Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 6–12 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.8% 18.2–21.5% 17.8–22.0% 17.4–22.4% 16.7–23.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 43 39–47 38–48 37–49 36–50
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 35–41 34–42 33–43 31–45
Senterpartiet 19 36 33–40 33–41 32–42 30–44
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 22–28 21–28 20–29 19–30
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–9
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–7 1–7 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.6%  
37 1.3% 98%  
38 2% 97%  
39 8% 95%  
40 5% 87%  
41 8% 82%  
42 13% 74%  
43 13% 60% Median
44 10% 48%  
45 22% 38% Last Result
46 6% 16%  
47 4% 11%  
48 4% 7%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.4%  
33 1.5% 98.6%  
34 3% 97%  
35 6% 94%  
36 6% 88%  
37 15% 82%  
38 17% 67%  
39 14% 51% Median
40 20% 36%  
41 8% 17%  
42 4% 9%  
43 4% 5%  
44 0.8% 1.5%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.7%  
31 1.3% 99.1%  
32 3% 98%  
33 8% 95%  
34 14% 87%  
35 15% 73%  
36 18% 58% Median
37 9% 40%  
38 9% 31%  
39 10% 22%  
40 6% 12%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.9% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.7%  
20 2% 99.3%  
21 4% 97%  
22 12% 93%  
23 21% 82%  
24 12% 60% Median
25 16% 49%  
26 11% 32%  
27 10% 21% Last Result
28 7% 10%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 1.0%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.7%  
10 9% 97%  
11 23% 88% Last Result
12 31% 65% Median
13 19% 34%  
14 9% 15%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 16% 93%  
3 7% 78%  
4 0.1% 71%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0.1% 70%  
7 8% 70%  
8 35% 62% Median
9 18% 27%  
10 8% 9%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 19% 99.3%  
2 52% 80% Median
3 6% 29%  
4 0% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 0.6% 23%  
7 8% 22%  
8 11% 14% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 44% 100% Last Result
2 45% 56% Median
3 0% 11%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.1% 11%  
7 9% 10%  
8 0.4% 2%  
9 1.2% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9%  
2 76% 92% Median
3 2% 16%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0.6% 14%  
7 6% 13%  
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 109 100% 106–115 104–116 103–118 100–120
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 99.9% 92–101 90–102 89–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 96 99.9% 91–100 90–101 88–102 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 98.7% 89–98 87–99 86–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 92% 85–94 84–95 82–96 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 73% 83–91 82–92 80–94 78–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 50% 80–89 78–90 76–92 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 80 8% 75–84 74–85 73–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 4% 74–83 72–84 72–86 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.2% 71–79 70–80 69–81 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 73 0.1% 69–78 68–79 67–81 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 66–75 65–76 62–78 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 63–72 61–74 60–75 57–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 51 0% 47–54 46–55 45–56 42–58
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 45–54 43–55 42–56 41–58
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 41 0% 38–48 37–50 36–51 34–54

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.5% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.3%  
102 0.7% 99.0%  
103 2% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 94%  
106 4% 92%  
107 13% 88% Last Result, Median
108 13% 74%  
109 15% 61%  
110 12% 47%  
111 6% 35%  
112 6% 29%  
113 7% 22%  
114 4% 16%  
115 3% 11%  
116 4% 8%  
117 2% 5%  
118 0.8% 3%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 1.1% 1.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.4% 99.9%  
87 1.1% 99.4%  
88 0.7% 98% Last Result
89 0.7% 98%  
90 3% 97%  
91 3% 94%  
92 4% 91%  
93 5% 86%  
94 10% 81%  
95 9% 71%  
96 11% 62%  
97 12% 51% Median
98 11% 39%  
99 6% 28%  
100 7% 22%  
101 9% 15%  
102 2% 6%  
103 1.3% 4%  
104 0.8% 3%  
105 0.5% 2%  
106 1.4% 2%  
107 0% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.4% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.5%  
87 0.9% 99.2%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 3% 95%  
91 5% 92%  
92 8% 87%  
93 7% 79%  
94 7% 72%  
95 14% 65%  
96 12% 52%  
97 15% 39% Median
98 8% 25%  
99 3% 17%  
100 5% 13%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 5%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.8%  
84 0.5% 99.3%  
85 1.0% 98.7% Majority
86 1.5% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 4% 91%  
90 8% 87%  
91 7% 79%  
92 8% 72%  
93 13% 64%  
94 10% 51%  
95 14% 40% Median
96 10% 26%  
97 6% 17%  
98 3% 11%  
99 5% 8%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.7% 1.3%  
102 0.4% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.7% 99.2%  
82 1.0% 98%  
83 1.5% 97%  
84 4% 96%  
85 6% 92% Majority
86 13% 85%  
87 8% 72%  
88 10% 64%  
89 15% 55% Median
90 9% 39%  
91 7% 30%  
92 6% 23%  
93 6% 17%  
94 3% 11%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.9%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 99.8%  
79 1.1% 99.3% Last Result
80 2% 98%  
81 1.4% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 6% 93%  
84 15% 87%  
85 7% 73% Majority
86 12% 66%  
87 13% 54% Median
88 14% 41%  
89 7% 27%  
90 7% 21%  
91 6% 13%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.3% 5%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.7% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 1.1% 99.4%  
76 1.0% 98%  
77 1.4% 97% Last Result
78 3% 96%  
79 3% 93%  
80 5% 90%  
81 7% 85%  
82 9% 78%  
83 13% 70%  
84 6% 57%  
85 6% 50% Median, Majority
86 17% 44%  
87 6% 27%  
88 5% 21%  
89 9% 16%  
90 2% 7%  
91 1.2% 5%  
92 1.3% 4%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.9% 1.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 1.2% 99.1%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 3% 92%  
76 6% 89%  
77 6% 83%  
78 7% 77%  
79 9% 70% Median
80 15% 61%  
81 10% 45%  
82 8% 36%  
83 13% 28%  
84 6% 15%  
85 4% 8% Majority
86 1.5% 4%  
87 1.0% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98.6%  
72 3% 98%  
73 4% 95%  
74 14% 91%  
75 4% 77%  
76 10% 73% Last Result
77 8% 63% Median
78 17% 55%  
79 7% 38%  
80 8% 32%  
81 8% 24%  
82 4% 15%  
83 2% 12%  
84 5% 9%  
85 1.4% 4% Majority
86 0.9% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.4%  
68 1.1% 98.9% Last Result
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 7% 94%  
72 14% 87%  
73 7% 73%  
74 11% 66%  
75 12% 55% Median
76 18% 43%  
77 8% 25%  
78 6% 17%  
79 4% 11%  
80 3% 7%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 95%  
69 5% 92%  
70 3% 87%  
71 8% 83% Median
72 15% 75%  
73 12% 61%  
74 14% 48%  
75 7% 35%  
76 7% 28%  
77 8% 21%  
78 5% 13%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 0.9% 97%  
64 1.1% 96%  
65 3% 95%  
66 9% 92%  
67 4% 83%  
68 7% 79%  
69 11% 73% Median
70 13% 62%  
71 11% 48%  
72 13% 37%  
73 5% 25%  
74 7% 20%  
75 4% 12%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.5% 1.5%  
80 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.1%  
60 3% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 1.5% 94%  
63 6% 93%  
64 9% 87%  
65 5% 78%  
66 8% 73%  
67 9% 65% Median
68 13% 55%  
69 9% 42%  
70 13% 33%  
71 5% 20%  
72 5% 15% Last Result
73 4% 9%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.3% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.5%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.3% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 99.1%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 5% 92%  
48 8% 87%  
49 12% 79%  
50 15% 67%  
51 16% 52% Median
52 13% 36%  
53 9% 23%  
54 6% 14%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 3% 91%  
46 10% 88%  
47 12% 79% Median
48 8% 67%  
49 22% 59%  
50 6% 37%  
51 9% 31%  
52 6% 22%  
53 5% 16%  
54 5% 11%  
55 2% 6%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.9% 1.5%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
36 2% 99.0%  
37 2% 97%  
38 9% 95%  
39 17% 86%  
40 15% 69% Median
41 5% 54%  
42 6% 49%  
43 13% 43%  
44 6% 30%  
45 3% 24%  
46 4% 20%  
47 3% 17%  
48 5% 13%  
49 3% 9%  
50 3% 5%  
51 0.7% 3%  
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.9%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations