Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 3–9 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.6% 22.8–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 21.9–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.3% 18.7–22.1% 18.3–22.6% 17.9–23.0% 17.2–23.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.8% 16.2–19.4% 15.8–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.8–21.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.1% 8.6–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 43 39–46 39–48 38–49 36–52
Arbeiderpartiet 49 38 33–41 33–41 31–43 29–43
Senterpartiet 19 33 29–36 28–36 27–37 26–39
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 16–22 16–23 15–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–9 2–9 1–9 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.5% 99.5%  
37 0.5% 99.0%  
38 2% 98%  
39 7% 97%  
40 8% 90%  
41 15% 82%  
42 15% 68%  
43 15% 53% Median
44 9% 38%  
45 8% 28% Last Result
46 11% 21%  
47 4% 10%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.7% 1.5%  
51 0.2% 0.8%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.8%  
32 2% 97%  
33 10% 95%  
34 7% 85%  
35 9% 78%  
36 7% 69%  
37 7% 62%  
38 10% 55% Median
39 11% 46%  
40 19% 34%  
41 11% 16%  
42 1.3% 4%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 3% 97%  
29 8% 95%  
30 6% 86%  
31 12% 80%  
32 17% 68%  
33 17% 51% Median
34 8% 34%  
35 10% 26%  
36 13% 17%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 3% 98.6%  
16 6% 96%  
17 17% 90%  
18 20% 72%  
19 14% 52% Median
20 17% 38%  
21 10% 21%  
22 6% 11%  
23 3% 5%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.9%  
11 6% 98.5% Last Result
12 12% 93%  
13 16% 81%  
14 27% 65% Median
15 23% 39%  
16 8% 15%  
17 5% 7%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.7%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 7% 100%  
3 0.4% 93%  
4 0.6% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0.1% 92%  
7 5% 92%  
8 43% 87% Median
9 17% 44%  
10 20% 27%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100% Last Result
2 33% 99.2%  
3 0% 66%  
4 0% 66%  
5 0% 66%  
6 3% 66%  
7 22% 63% Median
8 27% 41%  
9 10% 13%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 16% 95%  
3 12% 80%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 2% 68%  
7 29% 66% Median
8 20% 37% Last Result
9 14% 17%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 78% 98.8% Median
3 2% 21%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 2% 18%  
7 10% 16%  
8 6% 6% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 103 100% 98–109 97–110 96–111 95–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 99.9% 93–104 91–105 90–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 99.9% 92–103 91–105 90–105 86–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 97% 88–97 86–99 84–99 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 89% 84–95 83–96 82–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 53% 80–90 77–90 75–91 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 52% 79–89 78–89 76–90 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 11% 74–85 73–86 72–87 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.8% 71–81 69–82 68–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0.1% 66–77 64–78 64–79 62–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 66–74 64–76 63–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 60–70 58–72 57–73 55–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 57–67 56–68 55–69 52–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 47–57 46–59 44–59 44–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 47–55 45–56 45–57 43–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 42 0% 37–46 35–47 34–48 32–51

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 1.2% 99.5%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 5% 97%  
98 4% 93%  
99 9% 89%  
100 5% 80%  
101 8% 76%  
102 10% 67%  
103 12% 57%  
104 7% 46% Median
105 6% 39%  
106 10% 33%  
107 7% 23% Last Result
108 4% 16%  
109 4% 11%  
110 3% 7%  
111 2% 4%  
112 1.0% 2%  
113 0.5% 1.2%  
114 0.2% 0.7%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
89 0.6% 98%  
90 2% 98%  
91 1.3% 96%  
92 2% 95%  
93 3% 92%  
94 4% 89%  
95 8% 85%  
96 10% 76%  
97 5% 66%  
98 7% 61%  
99 12% 54%  
100 13% 42% Median
101 12% 29%  
102 2% 17%  
103 4% 16%  
104 4% 12%  
105 6% 8%  
106 0.8% 2%  
107 0.6% 0.9%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.5%  
88 0.4% 99.3%  
89 0.4% 98.9%  
90 1.3% 98.5%  
91 3% 97%  
92 5% 95%  
93 3% 89%  
94 5% 86%  
95 9% 81%  
96 6% 72%  
97 6% 66%  
98 7% 60%  
99 12% 53%  
100 6% 41% Median
101 19% 35%  
102 3% 16%  
103 4% 13%  
104 4% 9%  
105 3% 5%  
106 2% 2%  
107 0.5% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.1% 99.7%  
83 1.0% 99.5%  
84 1.2% 98%  
85 1.4% 97% Majority
86 3% 96%  
87 3% 93%  
88 7% 90%  
89 8% 83%  
90 7% 75%  
91 6% 67%  
92 7% 61%  
93 18% 54% Median
94 8% 36%  
95 5% 28%  
96 5% 23%  
97 11% 18%  
98 3% 8%  
99 4% 5%  
100 0.5% 1.5%  
101 0.6% 0.9%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.6%  
80 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
81 0.8% 99.0%  
82 3% 98%  
83 3% 95%  
84 3% 93%  
85 3% 89% Majority
86 8% 86%  
87 6% 78%  
88 9% 72%  
89 7% 63%  
90 6% 56%  
91 10% 50%  
92 7% 40% Median
93 17% 33%  
94 5% 16%  
95 4% 11%  
96 2% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 1.1% 99.6%  
74 0.5% 98.5%  
75 1.0% 98%  
76 0.7% 97%  
77 2% 96% Last Result
78 2% 94%  
79 2% 92%  
80 6% 90%  
81 9% 84%  
82 9% 75%  
83 5% 66%  
84 8% 60%  
85 11% 53% Majority
86 14% 42% Median
87 6% 28%  
88 3% 22%  
89 8% 19%  
90 7% 11%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.4% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 1.3% 99.7%  
76 0.9% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 93% Last Result
80 12% 89%  
81 4% 78%  
82 7% 73%  
83 5% 66%  
84 10% 62%  
85 15% 52% Median, Majority
86 8% 36%  
87 11% 28%  
88 4% 17%  
89 8% 13%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.2%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.3% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 5% 89%  
76 17% 84%  
77 7% 67%  
78 10% 60%  
79 6% 50% Median
80 7% 44%  
81 9% 37%  
82 6% 28%  
83 8% 22%  
84 3% 14%  
85 3% 11% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 3% 5%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 1.1% 99.0%  
68 1.3% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 5% 92%  
72 5% 88%  
73 10% 83%  
74 10% 73%  
75 11% 63%  
76 5% 53% Last Result
77 8% 47%  
78 9% 39% Median
79 10% 30%  
80 5% 20%  
81 7% 15%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.8% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 3% 98%  
65 4% 95%  
66 4% 91%  
67 3% 87%  
68 19% 84%  
69 6% 65%  
70 12% 59%  
71 7% 47% Median
72 6% 40%  
73 6% 34%  
74 9% 28%  
75 5% 19%  
76 3% 14%  
77 5% 11%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.5%  
81 0.4% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.4%  
62 0.8% 99.0%  
63 3% 98%  
64 2% 95%  
65 4% 94%  
66 11% 90%  
67 5% 79%  
68 7% 74% Last Result
69 6% 67%  
70 9% 61%  
71 16% 52% Median
72 11% 36%  
73 3% 24%  
74 13% 21%  
75 2% 7%  
76 3% 5%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 1.4% 98.9%  
58 3% 97%  
59 3% 95%  
60 2% 91%  
61 12% 89%  
62 13% 77%  
63 4% 64%  
64 7% 60% Median
65 8% 53%  
66 12% 45%  
67 9% 33%  
68 9% 25%  
69 4% 16%  
70 3% 13%  
71 4% 9%  
72 1.3% 5%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 0.8% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 6% 93%  
58 3% 87%  
59 13% 84%  
60 14% 70%  
61 6% 56%  
62 6% 50% Median
63 8% 44%  
64 12% 37%  
65 9% 25%  
66 6% 16%  
67 4% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.5%  
45 1.3% 97%  
46 1.4% 96%  
47 5% 95%  
48 5% 90%  
49 5% 84%  
50 16% 79%  
51 12% 63%  
52 12% 51% Median
53 6% 40%  
54 11% 34%  
55 8% 23%  
56 3% 15%  
57 4% 12%  
58 2% 7%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.3% 1.1% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.8%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.7%  
44 1.4% 99.2%  
45 3% 98%  
46 2% 95%  
47 9% 92%  
48 7% 83%  
49 8% 77%  
50 7% 68%  
51 4% 62%  
52 8% 57% Median
53 15% 50%  
54 16% 34%  
55 11% 19%  
56 4% 8%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.3%  
34 2% 98%  
35 2% 97% Last Result
36 4% 95%  
37 3% 91%  
38 7% 88%  
39 7% 81%  
40 15% 74%  
41 5% 59%  
42 13% 54% Median
43 11% 41%  
44 9% 30%  
45 7% 21%  
46 7% 14%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.9% 2%  
50 0.4% 1.1%  
51 0.3% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations