Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 25–30 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 22.9% 21.3–24.7% 20.8–25.2% 20.4–25.6% 19.6–26.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 40 37–45 36–45 35–46 34–48
Senterpartiet 19 38 34–41 33–43 33–44 31–45
Arbeiderpartiet 49 38 33–41 32–41 32–42 29–44
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 16–22 16–23 15–23 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.4% 100%  
34 2% 99.6%  
35 2% 98%  
36 5% 96%  
37 7% 91%  
38 12% 84%  
39 10% 72%  
40 18% 62% Median
41 9% 44%  
42 5% 35%  
43 13% 30%  
44 6% 17%  
45 7% 11% Last Result
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.6% 1.0%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.7% 99.3%  
33 8% 98.6%  
34 6% 90%  
35 13% 84%  
36 12% 71%  
37 8% 59%  
38 14% 51% Median
39 9% 37%  
40 11% 28%  
41 9% 17%  
42 1.1% 8%  
43 3% 7%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.1% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.4%  
31 1.1% 98.7%  
32 5% 98%  
33 9% 92%  
34 4% 84%  
35 5% 80%  
36 7% 75%  
37 16% 67%  
38 15% 52% Median
39 15% 37%  
40 12% 22%  
41 7% 10%  
42 0.9% 3%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.8%  
15 2% 98.9%  
16 8% 97%  
17 10% 89%  
18 9% 79%  
19 19% 71%  
20 36% 52% Median
21 5% 15%  
22 5% 11%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.0% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 7% 99.2% Last Result
12 9% 92%  
13 16% 83%  
14 28% 67% Median
15 24% 40%  
16 7% 16%  
17 6% 9%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100% Last Result
2 16% 99.6%  
3 1.1% 84%  
4 0.6% 83%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 18% 82%  
8 38% 63% Median
9 20% 26%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.1% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 28% 100%  
3 12% 72%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0.7% 60%  
7 29% 60% Median
8 20% 31% Last Result
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 21% 99.9%  
2 26% 79%  
3 17% 53% Median
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 1.1% 36%  
7 17% 35%  
8 14% 18% Last Result
9 4% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 56% 93% Median
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0.8% 36%  
7 24% 35%  
8 8% 11%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 107 100% 101–112 100–113 98–115 97–118
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 100 100% 94–105 93–107 91–108 90–110
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 100 100% 95–105 93–106 92–107 89–110
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.5% 91–102 90–102 88–103 84–105
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98.7% 87–99 85–99 85–101 83–103
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 89% 84–94 83–94 82–95 79–98
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 61% 81–91 79–92 78–94 75–96
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 7% 73–84 73–85 72–87 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 76 1.3% 70–82 70–84 68–84 66–86
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet 68 75 0.1% 70–79 69–79 69–80 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 69 0% 64–75 62–76 61–78 59–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 60–70 58–72 56–72 55–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 54–65 53–66 52–67 51–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 50 0% 45–56 44–57 42–58 41–59
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 47–55 46–56 45–57 42–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 47 0% 41–54 40–54 39–56 38–58

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 2% 99.3%  
99 1.4% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 8% 94%  
102 7% 85%  
103 3% 78%  
104 5% 76%  
105 5% 71%  
106 13% 65%  
107 12% 53% Last Result
108 9% 41% Median
109 6% 31%  
110 2% 26%  
111 6% 24%  
112 9% 18%  
113 4% 9%  
114 2% 5%  
115 0.6% 3%  
116 1.4% 2%  
117 0.2% 0.7%  
118 0.3% 0.5%  
119 0.2% 0.2%  
120 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 1.0% 99.5%  
91 1.2% 98.5%  
92 1.3% 97%  
93 5% 96%  
94 1.2% 91%  
95 6% 89%  
96 2% 84%  
97 11% 82%  
98 10% 71%  
99 5% 61%  
100 8% 56% Median
101 12% 47%  
102 10% 35%  
103 7% 26%  
104 7% 19%  
105 5% 12%  
106 1.4% 7%  
107 3% 6%  
108 0.6% 3%  
109 0.3% 2%  
110 2% 2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 0.6% 99.4%  
91 0.5% 98.8%  
92 1.1% 98%  
93 3% 97%  
94 1.3% 94%  
95 7% 93%  
96 4% 86%  
97 15% 82%  
98 5% 67%  
99 9% 62%  
100 10% 53%  
101 6% 43% Median
102 8% 38%  
103 9% 29%  
104 5% 20%  
105 8% 15%  
106 4% 7%  
107 1.5% 3%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.5% 1.0%  
110 0.4% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0% 99.6%  
84 0.1% 99.6%  
85 0.2% 99.5% Majority
86 0.4% 99.3%  
87 0.4% 98.9%  
88 1.1% 98.5%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 9% 94%  
92 3% 85%  
93 5% 82%  
94 14% 78%  
95 15% 64%  
96 8% 49%  
97 7% 41%  
98 9% 34% Median
99 5% 25%  
100 6% 21%  
101 3% 14%  
102 7% 12%  
103 4% 5%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.6% 99.8%  
84 0.5% 99.2%  
85 5% 98.7% Majority
86 0.8% 94%  
87 3% 93%  
88 3% 90%  
89 9% 86%  
90 10% 78%  
91 11% 68%  
92 3% 57% Median
93 11% 54%  
94 6% 42%  
95 9% 36%  
96 10% 27%  
97 3% 17%  
98 3% 14%  
99 6% 11%  
100 2% 5%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.3% 1.0%  
103 0.6% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
80 0.6% 99.5%  
81 0.7% 98.9%  
82 0.7% 98%  
83 5% 97%  
84 4% 92%  
85 3% 89% Majority
86 11% 86%  
87 9% 75%  
88 16% 66%  
89 11% 50%  
90 5% 39% Median
91 7% 34%  
92 8% 26%  
93 6% 18%  
94 9% 12%  
95 2% 3%  
96 1.1% 2%  
97 0.2% 0.8%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 1.1% 99.7%  
76 0.1% 98.6%  
77 0.7% 98% Last Result
78 1.1% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 1.3% 93%  
81 9% 92%  
82 7% 83%  
83 5% 76%  
84 10% 71%  
85 9% 61% Majority
86 9% 52%  
87 8% 43% Median
88 7% 35%  
89 7% 28%  
90 7% 21%  
91 5% 14%  
92 5% 10%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.5% 3%  
95 0.7% 1.3%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 99.1%  
72 3% 98%  
73 10% 95%  
74 3% 85%  
75 4% 83%  
76 7% 79% Last Result
77 15% 72%  
78 8% 57%  
79 5% 49% Median
80 9% 45%  
81 7% 35%  
82 12% 28%  
83 4% 17%  
84 6% 13%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 1.1% 5%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.6% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.3%  
68 2% 99.0%  
69 2% 97%  
70 6% 95%  
71 3% 89%  
72 3% 86%  
73 10% 83%  
74 9% 73%  
75 6% 64%  
76 11% 58%  
77 3% 46%  
78 11% 43% Median
79 10% 32%  
80 9% 22%  
81 3% 14%  
82 3% 10%  
83 0.8% 7%  
84 5% 6%  
85 0.5% 1.3% Majority
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.8% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 98.9%  
68 0.8% 98% Last Result
69 6% 98%  
70 3% 92%  
71 6% 89%  
72 9% 83%  
73 4% 74%  
74 12% 69%  
75 16% 57%  
76 8% 41% Median
77 12% 33%  
78 6% 21%  
79 10% 15%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.4% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 98%  
61 0.6% 98%  
62 3% 97%  
63 1.4% 94%  
64 5% 93%  
65 7% 88%  
66 7% 81%  
67 10% 74%  
68 12% 65%  
69 8% 53%  
70 5% 44% Median
71 10% 39%  
72 11% 29%  
73 2% 18%  
74 6% 16%  
75 1.2% 11%  
76 5% 9%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.2% 3%  
79 1.0% 1.5%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 1.0% 97%  
58 1.2% 96%  
59 3% 95%  
60 3% 92%  
61 5% 89%  
62 8% 84%  
63 6% 76%  
64 9% 71%  
65 16% 61%  
66 5% 45%  
67 13% 40% Median
68 8% 27%  
69 5% 19%  
70 7% 14%  
71 2% 7%  
72 3% 5%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.8%  
77 0.4% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 2% 99.0%  
53 3% 97%  
54 4% 94%  
55 2% 90%  
56 4% 87%  
57 11% 83%  
58 12% 72%  
59 6% 60%  
60 16% 54% Median
61 7% 38%  
62 9% 32%  
63 8% 23%  
64 3% 15%  
65 6% 12%  
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 1.2%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 4% 95%  
45 7% 92%  
46 4% 85%  
47 5% 81%  
48 17% 76%  
49 7% 59%  
50 7% 52% Median
51 9% 45%  
52 10% 36%  
53 7% 26%  
54 6% 19%  
55 1.5% 14%  
56 7% 12%  
57 0.9% 5%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.9% 1.4%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.4%  
44 0.5% 98.9%  
45 1.1% 98%  
46 5% 97%  
47 10% 93%  
48 8% 83%  
49 4% 75%  
50 5% 72%  
51 8% 66%  
52 17% 59% Median
53 20% 42%  
54 9% 21%  
55 5% 13%  
56 3% 7%  
57 3% 5%  
58 0.8% 1.4%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 5% 97%  
41 8% 92%  
42 3% 83%  
43 4% 80%  
44 8% 77%  
45 4% 69%  
46 9% 65%  
47 9% 56%  
48 9% 47% Median
49 9% 38%  
50 9% 29%  
51 2% 20%  
52 4% 17%  
53 3% 14%  
54 6% 11%  
55 0.9% 5%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations