5% 23%  
73 10% 18%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3% Last Result
77 0.7% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.3%  
61 1.0% 98.6%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 10% 93%  
65 4% 83%  
66 6% 79%  
67 17% 73%  
68 10% 56% Median
69 8% 46%  
70 11% 38%  
71 4% 26%  
72 10% 22% Last Result
73 3% 11%  
74 2% 8%  
75 5% 6%  
76 0.5% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.8%  
60 1.4% 99.2%  
61 1.4% 98%  
62 6% 96%  
63 4% 91%  
64 10% 86%  
65 17% 77%  
66 11% 59% Median
67 13% 48%  
68 9% 36% Last Result
69 4% 26%  
70 12% 22%  
71 3% 10%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 1.3% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 7% 95%  
53 13% 88%  
54 8% 76%  
55 21% 67% Median
56 14% 47%  
57 11% 33%  
58 9% 22%  
59 3% 13%  
60 1.3% 9% Last Result
61 5% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.7% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 6% 97%  
49 7% 91%  
50 7% 84%  
51 14% 77% Median
52 11% 63%  
53 5% 53%  
54 21% 48%  
55 9% 27%  
56 6% 19%  
57 5% 13%  
58 3% 8%  
59 1.3% 6%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.9% 2% Last Result
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.4% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 4% 99.4%  
26 4% 95%  
27 9% 91%  
28 8% 83%  
29 13% 75% Median
30 13% 62%  
31 7% 49%  
32 7% 42%  
33 15% 35%  
34 4% 19%  
35 4% 15% Last Result
36 3% 11%  
37 2% 7%  
38 2% 6%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.6% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations