Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 12–18 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.3% 22.6–26.2% 22.1–26.7% 21.7–27.1% 20.9–28.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.3–25.8% 20.9–26.3% 20.1–27.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.6% 15.2–18.3% 14.8–18.7% 14.4–19.1% 13.7–19.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.5–15.1% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 40–48 39–49 39–50 36–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–46 40–48 39–49 37–50
Senterpartiet 19 31 28–34 27–35 26–36 25–37
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 21–27 20–28 20–28 19–30
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.4%  
38 1.0% 98.9%  
39 4% 98%  
40 4% 94%  
41 7% 90%  
42 11% 83%  
43 12% 72%  
44 18% 59% Median
45 12% 42% Last Result
46 12% 30%  
47 5% 18%  
48 6% 13%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.3% 1.1%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.5% 99.4%  
39 2% 98%  
40 10% 96%  
41 13% 86%  
42 13% 74%  
43 11% 61% Median
44 13% 50%  
45 19% 37%  
46 9% 18%  
47 4% 9%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 3% Last Result
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.7%  
26 2% 99.2%  
27 3% 97%  
28 9% 94%  
29 9% 85%  
30 18% 76%  
31 17% 58% Median
32 14% 40%  
33 11% 27%  
34 8% 16%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.6%  
20 4% 98.6%  
21 8% 94%  
22 9% 86%  
23 9% 77%  
24 15% 69%  
25 15% 54% Median
26 12% 39%  
27 18% 27% Last Result
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0.1% 99.7%  
8 2% 99.6%  
9 10% 98%  
10 23% 88%  
11 29% 65% Last Result, Median
12 23% 36%  
13 9% 14%  
14 3% 5%  
15 0.9% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 41% 98%  
3 0% 58%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0.1% 58%  
7 9% 58% Median
8 29% 49%  
9 12% 20%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.3% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 32% 100% Last Result
2 15% 68%  
3 18% 53% Median
4 0.2% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 10% 34%  
8 17% 24%  
9 5% 7%  
10 1.3% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 35% 99.4%  
2 17% 65% Median
3 26% 48%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0.1% 22%  
7 7% 22%  
8 14% 16% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 11% 99.1%  
2 83% 88% Median
3 0.3% 5%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 1.0% 4%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 105 100% 100–110 98–112 97–113 94–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 95 99.7% 89–100 88–101 87–102 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 92 98% 88–98 86–100 85–101 82–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 91 96% 86–95 85–96 84–98 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 89% 84–95 83–96 82–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 63% 81–90 80–91 79–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 22% 76–87 74–89 74–90 71–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 4% 73–82 71–84 71–85 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 78 4% 74–83 73–84 71–85 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 74 0.3% 69–80 68–81 67–82 63–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.1% 70–78 69–80 68–81 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 66–75 64–77 63–78 60–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 64–73 62–75 61–76 58–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–58 50–59 49–60 47–62
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 45–54 45–55 43–57 42–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 37 0% 32–41 31–42 31–43 29–46

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.5% 99.9%  
95 0.5% 99.4%  
96 1.3% 98.9%  
97 2% 98%  
98 1.4% 96%  
99 3% 94%  
100 3% 91%  
101 5% 89%  
102 3% 84%  
103 12% 81%  
104 18% 69% Median
105 9% 50%  
106 4% 41%  
107 14% 37% Last Result
108 7% 23%  
109 3% 16%  
110 4% 13%  
111 4% 10%  
112 2% 6%  
113 2% 4%  
114 2% 2%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.7% Majority
86 1.1% 99.4%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 5% 97%  
89 3% 93%  
90 2% 90%  
91 5% 88%  
92 6% 83%  
93 8% 77%  
94 11% 69%  
95 11% 58% Median
96 17% 48%  
97 6% 30%  
98 8% 25%  
99 5% 17%  
100 5% 11%  
101 3% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.3% 2%  
104 0.2% 0.9%  
105 0.2% 0.7%  
106 0.3% 0.5%  
107 0.2% 0.2%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.6% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.3%  
84 0.9% 99.0%  
85 1.2% 98% Majority
86 4% 97%  
87 2% 92%  
88 8% 91% Last Result
89 10% 82%  
90 7% 72% Median
91 6% 65%  
92 11% 59%  
93 7% 49%  
94 9% 42%  
95 10% 33%  
96 6% 23%  
97 4% 17%  
98 5% 14%  
99 3% 9%  
100 2% 5%  
101 0.7% 3%  
102 0.3% 2%  
103 0.3% 2%  
104 1.3% 1.4%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.5% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.2%  
83 0.8% 98.7%  
84 2% 98%  
85 4% 96% Majority
86 4% 92%  
87 6% 88%  
88 5% 82%  
89 5% 76%  
90 14% 72%  
91 11% 57%  
92 6% 46% Median
93 13% 40%  
94 8% 27%  
95 10% 19%  
96 4% 9%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.3%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.7% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 4% 93%  
85 6% 89% Majority
86 7% 83%  
87 9% 76%  
88 12% 67% Median
89 10% 55%  
90 6% 45%  
91 6% 39%  
92 11% 33%  
93 7% 22%  
94 5% 15%  
95 2% 10%  
96 5% 8%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.7% 1.4%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.5%  
78 0.6% 98.8%  
79 3% 98% Last Result
80 3% 96%  
81 6% 93%  
82 11% 87%  
83 5% 76%  
84 8% 71%  
85 16% 63% Median, Majority
86 7% 47%  
87 10% 40%  
88 10% 30%  
89 9% 20%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.2%  
73 1.0% 99.0%  
74 4% 98%  
75 1.5% 94%  
76 4% 93%  
77 6% 89% Last Result
78 10% 84%  
79 8% 74% Median
80 7% 66%  
81 8% 59%  
82 10% 52%  
83 12% 41%  
84 7% 29%  
85 6% 22% Majority
86 5% 16%  
87 3% 11%  
88 2% 8%  
89 3% 6%  
90 0.9% 3%  
91 0.3% 2%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 1.3% 1.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.2%  
70 1.2% 98.9%  
71 4% 98%  
72 3% 93%  
73 5% 90%  
74 5% 85%  
75 8% 81%  
76 8% 73% Last Result, Median
77 17% 65%  
78 9% 49%  
79 8% 40%  
80 11% 32%  
81 6% 20%  
82 5% 14%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 3% 4% Majority
86 0.7% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 1.0% 99.4%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 4% 95%  
74 10% 91%  
75 8% 81%  
76 13% 73% Median
77 6% 60%  
78 11% 54%  
79 14% 43%  
80 5% 28%  
81 5% 24%  
82 6% 18%  
83 4% 12%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.5%  
65 0.2% 99.3%  
66 1.3% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 5% 93%  
70 5% 89%  
71 8% 83%  
72 6% 75%  
73 17% 70% Median
74 11% 52%  
75 11% 42%  
76 8% 31%  
77 6% 23%  
78 5% 17%  
79 2% 12%  
80 3% 10%  
81 5% 7%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 1.0% 99.1%  
68 2% 98% Last Result
69 3% 97%  
70 7% 94%  
71 8% 86%  
72 7% 78%  
73 7% 71%  
74 12% 64% Median
75 11% 51%  
76 16% 40%  
77 7% 24%  
78 8% 17%  
79 2% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.6%  
61 0.3% 99.4%  
62 1.2% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 0.7% 96%  
65 3% 95%  
66 4% 92%  
67 5% 88%  
68 7% 83%  
69 10% 76%  
70 11% 66%  
71 5% 56% Median
72 20% 50%  
73 12% 30%  
74 4% 19%  
75 7% 15%  
76 2% 8%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.4%  
80 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.3% 99.4%  
60 1.3% 99.1%  
61 2% 98%  
62 1.3% 96%  
63 3% 94%  
64 4% 92%  
65 4% 87%  
66 7% 83%  
67 10% 76%  
68 12% 66%  
69 6% 54% Median
70 19% 48%  
71 12% 29%  
72 3% 17% Last Result
73 6% 13%  
74 2% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 0.6% 99.4%  
49 1.4% 98.8%  
50 5% 97%  
51 12% 93%  
52 9% 81%  
53 7% 72%  
54 13% 65% Median
55 17% 53%  
56 15% 36%  
57 9% 21%  
58 4% 12%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 0.7% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.2% 99.7%  
43 1.4% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 7% 95%  
46 9% 88%  
47 9% 78%  
48 12% 69% Median
49 13% 57%  
50 7% 44%  
51 8% 37%  
52 8% 28%  
53 6% 21%  
54 7% 14%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.3% 3%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.2% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 1.2% 99.2%  
31 6% 98%  
32 3% 92%  
33 14% 89%  
34 10% 76%  
35 5% 65% Last Result, Median
36 9% 60%  
37 17% 51%  
38 8% 34%  
39 8% 26%  
40 7% 18%  
41 5% 11%  
42 2% 6%  
43 2% 4%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations