Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 6–7 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 23.0% 21.1–25.0% 20.6–25.6% 20.1–26.1% 19.3–27.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.0% 19.2–23.0% 18.7–23.5% 18.3–24.0% 17.5–25.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.0% 15.3–18.8% 14.9–19.4% 14.5–19.8% 13.7–20.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.1% 11.6–14.8% 11.2–15.3% 10.9–15.7% 10.2–16.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.6–7.9% 5.3–8.3% 5.1–8.6% 4.6–9.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.1% 4.2–7.4% 3.8–8.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.8% 3.2–6.1% 2.8–6.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.5% 2.4–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 41 37–44 35–45 34–47 32–48
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 35–42 34–43 32–44 31–45
Senterpartiet 19 31 27–35 27–36 26–37 24–39
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–26 19–27 18–28 17–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–14 9–15 8–15 8–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 8–12 7–12 7–13 2–14
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–11 1–12
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.3%  
34 1.3% 98.5%  
35 2% 97%  
36 5% 95%  
37 6% 90%  
38 9% 84%  
39 10% 74%  
40 13% 65%  
41 19% 52% Median
42 10% 33%  
43 8% 22%  
44 7% 14%  
45 2% 7% Last Result
46 2% 5%  
47 1.1% 3%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.6%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 1.3% 97%  
34 3% 96%  
35 5% 93%  
36 7% 89%  
37 11% 81%  
38 10% 70%  
39 18% 60% Median
40 18% 42%  
41 13% 24%  
42 5% 11%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.7%  
25 0.8% 99.2%  
26 2% 98%  
27 7% 97%  
28 7% 90%  
29 13% 82%  
30 17% 69%  
31 8% 52% Median
32 9% 44%  
33 4% 36%  
34 19% 31%  
35 5% 12%  
36 3% 7%  
37 1.2% 4%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 6% 97%  
20 8% 90%  
21 15% 82%  
22 8% 67%  
23 11% 59% Median
24 12% 48%  
25 20% 36%  
26 7% 16%  
27 5% 9% Last Result
28 2% 4%  
29 1.0% 1.5%  
30 0.3% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 13% 97%  
10 22% 84%  
11 18% 63% Last Result, Median
12 16% 45%  
13 13% 29%  
14 10% 16%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.0% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 0.8% 99.9%  
3 0.4% 99.0%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0.1% 98.6%  
7 4% 98%  
8 18% 95%  
9 30% 77% Median
10 20% 47%  
11 15% 27%  
12 7% 12%  
13 3% 5%  
14 0.9% 1.2%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 20% 98%  
3 0% 79%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 1.3% 79%  
7 26% 77%  
8 26% 51% Median
9 17% 25%  
10 6% 9%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 48% 98%  
3 0.5% 50% Median
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 2% 50%  
7 22% 48%  
8 20% 26% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.8% 1.2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 36% 98%  
2 16% 62% Median
3 24% 46%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 4% 22%  
7 11% 18%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 102 100% 98–107 97–108 95–111 93–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 98 99.9% 93–103 91–105 90–105 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 99.1% 89–99 88–101 87–102 84–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 96% 86–97 85–97 84–98 80–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 80% 83–93 81–95 80–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 28% 78–88 76–89 75–91 72–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 81 20% 76–86 74–88 74–89 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 19% 77–86 75–87 74–88 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.5% 68–79 66–80 65–81 63–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 71 0.1% 66–76 64–78 64–79 62–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 64–74 63–76 63–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 69 0% 63–73 62–75 60–76 57–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 59–68 58–70 56–71 54–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 48 0% 43–53 42–55 41–57 39–59
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 50 0% 46–54 45–55 44–56 42–58
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 34–44 33–46 31–47 29–50

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.4% 99.7%  
94 0.5% 99.3%  
95 2% 98.8%  
96 2% 97%  
97 2% 96%  
98 7% 93%  
99 6% 87%  
100 8% 80% Median
101 11% 72%  
102 12% 62%  
103 12% 50%  
104 16% 38%  
105 4% 22%  
106 4% 18%  
107 5% 14% Last Result
108 4% 9%  
109 1.0% 5%  
110 0.9% 4%  
111 0.9% 3%  
112 0.3% 2%  
113 1.0% 1.4%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 1.0% 99.6%  
88 0.5% 98.6%  
89 0.5% 98%  
90 1.5% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 4% 95%  
93 6% 91%  
94 5% 85%  
95 9% 79%  
96 9% 70%  
97 7% 61%  
98 7% 54% Median
99 14% 47%  
100 11% 33%  
101 6% 22%  
102 3% 16%  
103 5% 13%  
104 2% 8%  
105 4% 6%  
106 1.2% 2%  
107 0.7% 1.1%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.6%  
85 0.8% 99.1% Majority
86 0.5% 98%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 4% 96% Last Result
89 5% 93%  
90 5% 88%  
91 9% 82%  
92 13% 74% Median
93 16% 61%  
94 6% 45%  
95 5% 39%  
96 8% 34%  
97 6% 27%  
98 8% 21%  
99 4% 13%  
100 3% 9%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.3% 4%  
103 0.7% 2%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.6% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.5%  
82 0.6% 99.0%  
83 0.8% 98%  
84 2% 98%  
85 5% 96% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 4% 87%  
88 10% 83%  
89 9% 73%  
90 10% 64% Median
91 9% 54%  
92 13% 46%  
93 10% 33%  
94 4% 23%  
95 6% 19%  
96 3% 13%  
97 5% 10%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.4% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.0%  
101 0.4% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 1.0% 99.4%  
79 0.8% 98%  
80 1.1% 98% Last Result
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 94%  
83 3% 92%  
84 8% 88%  
85 6% 80% Majority
86 6% 74%  
87 9% 68%  
88 10% 59%  
89 7% 49% Median
90 14% 41%  
91 8% 27%  
92 6% 19%  
93 3% 12%  
94 5% 10%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.4%  
98 0.7% 1.0%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.4%  
74 1.1% 98.8%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 96%  
77 2% 93% Last Result
78 9% 90%  
79 4% 81%  
80 7% 77%  
81 12% 70% Median
82 6% 58%  
83 17% 51%  
84 7% 34%  
85 4% 28% Majority
86 4% 23%  
87 4% 19%  
88 7% 14%  
89 3% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 0.9% 3%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.1% 1.3%  
94 0.2% 1.2%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.4% 0.4%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.0%  
73 1.0% 98.6%  
74 3% 98%  
75 5% 95%  
76 3% 90%  
77 6% 87%  
78 8% 81% Median
79 14% 73%  
80 7% 58%  
81 10% 51%  
82 9% 41%  
83 6% 31%  
84 6% 26%  
85 8% 20% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 6%  
89 1.1% 4% Last Result
90 0.8% 2%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 99.7%  
73 0.7% 99.1%  
74 1.1% 98%  
75 4% 97%  
76 3% 94%  
77 6% 91%  
78 8% 84%  
79 6% 76% Last Result
80 9% 70%  
81 11% 61% Median
82 10% 50%  
83 14% 40%  
84 7% 27%  
85 4% 19% Majority
86 7% 15%  
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 1.0% 99.2%  
65 1.2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 3% 95%  
68 4% 91%  
69 8% 87%  
70 9% 80%  
71 9% 71%  
72 9% 62% Median
73 8% 53%  
74 17% 45%  
75 4% 28%  
76 4% 24% Last Result
77 6% 20%  
78 3% 14%  
79 3% 11%  
80 5% 9%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.3% 1.5%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.5%  
63 1.2% 98.8%  
64 4% 98%  
65 2% 94%  
66 5% 92%  
67 3% 87%  
68 6% 84%  
69 11% 78% Median
70 15% 67%  
71 7% 53%  
72 7% 46%  
73 9% 39%  
74 9% 30%  
75 5% 21%  
76 6% 15%  
77 4% 9%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.5% 4%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 1.0% 1.3%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.3%  
63 3% 98%  
64 5% 94%  
65 3% 89%  
66 5% 87%  
67 7% 82%  
68 9% 75% Last Result
69 9% 66%  
70 10% 56% Median
71 10% 47%  
72 9% 36%  
73 11% 28%  
74 8% 17%  
75 3% 9%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.5% 4%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.8% 1.0%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 0.7% 99.2%  
59 0.8% 98.5%  
60 1.0% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 7% 93%  
64 5% 85%  
65 6% 81%  
66 5% 75%  
67 6% 70% Median
68 10% 63%  
69 18% 54%  
70 8% 35%  
71 7% 28%  
72 7% 20%  
73 4% 13%  
74 3% 9%  
75 3% 6%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.3% 1.5%  
79 0.9% 1.2%  
80 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 1.2% 98%  
57 1.1% 97%  
58 3% 96%  
59 3% 93%  
60 4% 90%  
61 14% 86%  
62 17% 72%  
63 10% 55%  
64 6% 45% Median
65 11% 39%  
66 10% 29%  
67 7% 19%  
68 4% 12%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 6%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.7% 2% Last Result
73 0.7% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.8% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.6%  
42 3% 97%  
43 6% 94%  
44 8% 88%  
45 7% 80%  
46 6% 74% Median
47 7% 68%  
48 11% 61%  
49 16% 49%  
50 11% 34%  
51 5% 23%  
52 6% 18%  
53 5% 12%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 0.7% 3%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.4% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.5%  
43 0.8% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 5% 94%  
47 5% 89%  
48 11% 84%  
49 14% 73%  
50 16% 59% Median
51 11% 44%  
52 13% 32%  
53 5% 19%  
54 7% 14%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 2% 97%  
33 4% 95%  
34 6% 91%  
35 5% 85% Last Result
36 9% 80% Median
37 5% 71%  
38 9% 65%  
39 13% 57%  
40 9% 43%  
41 4% 35%  
42 15% 31%  
43 4% 16%  
44 2% 12%  
45 3% 10%  
46 2% 6%  
47 1.4% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.6% 1.3%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations