Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 16–18 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.5% 19.6–23.6% 19.1–24.2% 18.6–24.7% 17.7–25.7%
Høyre 25.0% 20.4% 18.5–22.4% 18.0–23.0% 17.6–23.5% 16.7–24.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.7% 16.9–20.7% 16.4–21.2% 15.9–21.7% 15.1–22.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.0% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.2% 9.8–14.6% 9.1–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.3–8.8% 6.0–9.2% 5.7–9.6% 5.2–10.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.2% 3.4–7.8%
Venstre 4.4% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.4–6.1% 3.2–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 36–44 35–44 34–45 32–47
Høyre 45 36 33–41 32–42 31–43 29–44
Senterpartiet 19 34 31–39 30–40 29–41 27–44
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–23 16–25 16–26 14–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 9–16 9–17 8–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–12 7–12 3–13 2–14
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10
Rødt 1 2 1–6 1–7 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.8%  
32 0.5% 99.6%  
33 1.0% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 4% 96%  
36 6% 92%  
37 9% 86%  
38 8% 77%  
39 9% 69%  
40 13% 59% Median
41 11% 46%  
42 5% 35%  
43 13% 29%  
44 13% 17%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.4% 0.9%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 0.7% 99.2%  
31 2% 98.5%  
32 4% 97%  
33 11% 93%  
34 13% 83%  
35 11% 70%  
36 10% 59% Median
37 13% 49%  
38 5% 37%  
39 12% 32%  
40 9% 19%  
41 4% 11%  
42 3% 6%  
43 1.5% 3%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.8%  
28 0.9% 99.1%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 96%  
31 5% 93%  
32 10% 88%  
33 14% 79%  
34 17% 64% Median
35 7% 47%  
36 12% 40%  
37 11% 28%  
38 6% 18%  
39 4% 11%  
40 4% 7%  
41 1.1% 3%  
42 0.5% 2%  
43 0.5% 1.0%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 1.3% 99.2%  
16 4% 98%  
17 9% 94%  
18 12% 86%  
19 21% 74%  
20 16% 53% Median
21 13% 37%  
22 9% 25%  
23 7% 16%  
24 3% 9%  
25 2% 6%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.2% 2% Last Result
28 0.4% 0.9%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.0% 99.9%  
9 5% 98.9%  
10 11% 94%  
11 12% 83% Last Result
12 25% 72% Median
13 18% 47%  
14 14% 29%  
15 7% 14%  
16 5% 8%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.4% 100%  
3 2% 98.6%  
4 0.5% 97%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0.9% 96%  
7 8% 95%  
8 18% 87%  
9 26% 70% Median
10 22% 44%  
11 10% 22%  
12 9% 12%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.8%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 14% 100%  
3 6% 86%  
4 1.4% 80%  
5 0% 79%  
6 2% 79%  
7 20% 77%  
8 27% 58% Last Result, Median
9 17% 31%  
10 9% 14%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.6% 0.8%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 23% 98%  
2 14% 75%  
3 29% 61% Median
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 5% 31%  
7 13% 26%  
8 10% 13% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 30% 100% Last Result
2 57% 70% Median
3 0.2% 12%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0.1% 12%  
6 2% 12%  
7 7% 10%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 102 100% 96–108 95–110 94–111 91–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 100 100% 94–106 92–107 91–109 89–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 99.9% 93–104 91–105 90–107 87–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 99.8% 91–102 89–103 87–104 85–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 88% 84–95 83–96 81–97 79–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 88 76% 82–93 80–94 79–96 76–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 79% 82–92 81–93 79–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 9% 73–84 71–85 70–87 68–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 76 5% 71–83 69–85 68–86 66–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.2% 70–79 68–81 67–81 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 67 0% 62–73 60–75 59–76 57–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 58–70 57–72 55–72 53–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 56 0% 51–62 50–64 50–65 47–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 48–57 47–58 46–59 43–61
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 48 0% 42–52 42–53 40–55 37–57
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 46 0% 40–51 38–53 37–54 35–57

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 0.5% 99.2%  
93 0.7% 98.7%  
94 0.9% 98%  
95 4% 97%  
96 7% 93%  
97 4% 87%  
98 4% 83%  
99 3% 80%  
100 7% 76%  
101 12% 70% Median
102 9% 58%  
103 13% 49%  
104 11% 37%  
105 5% 26%  
106 5% 21%  
107 3% 16% Last Result
108 4% 13%  
109 3% 9%  
110 3% 6%  
111 1.4% 3%  
112 0.9% 2%  
113 0.4% 0.8%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
89 0.4% 99.5%  
90 0.7% 99.1%  
91 3% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 2% 94%  
94 4% 93%  
95 4% 88%  
96 3% 84%  
97 9% 81%  
98 8% 72% Median
99 6% 64%  
100 10% 58%  
101 7% 49%  
102 8% 42%  
103 6% 34%  
104 8% 28%  
105 9% 19%  
106 3% 10%  
107 2% 7%  
108 1.5% 5%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.6% 0.9%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.8% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 98.9%  
89 0.8% 98%  
90 2% 98%  
91 1.5% 96%  
92 2% 94%  
93 4% 93%  
94 3% 88%  
95 6% 86%  
96 6% 80%  
97 9% 74% Median
98 11% 65%  
99 9% 54%  
100 7% 45%  
101 11% 38%  
102 7% 28%  
103 6% 21%  
104 7% 14%  
105 3% 7%  
106 1.4% 4%  
107 0.9% 3%  
108 0.6% 2%  
109 0.6% 1.4%  
110 0.3% 0.7%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.2% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.9% 99.8% Majority
86 0.5% 98.9%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 1.0% 97%  
89 3% 96%  
90 2% 94%  
91 5% 92%  
92 3% 87%  
93 5% 84%  
94 6% 79%  
95 10% 73% Median
96 13% 63%  
97 9% 50%  
98 8% 41%  
99 10% 33%  
100 6% 23%  
101 4% 17%  
102 6% 13%  
103 4% 7%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.1%  
107 0.2% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.2%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.9% 99.7%  
80 0.5% 98.9% Last Result
81 1.4% 98%  
82 1.0% 97%  
83 4% 96%  
84 3% 91%  
85 3% 88% Majority
86 7% 85%  
87 6% 79%  
88 9% 72% Median
89 13% 64%  
90 7% 51%  
91 12% 44%  
92 6% 32%  
93 7% 25%  
94 8% 19%  
95 5% 11%  
96 2% 6%  
97 1.5% 4%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.8% 1.5%  
100 0.4% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.2% Last Result
78 0.6% 98.7%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 5% 95%  
82 4% 90%  
83 5% 86%  
84 5% 81%  
85 8% 76% Majority
86 8% 68% Median
87 5% 60%  
88 6% 55%  
89 7% 49%  
90 12% 42%  
91 9% 30%  
92 5% 20%  
93 7% 15%  
94 3% 8%  
95 1.2% 5%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.8% 99.7%  
78 0.3% 98.8%  
79 2% 98% Last Result
80 1.3% 97%  
81 3% 96%  
82 4% 92%  
83 3% 88%  
84 6% 85%  
85 6% 79% Majority
86 10% 73% Median
87 16% 62%  
88 8% 46%  
89 11% 38%  
90 8% 27%  
91 4% 20%  
92 7% 15%  
93 5% 9%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.2%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 98.9%  
70 1.3% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 3% 94%  
73 5% 91%  
74 7% 86%  
75 5% 78%  
76 7% 74% Last Result
77 8% 67% Median
78 6% 59%  
79 5% 52%  
80 12% 48%  
81 10% 36%  
82 7% 25%  
83 4% 18%  
84 5% 14%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 0.9% 99.1%  
68 1.1% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 4% 91%  
72 6% 87%  
73 6% 81%  
74 8% 75%  
75 9% 67%  
76 9% 58% Median
77 6% 49%  
78 8% 43%  
79 5% 35%  
80 10% 30%  
81 5% 20%  
82 3% 15%  
83 4% 12%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.4%  
88 0.6% 0.9%  
89 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 0.8% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 97% Last Result
69 3% 94%  
70 4% 91%  
71 4% 87%  
72 6% 83%  
73 12% 77%  
74 10% 64% Median
75 10% 54%  
76 6% 44%  
77 13% 38%  
78 11% 25%  
79 5% 14%  
80 3% 9%  
81 4% 6%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.1%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 6% 91%  
63 3% 85%  
64 6% 82%  
65 10% 75%  
66 7% 65%  
67 9% 58% Median
68 10% 49%  
69 6% 39%  
70 7% 33%  
71 8% 27%  
72 7% 19%  
73 3% 12%  
74 2% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.4% 2%  
78 0.8% 1.4%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.5%  
54 0.9% 99.3%  
55 1.3% 98%  
56 1.2% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 6% 94%  
59 8% 88%  
60 5% 80%  
61 6% 75%  
62 10% 69%  
63 11% 59%  
64 9% 48% Median
65 6% 39%  
66 5% 33%  
67 7% 28%  
68 3% 21%  
69 3% 18%  
70 8% 15%  
71 2% 7%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.5% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 99.4%  
49 1.2% 98.8%  
50 6% 98%  
51 4% 92%  
52 4% 87%  
53 8% 84%  
54 8% 75%  
55 7% 67%  
56 12% 60% Median
57 9% 48%  
58 6% 40%  
59 8% 34%  
60 7% 26%  
61 5% 19%  
62 6% 14%  
63 3% 8%  
64 1.4% 5%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.3%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 0.6% 99.5%  
45 1.1% 98.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 7% 93%  
49 9% 86%  
50 5% 77%  
51 9% 72%  
52 8% 63% Median
53 9% 55%  
54 13% 46%  
55 13% 32%  
56 9% 19%  
57 5% 11%  
58 3% 6%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 1.1% 2% Last Result
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.5%  
38 0.6% 99.2%  
39 0.9% 98.6%  
40 1.1% 98%  
41 2% 97%  
42 6% 95%  
43 5% 89%  
44 5% 85%  
45 12% 79%  
46 7% 67%  
47 9% 60% Median
48 11% 51%  
49 9% 40%  
50 10% 31%  
51 5% 21%  
52 7% 16%  
53 4% 8%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.1%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
36 0.9% 99.2%  
37 2% 98%  
38 2% 96%  
39 2% 94%  
40 2% 92%  
41 6% 90%  
42 9% 84%  
43 7% 75%  
44 9% 68%  
45 8% 59% Median
46 9% 51%  
47 9% 41%  
48 7% 32%  
49 5% 25%  
50 8% 20%  
51 5% 13%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.3% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations