Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 29 September–4 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.4% 25.6–29.4% 25.1–29.9% 24.7–30.4% 23.9–31.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.0% 20.3–23.8% 19.9–24.3% 19.5–24.7% 18.7–25.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.2% 12.9–15.8% 12.5–16.2% 12.2–16.6% 11.5–17.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.8–14.3% 10.5–14.7% 9.9–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.9% 5.8–9.2% 5.4–9.8%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 1.9–4.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–54 45–55 43–56 42–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 37–43 36–44 35–45 33–47
Senterpartiet 19 26 23–30 22–30 22–31 20–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–25 19–26 19–27 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 10–17 10–18
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–3 1–7 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 0–3 0–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 2% 97%  
45 4% 95% Last Result
46 8% 91%  
47 11% 83%  
48 6% 72%  
49 10% 66%  
50 13% 56% Median
51 8% 43%  
52 18% 35%  
53 4% 17%  
54 4% 13%  
55 6% 9%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 0.9% 99.1%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 8% 93%  
38 12% 85%  
39 10% 74%  
40 24% 63% Median
41 20% 40%  
42 7% 20%  
43 8% 13%  
44 2% 6%  
45 1.2% 3%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 1.0% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 98.9%  
22 3% 98%  
23 7% 95%  
24 13% 88%  
25 23% 75%  
26 15% 52% Median
27 14% 37%  
28 7% 24%  
29 6% 17%  
30 7% 11%  
31 1.2% 3%  
32 0.6% 2%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 1.4% 99.1%  
19 5% 98%  
20 11% 92%  
21 14% 81%  
22 16% 67%  
23 22% 52% Median
24 10% 30%  
25 12% 20%  
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 3% Last Result
28 0.6% 1.1%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 10% 97% Last Result
12 13% 87%  
13 27% 74% Median
14 30% 47%  
15 9% 17%  
16 4% 8%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.5% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 12% 99.7%  
3 0% 88%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 7% 88%  
8 33% 81% Median
9 23% 47%  
10 17% 24%  
11 5% 6%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 43% 99.8%  
3 0.9% 57%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0% 56%  
7 9% 56% Median
8 28% 47% Last Result
9 15% 19%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 69% 99.5% Last Result, Median
2 19% 31%  
3 3% 11%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.1% 8%  
7 4% 8%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 38% 94%  
2 17% 56% Median
3 35% 39%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 106 100% 102–110 100–112 98–113 96–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 89 90% 85–94 83–96 82–97 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 79% 82–92 81–93 80–95 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 84 29% 79–88 78–90 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 16% 77–86 76–88 75–89 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 81 21% 77–87 76–88 74–89 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 7% 75–84 74–85 73–87 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 80 10% 75–84 73–86 72–87 71–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 3% 73–83 71–84 70–85 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0% 67–76 66–77 65–79 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 70 0% 66–74 65–76 64–77 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 68 0% 64–72 63–73 62–75 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–73 57–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 57 0% 53–62 51–64 50–65 49–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 50–57 49–58 48–59 46–61
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 29–39 28–39 27–41 26–44

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.7% 99.9%  
97 0.5% 99.1%  
98 2% 98.7%  
99 1.4% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 5% 91%  
103 8% 86%  
104 7% 78%  
105 17% 71%  
106 15% 54%  
107 8% 39% Last Result
108 9% 32% Median
109 8% 23%  
110 7% 15%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 6%  
113 1.1% 3%  
114 1.3% 2%  
115 0.5% 1.0%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.4% 99.3%  
81 0.6% 98.9% Last Result
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 4% 94%  
85 7% 90% Majority
86 6% 83%  
87 13% 78%  
88 5% 65% Median
89 17% 60%  
90 13% 43%  
91 7% 30%  
92 7% 23%  
93 5% 16%  
94 4% 11%  
95 1.4% 8%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.9% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 98.9%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 1.0% 98% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 5% 95%  
83 5% 90%  
84 6% 85%  
85 10% 79% Majority
86 9% 69%  
87 6% 60% Median
88 19% 54%  
89 11% 35%  
90 8% 24%  
91 5% 16%  
92 4% 11%  
93 3% 8%  
94 1.1% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 1.1% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 1.2% 99.2%  
77 1.4% 98%  
78 4% 97%  
79 11% 92%  
80 6% 82%  
81 5% 75%  
82 13% 70% Median
83 7% 58%  
84 21% 50%  
85 9% 29% Majority
86 5% 20%  
87 4% 15%  
88 2% 11% Last Result
89 3% 9%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 1.2% 99.2%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 11% 92%  
78 4% 81%  
79 9% 77%  
80 7% 68% Last Result, Median
81 23% 61%  
82 9% 38%  
83 7% 29%  
84 6% 22%  
85 5% 16% Majority
86 3% 12%  
87 2% 8%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.5% 1.1%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 1.1% 99.5%  
74 2% 98%  
75 1.1% 97%  
76 3% 96%  
77 4% 92%  
78 5% 89%  
79 8% 84%  
80 11% 76%  
81 19% 65%  
82 6% 46%  
83 9% 40% Median
84 10% 31%  
85 6% 21% Majority
86 5% 15%  
87 5% 10%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.0% 3% Last Result
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.9% 1.1%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.4%  
71 0.6% 99.2%  
72 0.8% 98.7%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 8% 94%  
76 8% 86%  
77 6% 78%  
78 8% 72%  
79 11% 64% Last Result, Median
80 23% 53%  
81 10% 29%  
82 3% 19%  
83 4% 16%  
84 4% 11%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 1.4% 4%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 0.7% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 1.4% 99.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 1.4% 94%  
75 4% 92%  
76 5% 89%  
77 7% 84%  
78 7% 77%  
79 13% 70%  
80 17% 57%  
81 5% 40%  
82 13% 35% Median
83 6% 22%  
84 7% 17%  
85 4% 10% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.6% 2% Last Result
89 0.4% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 99.6%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 1.1% 94%  
73 4% 93%  
74 6% 89%  
75 5% 83%  
76 9% 78%  
77 19% 69%  
78 8% 50%  
79 9% 41%  
80 11% 33% Last Result, Median
81 6% 22%  
82 4% 16%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.2% 1.1%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 1.2% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 6% 95%  
68 4% 89%  
69 7% 85%  
70 6% 77%  
71 8% 71%  
72 14% 63% Last Result
73 6% 49% Median
74 9% 43%  
75 22% 35%  
76 4% 13%  
77 4% 9%  
78 1.5% 5%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.0%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 0.9% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 10% 92%  
67 7% 81%  
68 7% 75%  
69 11% 67% Median
70 19% 56%  
71 10% 37%  
72 10% 27%  
73 3% 17%  
74 5% 14%  
75 2% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4% Last Result
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.4%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 1.0% 99.6%  
61 0.6% 98.6%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 10% 94%  
65 7% 85%  
66 9% 77%  
67 9% 69%  
68 11% 60% Median
69 21% 49%  
70 8% 28%  
71 8% 19%  
72 3% 12%  
73 4% 9%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.3% 3%  
76 0.4% 1.4% Last Result
77 0.4% 1.0%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.9%  
58 0.7% 99.3%  
59 0.6% 98.7%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 7% 94%  
63 8% 87%  
64 10% 79%  
65 9% 69%  
66 21% 60% Median
67 11% 39%  
68 9% 28% Last Result
69 6% 19%  
70 6% 13%  
71 3% 7%  
72 1.3% 4%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.3% 99.6%  
50 1.3% 98%  
51 3% 97%  
52 3% 94%  
53 4% 91%  
54 6% 87%  
55 6% 81%  
56 10% 74%  
57 23% 65%  
58 8% 41%  
59 4% 34% Median
60 12% 30%  
61 6% 18% Last Result
62 2% 12%  
63 3% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 1.2% 99.0%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 96%  
50 10% 93%  
51 10% 83%  
52 12% 73%  
53 15% 61% Median
54 10% 46%  
55 18% 36%  
56 7% 18%  
57 4% 11%  
58 4% 7%  
59 1.2% 3%  
60 0.9% 2% Last Result
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 1.0% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 3% 96%  
29 4% 93%  
30 16% 90%  
31 7% 74%  
32 5% 66%  
33 10% 62%  
34 11% 51%  
35 11% 41% Last Result, Median
36 7% 30%  
37 7% 23%  
38 7% 17%  
39 6% 10%  
40 1.0% 4%  
41 1.0% 3%  
42 0.7% 2%  
43 1.0% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations