Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 28–31 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Høyre 25.0% 21.6% 20.0–23.4% 19.5–23.8% 19.2–24.3% 18.4–25.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.5% 15.9–22.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 38–43 37–44 36–44 34–46
Høyre 45 38 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–45
Senterpartiet 19 34 31–38 30–39 29–40 29–41
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–31
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–10 3–11 2–11 1–12
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.7%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 1.1% 99.1%  
36 2% 98%  
37 5% 96%  
38 11% 90%  
39 18% 80%  
40 22% 62% Median
41 15% 40%  
42 13% 25%  
43 6% 12%  
44 4% 6%  
45 0.8% 2%  
46 1.0% 1.4%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.7%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 6% 97%  
35 10% 90%  
36 9% 80%  
37 14% 71%  
38 10% 57% Median
39 9% 47%  
40 22% 38%  
41 9% 16%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.6%  
30 6% 97%  
31 6% 91%  
32 8% 85%  
33 19% 77%  
34 15% 58% Median
35 12% 44%  
36 15% 32%  
37 6% 17%  
38 5% 11%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.6%  
20 3% 99.1%  
21 4% 96%  
22 8% 91%  
23 16% 84%  
24 12% 68%  
25 14% 56% Median
26 23% 42%  
27 10% 19% Last Result
28 4% 9%  
29 3% 5%  
30 0.7% 1.3%  
31 0.5% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 2% 99.7%  
8 8% 98%  
9 21% 90%  
10 33% 69% Median
11 21% 36% Last Result
12 11% 15%  
13 2% 3%  
14 1.2% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100% Last Result
2 2% 99.1%  
3 4% 97%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0.7% 94%  
7 12% 93%  
8 20% 82%  
9 39% 62% Median
10 16% 23%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 39% 98%  
3 0% 59%  
4 0% 59%  
5 0% 59%  
6 0.8% 59%  
7 23% 58% Median
8 21% 36%  
9 11% 15%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 57% 99.0% Median
3 0.3% 42%  
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 3% 42%  
7 15% 39%  
8 19% 24% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 1.2% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 19% 99.6%  
2 36% 81% Median
3 16% 44%  
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0.6% 28%  
7 20% 28%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 0.8% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 100–110 99–111 98–112 96–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 98 100% 94–103 93–104 91–106 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 99.9% 92–100 90–102 88–103 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 99.0% 89–97 87–98 86–99 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 94% 85–95 84–96 83–98 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 73% 82–91 80–92 79–93 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 46% 80–88 79–90 78–92 76–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 79 6% 74–84 73–85 71–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 3% 74–82 72–84 71–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0.1% 70–78 70–79 68–80 67–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 71 0% 66–75 65–76 63–78 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 63–72 61–73 60–75 58–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 58–67 56–69 56–69 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 50 0% 47–53 46–54 45–55 43–58
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 46 0% 41–50 41–51 39–53 38–56
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 42 0% 37–48 37–49 36–50 33–53

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.6% 99.9%  
97 0.6% 99.3%  
98 1.3% 98.7%  
99 5% 97%  
100 9% 92%  
101 7% 83% Median
102 5% 77%  
103 12% 71%  
104 4% 59%  
105 8% 55%  
106 13% 47%  
107 5% 34% Last Result
108 14% 29%  
109 5% 15%  
110 3% 11%  
111 3% 7%  
112 3% 4%  
113 0.5% 1.3%  
114 0.3% 0.8%  
115 0.3% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 1.0% 99.4%  
91 1.1% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 4% 96%  
94 12% 91%  
95 7% 79%  
96 6% 72%  
97 7% 66%  
98 10% 59%  
99 8% 49%  
100 7% 40% Median
101 5% 34%  
102 17% 29%  
103 4% 12%  
104 4% 8%  
105 2% 4%  
106 1.3% 3%  
107 0.9% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.7% 99.6%  
88 2% 98.9% Last Result
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 2% 93%  
92 4% 91%  
93 5% 87%  
94 8% 82%  
95 10% 73% Median
96 8% 63%  
97 20% 55%  
98 6% 35%  
99 16% 29%  
100 4% 13%  
101 4% 9%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.5% 4%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.7% 1.5%  
106 0.6% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.4%  
85 1.3% 99.0% Majority
86 1.2% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 5% 95%  
89 4% 90%  
90 6% 86%  
91 9% 80%  
92 16% 71%  
93 13% 54% Median
94 6% 41%  
95 17% 35%  
96 7% 18%  
97 4% 11%  
98 3% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.1%  
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.7% 99.6%  
82 0.6% 98.8%  
83 1.4% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 10% 94% Majority
86 8% 85%  
87 7% 77%  
88 6% 70%  
89 8% 63%  
90 6% 55%  
91 11% 49% Median
92 9% 37%  
93 12% 28%  
94 6% 16%  
95 5% 11%  
96 2% 6%  
97 1.3% 4%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
78 1.1% 98.9%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 3% 97%  
81 3% 94%  
82 7% 91%  
83 3% 84%  
84 8% 81%  
85 13% 73% Median, Majority
86 7% 60%  
87 16% 53%  
88 16% 37%  
89 7% 21%  
90 4% 14%  
91 5% 11%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.2%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.8% 99.4%  
78 2% 98.6%  
79 3% 97% Last Result
80 4% 94%  
81 3% 90%  
82 9% 87%  
83 21% 78%  
84 11% 57% Median
85 7% 46% Majority
86 17% 39%  
87 8% 22%  
88 4% 14%  
89 3% 10%  
90 3% 6%  
91 0.9% 4%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.5% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 1.3% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 5% 94%  
75 6% 89%  
76 12% 84% Median
77 9% 72%  
78 11% 63%  
79 6% 51%  
80 8% 45%  
81 6% 37%  
82 7% 30%  
83 8% 23%  
84 10% 15%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.2%  
89 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.7%  
71 2% 98.9%  
72 4% 96%  
73 2% 93%  
74 8% 91%  
75 11% 83%  
76 5% 72% Last Result, Median
77 10% 67%  
78 15% 57%  
79 14% 42%  
80 8% 28%  
81 7% 20%  
82 5% 13%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.3% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.3% Last Result
69 2% 97%  
70 5% 95%  
71 2% 90%  
72 16% 87%  
73 13% 71%  
74 10% 58% Median
75 10% 48%  
76 18% 38%  
77 7% 20%  
78 5% 13%  
79 3% 8%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 99.4%  
63 1.3% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 4% 96%  
66 4% 92%  
67 17% 88% Median
68 5% 71%  
69 7% 66%  
70 8% 60%  
71 10% 51%  
72 7% 41%  
73 6% 34%  
74 7% 28%  
75 12% 21%  
76 4% 9%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 0.8% 98.9%  
60 1.5% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 3% 94%  
63 3% 91%  
64 7% 87%  
65 17% 80% Median
66 7% 64%  
67 8% 57%  
68 18% 49%  
69 6% 31%  
70 8% 25%  
71 6% 17%  
72 3% 11%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.2% 3%  
76 0.3% 1.3%  
77 0.7% 1.0%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.4%  
55 0.8% 98.8%  
56 3% 98%  
57 1.3% 95%  
58 6% 94%  
59 5% 87%  
60 10% 82%  
61 7% 72%  
62 9% 65%  
63 17% 56% Median
64 6% 39%  
65 6% 33%  
66 13% 27%  
67 5% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 4% 6%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.5%  
72 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.7% 99.3%  
45 2% 98.5%  
46 4% 97%  
47 7% 93%  
48 8% 86%  
49 9% 78%  
50 31% 69% Median
51 9% 38%  
52 10% 29%  
53 11% 19%  
54 4% 8%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.8% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.6%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 1.2% 96%  
41 7% 95%  
42 4% 88% Median
43 6% 84%  
44 16% 78%  
45 11% 62%  
46 7% 51%  
47 10% 43%  
48 6% 33%  
49 14% 28%  
50 5% 14%  
51 4% 9%  
52 1.4% 5%  
53 0.8% 3%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.4%  
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 0.7% 98.7% Last Result
36 3% 98%  
37 9% 95%  
38 4% 86% Median
39 8% 82%  
40 16% 74%  
41 7% 58%  
42 13% 50%  
43 4% 38%  
44 7% 34%  
45 6% 27%  
46 6% 21%  
47 4% 15%  
48 5% 11%  
49 2% 6%  
50 2% 5%  
51 0.5% 2%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations