Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 19–21 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 22.3% 20.4–24.4% 19.9–25.0% 19.4–25.5% 18.5–26.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 19.6% 17.8–21.6% 17.3–22.1% 16.8–22.6% 16.0–23.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.8% 16.0–19.7% 15.6–20.2% 15.2–20.7% 14.4–21.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.7% 11.2–14.4% 10.8–14.9% 10.4–15.3% 9.8–16.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.3% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.8–8.4% 4.3–9.0%
Rødt 2.4% 5.4% 4.4–6.6% 4.2–7.0% 3.9–7.3% 3.6–7.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.5% 3.0–7.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.2–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 40 34–44 34–45 33–46 32–48
Arbeiderpartiet 49 38 32–40 30–41 29–42 27–44
Senterpartiet 19 33 29–38 28–39 27–40 26–42
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 18–26 18–26 17–27 15–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–12 8–13 7–14 6–15
Rødt 1 8 7–10 6–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 3–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.8%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 6% 96%  
35 4% 89%  
36 5% 86%  
37 6% 81%  
38 9% 75%  
39 10% 66%  
40 22% 56% Median
41 10% 34%  
42 9% 24%  
43 5% 15%  
44 5% 11%  
45 3% 6% Last Result
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 1.2%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 0.9% 99.2%  
29 1.2% 98%  
30 3% 97%  
31 3% 94%  
32 3% 91%  
33 4% 88%  
34 11% 84%  
35 8% 73%  
36 6% 65%  
37 8% 59%  
38 19% 52% Median
39 11% 33%  
40 12% 21%  
41 5% 9%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.5% 2%  
44 0.8% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.7% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 4% 97%  
29 5% 93%  
30 9% 88%  
31 9% 79%  
32 16% 70%  
33 8% 54% Median
34 8% 47%  
35 14% 39%  
36 8% 25%  
37 5% 17%  
38 4% 12%  
39 4% 8%  
40 1.5% 3%  
41 0.8% 2%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.4% 99.7%  
16 0.7% 99.3%  
17 2% 98.6%  
18 15% 97%  
19 7% 82%  
20 12% 75%  
21 10% 63%  
22 5% 53% Median
23 13% 49%  
24 10% 35%  
25 12% 25%  
26 10% 14%  
27 3% 4% Last Result
28 0.6% 1.1%  
29 0.2% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0.6% 99.8%  
7 4% 99.2%  
8 12% 95%  
9 28% 83%  
10 26% 56% Median
11 12% 30% Last Result
12 10% 17%  
13 5% 8%  
14 1.5% 3%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 3% 100%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0.1% 97%  
6 6% 97%  
7 26% 91%  
8 27% 65% Median
9 18% 38%  
10 11% 20%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 6% 98%  
3 4% 92%  
4 0.2% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 14% 88%  
7 35% 74% Median
8 21% 39%  
9 13% 17%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.1% 1.4%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 18% 99.6%  
2 27% 81%  
3 17% 55% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0.2% 38%  
6 16% 38%  
7 15% 22%  
8 5% 7% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 32% 94%  
2 59% 62% Median
3 0.7% 3%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0.2% 2%  
6 1.2% 2%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 95–106 94–108 92–108 90–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 95 98.9% 89–101 88–102 86–103 84–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 90 94% 86–96 84–98 83–100 79–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 79% 82–93 81–95 80–96 77–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 73% 81–93 80–94 78–95 75–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 22% 76–86 74–88 72–90 68–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 12% 74–85 73–86 72–88 69–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.6% 69–79 67–82 66–83 63–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 74 0.6% 68–80 66–82 65–82 62–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 65–75 64–77 62–77 59–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 67 0% 61–73 60–74 59–76 57–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 58–68 57–69 55–71 53–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 56–66 55–67 53–69 52–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 47 0% 42–50 40–52 38–53 36–55
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 44 0% 40–50 38–52 38–53 37–55
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 38 0% 34–44 33–47 32–47 30–50

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.6% 99.8%  
91 2% 99.3%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 0.9% 96%  
94 1.2% 95%  
95 5% 94%  
96 7% 89%  
97 4% 82%  
98 13% 78%  
99 15% 65%  
100 10% 50% Median
101 6% 40%  
102 8% 35%  
103 3% 27%  
104 8% 23%  
105 4% 15%  
106 3% 11%  
107 3% 8% Last Result
108 3% 5%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.5%  
111 0.3% 1.0%  
112 0.4% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.6% 99.5%  
85 0.8% 98.9% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 0.8% 97%  
88 5% 96%  
89 4% 90%  
90 3% 86%  
91 5% 83%  
92 5% 78%  
93 11% 73%  
94 7% 62%  
95 8% 55%  
96 9% 47% Median
97 10% 39%  
98 6% 29%  
99 6% 23%  
100 4% 17%  
101 6% 13%  
102 3% 7%  
103 1.3% 3%  
104 0.6% 2%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.6%  
80 0.5% 99.4%  
81 0.9% 99.0%  
82 0.6% 98%  
83 1.5% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 3% 94% Majority
86 8% 91%  
87 6% 83%  
88 15% 77% Last Result
89 5% 62%  
90 9% 57%  
91 6% 48% Median
92 8% 42%  
93 3% 34%  
94 10% 31%  
95 7% 21%  
96 6% 14%  
97 2% 8%  
98 2% 6%  
99 0.9% 4%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.4% 0.9%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.1%  
79 1.1% 98.7%  
80 1.4% 98% Last Result
81 5% 96%  
82 2% 91%  
83 5% 89%  
84 5% 84%  
85 4% 79% Majority
86 13% 75%  
87 7% 62%  
88 8% 55%  
89 8% 47% Median
90 6% 39%  
91 9% 33%  
92 9% 24%  
93 5% 15%  
94 4% 10%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.6% 99.2%  
77 0.6% 98.7%  
78 0.7% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 96% Last Result
81 6% 93%  
82 5% 86%  
83 4% 81%  
84 4% 77%  
85 7% 73% Majority
86 11% 66%  
87 10% 55%  
88 9% 45% Median
89 10% 36%  
90 5% 26%  
91 2% 21%  
92 7% 18%  
93 6% 11%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.7% 1.4%  
97 0.3% 0.8%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.4%  
70 0.8% 99.2%  
71 0.4% 98%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 1.2% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 93%  
76 4% 91%  
77 8% 86% Last Result
78 11% 78%  
79 13% 67%  
80 5% 54%  
81 6% 49% Median
82 7% 42%  
83 5% 36%  
84 9% 31%  
85 8% 22% Majority
86 6% 14%  
87 3% 8%  
88 1.2% 6%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.3% 1.0%  
92 0.5% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.2%  
71 0.8% 98.9%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 6% 94%  
75 3% 88%  
76 6% 85%  
77 8% 79%  
78 5% 71%  
79 14% 66% Last Result
80 6% 52%  
81 9% 46% Median
82 8% 37%  
83 5% 29%  
84 12% 24%  
85 3% 12% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.4%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.3% 99.3%  
65 0.9% 98.9%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 3% 93%  
69 6% 90%  
70 7% 85%  
71 10% 78%  
72 13% 68%  
73 6% 55%  
74 5% 49% Median
75 7% 44%  
76 9% 37% Last Result
77 4% 27%  
78 5% 23%  
79 9% 18%  
80 1.5% 9%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.4%  
64 0.8% 99.1%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 1.5% 94%  
68 3% 92%  
69 7% 89%  
70 10% 81%  
71 4% 71%  
72 5% 67%  
73 7% 62%  
74 17% 54% Median
75 5% 38%  
76 4% 32%  
77 4% 29%  
78 7% 25%  
79 5% 18%  
80 6% 13%  
81 1.1% 7%  
82 3% 6%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.3%  
61 0.8% 99.1%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 9% 93%  
66 4% 83%  
67 5% 79%  
68 8% 74% Last Result
69 8% 66%  
70 14% 57%  
71 6% 43% Median
72 7% 37%  
73 7% 30%  
74 11% 23%  
75 4% 12%  
76 3% 8%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.1% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.8% 99.5%  
58 0.5% 98.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 7% 92%  
62 2% 85%  
63 8% 83%  
64 8% 75%  
65 5% 68%  
66 11% 63%  
67 12% 52% Median
68 4% 39%  
69 6% 35%  
70 7% 29%  
71 4% 23%  
72 4% 18%  
73 8% 15%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 1.5% 99.2%  
55 0.8% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 4% 95%  
58 5% 91%  
59 8% 86%  
60 7% 78%  
61 5% 71%  
62 9% 66%  
63 6% 56%  
64 7% 50% Median
65 18% 44%  
66 6% 26%  
67 9% 19%  
68 3% 10%  
69 2% 7%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.4% 1.4%  
73 0.5% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 2% 99.7%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 3% 92%  
57 4% 89%  
58 11% 84%  
59 6% 73%  
60 7% 67%  
61 6% 60%  
62 8% 54% Median
63 18% 46%  
64 5% 28%  
65 10% 22%  
66 4% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 0.9% 3%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.0%  
72 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.7%  
37 0.5% 99.5%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 0.9% 97%  
40 3% 96%  
41 2% 93%  
42 3% 91%  
43 6% 88%  
44 10% 82%  
45 6% 71%  
46 7% 66%  
47 15% 59%  
48 12% 44% Median
49 11% 32%  
50 11% 21%  
51 4% 10%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.6%  
38 4% 98%  
39 3% 94%  
40 3% 91%  
41 5% 87%  
42 10% 82%  
43 10% 72%  
44 14% 62%  
45 8% 48% Median
46 5% 40%  
47 9% 35%  
48 8% 26%  
49 4% 18%  
50 7% 15%  
51 2% 8%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 0.8% 99.2%  
32 2% 98%  
33 6% 97%  
34 3% 91%  
35 8% 88% Last Result
36 14% 80%  
37 5% 66%  
38 12% 61% Median
39 11% 48%  
40 9% 37%  
41 4% 28%  
42 4% 24%  
43 6% 20%  
44 4% 14%  
45 2% 10%  
46 3% 8%  
47 4% 5%  
48 0.6% 2%  
49 0.7% 1.3%  
50 0.2% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations