Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 27 October–3 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.8–16.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 42–49 42–51 41–51 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 37–44 36–44 36–45 34–47
Senterpartiet 19 30 27–32 27–34 26–34 25–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 23–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 12–17 11–18 10–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–9 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.6%  
40 1.1% 99.2%  
41 3% 98%  
42 5% 95%  
43 6% 90%  
44 18% 84%  
45 10% 66% Last Result
46 11% 56% Median
47 23% 45%  
48 6% 23%  
49 8% 16%  
50 3% 9%  
51 3% 5%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 4% 98%  
37 4% 94%  
38 9% 90%  
39 6% 81%  
40 27% 75% Median
41 19% 48%  
42 11% 29%  
43 3% 18%  
44 11% 15%  
45 2% 3%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.7%  
26 3% 98.6%  
27 6% 96%  
28 14% 90%  
29 21% 75%  
30 11% 54% Median
31 20% 43%  
32 14% 23%  
33 3% 10%  
34 4% 6%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.6%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.1% 99.6%  
21 2% 98%  
22 6% 96%  
23 19% 91%  
24 31% 72% Median
25 18% 41%  
26 8% 22%  
27 6% 14% Last Result
28 6% 8%  
29 1.1% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 4% 99.4% Last Result
12 12% 96%  
13 23% 83%  
14 34% 61% Median
15 12% 27%  
16 9% 15%  
17 3% 5%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 3% 98%  
3 25% 95%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0% 70%  
7 10% 70%  
8 34% 60% Last Result, Median
9 22% 27%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 34% 99.9% Last Result
2 32% 66% Median
3 15% 34%  
4 0.1% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 2% 19%  
8 14% 17%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 17% 100% Last Result
2 67% 83% Median
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 6% 15%  
8 9% 10%  
9 1.1% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 22% 99.6%  
2 74% 77% Median
3 0.5% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 1.0% 3%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 109 100% 104–113 103–115 102–115 99–117
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 94 99.7% 90–98 89–99 87–100 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 90 95% 86–95 84–96 84–97 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 83% 83–91 82–93 81–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 77% 83–92 81–94 80–94 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 44% 80–89 79–89 78–92 76–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 83 23% 77–86 75–88 75–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 7% 76–84 74–85 73–87 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 79 5% 74–83 73–85 72–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 0.7% 73–81 72–83 70–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0% 69–76 67–78 65–78 64–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 67–75 65–75 64–77 62–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 67–74 65–75 64–77 62–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 50–58 49–60 48–61 46–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 51–58 50–59 49–60 48–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 39 0% 34–43 33–44 32–45 31–47

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.7%  
100 0.4% 99.5%  
101 0.6% 99.1%  
102 1.2% 98%  
103 4% 97%  
104 4% 93%  
105 9% 89%  
106 10% 80%  
107 5% 70% Last Result
108 9% 66%  
109 9% 57%  
110 10% 48% Median
111 14% 38%  
112 10% 25%  
113 5% 14%  
114 2% 9%  
115 6% 7%  
116 0.5% 1.2%  
117 0.4% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.9% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 98.8%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 1.2% 97% Last Result
89 4% 96%  
90 5% 92%  
91 9% 88%  
92 9% 79%  
93 13% 70%  
94 18% 57% Median
95 8% 39%  
96 6% 31%  
97 7% 25%  
98 12% 18%  
99 2% 6%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.0%  
103 0.4% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
82 0.9% 99.6%  
83 0.7% 98.7%  
84 3% 98%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 7% 92%  
87 10% 85%  
88 10% 74% Median
89 10% 64%  
90 8% 55%  
91 9% 47%  
92 19% 38%  
93 4% 19%  
94 3% 15%  
95 3% 12%  
96 6% 9%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 99.5%  
80 1.1% 99.0% Last Result
81 0.9% 98%  
82 5% 97%  
83 4% 92%  
84 6% 89%  
85 15% 83% Majority
86 6% 68% Median
87 14% 61%  
88 11% 48%  
89 9% 37%  
90 16% 28%  
91 3% 12%  
92 1.4% 8%  
93 2% 7%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 2% 99.0% Last Result
81 3% 97%  
82 4% 95%  
83 4% 91%  
84 10% 87%  
85 15% 77% Majority
86 15% 62% Median
87 5% 46%  
88 4% 41%  
89 7% 38%  
90 12% 31%  
91 9% 19%  
92 2% 10%  
93 4% 9%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.5% 2%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.6%  
77 1.3% 99.3%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96% Last Result
80 5% 94%  
81 6% 88%  
82 11% 83%  
83 13% 72%  
84 15% 59% Median
85 12% 44% Majority
86 3% 32%  
87 7% 29%  
88 11% 22%  
89 7% 11%  
90 0.7% 5%  
91 1.2% 4%  
92 0.8% 3%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.7%  
74 1.5% 99.3%  
75 3% 98%  
76 4% 95%  
77 2% 91%  
78 9% 90%  
79 12% 81%  
80 7% 69%  
81 4% 62%  
82 5% 59% Median
83 15% 54%  
84 15% 38%  
85 10% 23% Majority
86 4% 13%  
87 4% 9%  
88 3% 5%  
89 2% 3% Last Result
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 1.0% 99.5%  
72 0.5% 98%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 4% 90%  
77 8% 87% Last Result
78 9% 79%  
79 9% 69%  
80 9% 60% Median
81 20% 52%  
82 9% 32%  
83 5% 23%  
84 11% 18%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 0.8% 4%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 1.4%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.6% 99.1%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 6% 97%  
74 3% 91%  
75 3% 88%  
76 4% 85%  
77 19% 81%  
78 9% 62%  
79 8% 53%  
80 10% 45% Median
81 10% 36%  
82 10% 26%  
83 7% 15%  
84 3% 8%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.9% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 1.3% 99.3%  
70 1.3% 98%  
71 1.2% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 6% 93%  
74 8% 86%  
75 5% 78%  
76 14% 73% Last Result
77 11% 59%  
78 8% 48% Median
79 19% 40%  
80 8% 21%  
81 5% 13%  
82 2% 8%  
83 5% 7%  
84 0.8% 1.5%  
85 0.2% 0.7% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.5% 99.6%  
65 2% 99.1%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 15% 90%  
70 9% 76%  
71 6% 66%  
72 4% 61% Median
73 22% 56%  
74 10% 35%  
75 10% 25%  
76 6% 15%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 1.1% 2% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 2% 98.7%  
65 3% 97%  
66 4% 94%  
67 5% 90%  
68 10% 85% Last Result
69 8% 74%  
70 17% 66% Median
71 17% 49%  
72 10% 33%  
73 5% 23%  
74 4% 18%  
75 9% 14%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.2% 3%  
78 1.0% 1.5%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 1.5% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 2% 93%  
67 15% 91%  
68 7% 75%  
69 9% 69%  
70 5% 60% Median
71 15% 55%  
72 14% 40% Last Result
73 12% 26%  
74 5% 14%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 3%  
78 1.0% 1.4%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.2%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 3% 97%  
50 5% 94%  
51 7% 89%  
52 6% 81%  
53 7% 76%  
54 21% 68%  
55 14% 48%  
56 6% 34% Median
57 7% 28%  
58 13% 21%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 2% 4% Last Result
62 0.6% 1.3%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 1.3% 99.5%  
49 0.8% 98%  
50 3% 97%  
51 5% 94%  
52 14% 89%  
53 10% 74%  
54 20% 65% Median
55 13% 45%  
56 9% 31%  
57 9% 23%  
58 8% 14%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.4% 99.5%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 3% 97%  
34 6% 95%  
35 4% 89% Last Result
36 12% 85%  
37 6% 72%  
38 12% 67%  
39 13% 55%  
40 18% 41% Median
41 6% 23%  
42 7% 17%  
43 4% 10%  
44 4% 6%  
45 1.4% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.3%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations