Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 20–25 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.2% 23.2–27.4% 22.6–28.0% 22.1–28.5% 21.2–29.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.5–25.6% 21.0–26.2% 20.5–26.7% 19.6–27.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.9% 13.2–16.7% 12.8–17.2% 12.4–17.7% 11.7–18.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.3% 10.8–14.0% 10.4–14.5% 10.1–14.9% 9.4–15.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.9% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.8% 6.1–10.2% 5.6–10.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 3.0–6.0% 2.6–6.6%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–50 41–51 40–52 37–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–46 39–48 37–50 36–52
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–31 23–32 22–33 21–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–17 11–18 11–19 10–20
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 1–10 1–10 1–11 1–12
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 0–7 0–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.4%  
39 0.9% 98.7%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 11% 90%  
43 9% 79%  
44 11% 70%  
45 10% 59% Last Result, Median
46 10% 49%  
47 7% 39%  
48 5% 32%  
49 15% 26%  
50 3% 11%  
51 4% 8%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.5% 99.6%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 2% 97%  
39 4% 95%  
40 13% 91%  
41 9% 78%  
42 20% 69% Median
43 18% 48%  
44 7% 30%  
45 8% 23%  
46 5% 15%  
47 2% 10%  
48 4% 8%  
49 0.9% 4% Last Result
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.8% 1.3%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.5%  
22 2% 98.7%  
23 4% 97%  
24 8% 93%  
25 16% 85%  
26 9% 69%  
27 15% 60% Median
28 17% 45%  
29 7% 29%  
30 8% 22%  
31 8% 14%  
32 2% 6%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 1.0% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.7%  
19 5% 96%  
20 11% 91%  
21 16% 80%  
22 14% 64% Median
23 21% 50%  
24 10% 29%  
25 9% 18%  
26 5% 10%  
27 2% 4% Last Result
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.9%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.8%  
11 4% 98.9% Last Result
12 10% 95%  
13 18% 85%  
14 19% 67% Median
15 20% 48%  
16 14% 28%  
17 9% 14%  
18 2% 5%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100% Last Result
2 17% 90%  
3 7% 72%  
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 0.3% 65%  
7 8% 65%  
8 31% 57% Median
9 16% 26%  
10 7% 10%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.7% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 55% 96% Median
3 0% 41%  
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0.3% 41%  
7 1.4% 41%  
8 34% 39%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 6% 99.8%  
2 63% 94% Median
3 7% 31%  
4 0% 25%  
5 0% 25%  
6 0.1% 25%  
7 1.4% 25%  
8 16% 23% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.2% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 35% 93%  
2 12% 58% Median
3 40% 46%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0.3% 6%  
7 2% 6%  
8 2% 4% Last Result
9 0.9% 1.4%  
10 0.3% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 96–107 94–108 93–110 90–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 95 99.2% 90–101 88–102 86–103 84–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 98% 88–98 86–100 85–101 82–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 93% 86–96 84–98 83–100 79–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 80% 83–94 82–96 81–97 78–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 50% 80–89 78–92 77–93 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 80 20% 75–86 73–87 72–88 69–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 78 7% 74–84 72–85 70–86 68–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 74 0.8% 68–79 67–81 66–83 63–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0.2% 65–77 65–80 63–81 61–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.2% 67–77 66–79 65–80 63–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 65–75 64–76 63–78 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 63–74 62–74 60–76 58–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–62 52–63 51–65 49–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 46–56 45–58 44–59 42–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–39 27–41 27–41 25–43

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.8% 99.4%  
92 0.8% 98.6%  
93 1.5% 98%  
94 2% 96%  
95 2% 94%  
96 9% 92%  
97 6% 83%  
98 10% 76% Median
99 6% 66%  
100 4% 61%  
101 7% 57%  
102 8% 50%  
103 12% 42%  
104 10% 31%  
105 3% 20%  
106 5% 17%  
107 3% 12% Last Result
108 4% 9%  
109 2% 5%  
110 0.8% 3%  
111 0.9% 2%  
112 0.8% 1.2%  
113 0.3% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100% Last Result
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 1.1% 99.2% Majority
86 1.4% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 3% 95%  
89 2% 93%  
90 4% 90%  
91 9% 86%  
92 7% 77%  
93 11% 70% Median
94 7% 59%  
95 9% 52%  
96 6% 43%  
97 4% 37%  
98 9% 33%  
99 5% 24%  
100 2% 19%  
101 9% 16%  
102 4% 7%  
103 1.3% 4%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.7% 1.4%  
106 0.3% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.5%  
84 0.8% 99.2%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 4% 95%  
88 3% 91% Last Result
89 9% 88%  
90 7% 79%  
91 7% 72%  
92 11% 65%  
93 10% 53% Median
94 11% 43%  
95 6% 32%  
96 9% 25%  
97 4% 17%  
98 4% 13%  
99 3% 8%  
100 2% 5%  
101 2% 4%  
102 0.5% 1.3%  
103 0.5% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
81 0.4% 98.9%  
82 1.0% 98.6%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 95%  
85 3% 93% Majority
86 6% 90%  
87 7% 84%  
88 7% 77%  
89 10% 71%  
90 12% 61%  
91 12% 49% Median
92 6% 38%  
93 11% 32%  
94 4% 20%  
95 3% 16%  
96 4% 13%  
97 3% 9%  
98 1.0% 6%  
99 2% 5%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.6% 99.4%  
80 1.1% 98.8% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 9% 94%  
84 5% 85%  
85 4% 80% Median, Majority
86 6% 76%  
87 7% 70%  
88 9% 63%  
89 9% 54%  
90 6% 45%  
91 11% 39%  
92 4% 28%  
93 11% 24%  
94 4% 13%  
95 2% 8%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.4%  
100 0.5% 0.8%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 99.4%  
76 1.0% 98.8%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94% Last Result
80 7% 91%  
81 14% 84%  
82 6% 71%  
83 6% 64% Median
84 8% 58%  
85 14% 50% Majority
86 7% 36%  
87 6% 29%  
88 5% 23%  
89 9% 18%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 0.7% 3%  
94 0.5% 2%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 99.1%  
71 0.8% 98.5%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 4% 91%  
76 11% 87%  
77 4% 76%  
78 11% 72%  
79 6% 61% Median
80 9% 55%  
81 9% 45%  
82 6% 36%  
83 6% 30%  
84 4% 24%  
85 5% 20% Majority
86 9% 15%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.1% 2% Last Result
90 0.6% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.7% 99.3%  
70 1.3% 98.7%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 93%  
74 7% 90%  
75 5% 83%  
76 7% 78%  
77 12% 71% Last Result
78 14% 59%  
79 5% 45% Median
80 6% 39%  
81 13% 33%  
82 7% 20%  
83 2% 14%  
84 5% 11%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 1.3% 4%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.7% 99.3%  
65 1.1% 98.6%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 9% 92%  
69 3% 83%  
70 5% 81%  
71 9% 76% Median
72 4% 67%  
73 6% 63%  
74 9% 57%  
75 7% 48%  
76 11% 40%  
77 7% 29%  
78 9% 23%  
79 4% 13%  
80 2% 9%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.8% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 0.8% 99.0%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 1.3% 97%  
65 7% 96%  
66 5% 89%  
67 4% 84%  
68 8% 81%  
69 6% 73% Median
70 5% 66%  
71 7% 61%  
72 11% 54%  
73 10% 43%  
74 4% 33%  
75 10% 29%  
76 7% 19%  
77 2% 12%  
78 3% 10%  
79 1.3% 6%  
80 3% 5% Last Result
81 1.1% 3%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.8% 1.2%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.8% 99.4%  
65 1.3% 98.6%  
66 3% 97%  
67 4% 94%  
68 6% 90%  
69 6% 84%  
70 13% 78%  
71 6% 66% Median
72 10% 60%  
73 15% 49%  
74 7% 34%  
75 11% 27%  
76 5% 16% Last Result
77 4% 11%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 0.8% 99.2%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 5% 95%  
66 5% 90%  
67 14% 85%  
68 6% 71% Last Result
69 10% 65% Median
70 14% 54%  
71 8% 41%  
72 10% 32%  
73 4% 23%  
74 7% 18%  
75 4% 11%  
76 3% 8%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 0.8% 3%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.1%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 0.9% 99.4%  
60 1.3% 98%  
61 1.0% 97%  
62 2% 96%  
63 8% 94%  
64 8% 85%  
65 7% 77%  
66 10% 70%  
67 7% 60% Median
68 7% 53%  
69 7% 47%  
70 8% 39%  
71 9% 31%  
72 9% 22% Last Result
73 3% 13%  
74 6% 11%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 95%  
53 4% 93%  
54 8% 89%  
55 11% 81%  
56 18% 70% Median
57 13% 52%  
58 9% 39%  
59 7% 30%  
60 5% 23% Last Result
61 8% 18%  
62 4% 10%  
63 2% 6%  
64 0.8% 4%  
65 1.3% 3%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.8% 99.2%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 4% 97%  
46 4% 93%  
47 10% 89%  
48 8% 79%  
49 5% 71% Median
50 7% 66%  
51 8% 59%  
52 7% 51%  
53 8% 45%  
54 11% 36%  
55 13% 26%  
56 3% 13%  
57 3% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 1.5% 4%  
60 0.5% 2%  
61 1.2% 2% Last Result
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 1.3% 99.1%  
27 4% 98%  
28 5% 93%  
29 7% 88%  
30 7% 81%  
31 10% 74% Median
32 11% 64%  
33 16% 53%  
34 7% 37%  
35 5% 30% Last Result
36 5% 26%  
37 6% 21%  
38 3% 15%  
39 4% 12%  
40 3% 8%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.0%  
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations