Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 28 December 2020–2 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 25.0% | 22.6% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.4–24.9% | 20.0–25.3% | 19.3–26.2% |
| Senterpartiet | 10.3% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.1% | 19.2–23.6% | 18.8–24.0% | 18.1–24.9% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 27.4% | 20.1% | 18.5–21.8% | 18.0–22.3% | 17.6–22.7% | 16.9–23.6% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 15.2% | 11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.2% | 9.5–13.5% | 8.9–14.2% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.6% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.8–11.6% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Rødt | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.4–5.6% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.4–5.6% |
| Venstre | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.4–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 45 | 41 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 | 34–49 |
| Senterpartiet | 19 | 39 | 36–44 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 32–46 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 49 | 38 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 32–42 | 30–43 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 27 | 21 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 16–26 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 11 | 16 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 1 | 3 | 2–9 | 2–9 | 1–10 | 1–10 |
| Rødt | 1 | 2 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 2–9 | 1–10 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 8 | 3 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 1–9 | 1–10 |
| Venstre | 8 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–7 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 3% | 97% | |
| 37 | 5% | 94% | |
| 38 | 8% | 88% | |
| 39 | 11% | 81% | |
| 40 | 10% | 70% | |
| 41 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 42 | 19% | 39% | |
| 43 | 5% | 20% | |
| 44 | 6% | 15% | |
| 45 | 4% | 9% | Last Result |
| 46 | 3% | 5% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98% | |
| 35 | 4% | 96% | |
| 36 | 7% | 93% | |
| 37 | 8% | 86% | |
| 38 | 21% | 78% | |
| 39 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 44% | |
| 41 | 7% | 33% | |
| 42 | 8% | 26% | |
| 43 | 8% | 18% | |
| 44 | 8% | 11% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 5% | 98% | |
| 33 | 10% | 93% | |
| 34 | 7% | 83% | |
| 35 | 7% | 76% | |
| 36 | 7% | 70% | |
| 37 | 10% | 62% | |
| 38 | 28% | 52% | Median |
| 39 | 9% | 25% | |
| 40 | 5% | 16% | |
| 41 | 6% | 11% | |
| 42 | 4% | 5% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 5% | 97% | |
| 18 | 9% | 92% | |
| 19 | 15% | 83% | |
| 20 | 11% | 67% | |
| 21 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 22 | 13% | 36% | |
| 23 | 14% | 22% | |
| 24 | 5% | 9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 8% | 93% | |
| 15 | 15% | 85% | |
| 16 | 34% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 13% | 36% | |
| 18 | 8% | 23% | |
| 19 | 12% | 15% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 36% | 97% | |
| 3 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 5 | 0% | 48% | |
| 6 | 0% | 48% | |
| 7 | 14% | 48% | |
| 8 | 24% | 35% | |
| 9 | 7% | 10% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 65% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 33% | |
| 4 | 0% | 33% | |
| 5 | 0% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0% | 33% | |
| 7 | 10% | 33% | |
| 8 | 17% | 23% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 20% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 26% | 80% | |
| 3 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 39% | |
| 5 | 0% | 39% | |
| 6 | 0% | 39% | |
| 7 | 4% | 39% | |
| 8 | 29% | 34% | Last Result |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 23% | 95% | |
| 2 | 71% | 72% | Median |
| 3 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 107 | 107 | 100% | 101–112 | 99–114 | 99–114 | 96–117 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt | 81 | 102 | 100% | 96–107 | 96–108 | 94–109 | 92–111 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 88 | 102 | 100% | 97–107 | 96–108 | 94–108 | 92–111 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 80 | 98 | 100% | 93–102 | 91–104 | 89–105 | 88–107 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt | 80 | 96 | 99.9% | 92–102 | 91–103 | 89–104 | 87–105 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 79 | 93 | 98.9% | 88–97 | 87–98 | 86–100 | 83–101 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 77 | 86 | 65% | 80–90 | 79–92 | 78–93 | 75–95 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 76 | 80 | 15% | 76–85 | 74–87 | 72–88 | 70–90 |
| Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet | 68 | 77 | 0.4% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–82 | 68–84 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 89 | 73 | 0.1% | 67–77 | 66–78 | 65–80 | 64–82 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 88 | 67 | 0% | 62–73 | 61–73 | 60–75 | 58–77 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 80 | 64 | 0% | 59–67 | 57–69 | 56–71 | 54–73 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 72 | 62 | 0% | 57–66 | 55–68 | 54–69 | 53–71 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 60 | 54 | 0% | 48–57 | 47–58 | 46–60 | 45–61 |
| Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 61 | 46 | 0% | 42–52 | 41–53 | 40–54 | 39–55 |
| Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 35 | 45 | 0% | 40–50 | 39–53 | 38–54 | 37–55 |
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 99 | 4% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 94% | |
| 101 | 4% | 91% | |
| 102 | 3% | 87% | |
| 103 | 6% | 84% | |
| 104 | 6% | 78% | |
| 105 | 9% | 73% | |
| 106 | 8% | 64% | Median |
| 107 | 10% | 56% | Last Result |
| 108 | 11% | 46% | |
| 109 | 4% | 35% | |
| 110 | 7% | 31% | |
| 111 | 11% | 23% | |
| 112 | 3% | 13% | |
| 113 | 4% | 10% | |
| 114 | 4% | 6% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 96 | 11% | 96% | |
| 97 | 7% | 85% | |
| 98 | 3% | 78% | Median |
| 99 | 6% | 75% | |
| 100 | 6% | 69% | |
| 101 | 13% | 63% | |
| 102 | 8% | 51% | |
| 103 | 9% | 43% | |
| 104 | 10% | 33% | |
| 105 | 5% | 23% | |
| 106 | 8% | 19% | |
| 107 | 4% | 11% | |
| 108 | 4% | 7% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 96 | 4% | 96% | |
| 97 | 6% | 92% | |
| 98 | 5% | 86% | |
| 99 | 4% | 82% | Median |
| 100 | 7% | 78% | |
| 101 | 12% | 70% | |
| 102 | 19% | 59% | |
| 103 | 8% | 40% | |
| 104 | 7% | 32% | |
| 105 | 10% | 25% | |
| 106 | 4% | 15% | |
| 107 | 4% | 10% | |
| 108 | 4% | 6% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 2% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 3% | 93% | |
| 93 | 2% | 91% | |
| 94 | 14% | 89% | |
| 95 | 7% | 74% | |
| 96 | 6% | 67% | Median |
| 97 | 8% | 61% | |
| 98 | 9% | 53% | |
| 99 | 11% | 44% | |
| 100 | 7% | 33% | |
| 101 | 10% | 25% | |
| 102 | 6% | 16% | |
| 103 | 3% | 10% | |
| 104 | 4% | 7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 90 | 2% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 4% | 93% | |
| 93 | 3% | 89% | |
| 94 | 19% | 85% | |
| 95 | 10% | 67% | Median |
| 96 | 10% | 57% | |
| 97 | 7% | 46% | |
| 98 | 12% | 39% | |
| 99 | 7% | 28% | |
| 100 | 7% | 21% | |
| 101 | 4% | 14% | |
| 102 | 4% | 10% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 104 | 3% | 5% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 98.9% | Majority |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 5% | 96% | |
| 88 | 5% | 91% | |
| 89 | 5% | 86% | |
| 90 | 7% | 81% | |
| 91 | 6% | 74% | |
| 92 | 17% | 68% | |
| 93 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 94 | 8% | 38% | |
| 95 | 6% | 29% | |
| 96 | 13% | 24% | |
| 97 | 4% | 11% | |
| 98 | 3% | 7% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 100 | 2% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 78 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 79 | 3% | 97% | |
| 80 | 5% | 94% | |
| 81 | 3% | 89% | |
| 82 | 9% | 86% | |
| 83 | 4% | 77% | Median |
| 84 | 8% | 72% | |
| 85 | 9% | 65% | Majority |
| 86 | 16% | 56% | |
| 87 | 9% | 40% | |
| 88 | 6% | 31% | |
| 89 | 9% | 25% | |
| 90 | 7% | 16% | |
| 91 | 3% | 9% | |
| 92 | 4% | 6% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 74 | 2% | 96% | |
| 75 | 2% | 94% | |
| 76 | 3% | 92% | Last Result |
| 77 | 11% | 89% | |
| 78 | 6% | 78% | |
| 79 | 12% | 72% | |
| 80 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 81 | 8% | 50% | |
| 82 | 8% | 41% | |
| 83 | 6% | 33% | |
| 84 | 12% | 27% | |
| 85 | 5% | 15% | Majority |
| 86 | 2% | 10% | |
| 87 | 5% | 8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 4% | 96% | |
| 72 | 5% | 93% | |
| 73 | 5% | 88% | |
| 74 | 7% | 83% | |
| 75 | 8% | 75% | |
| 76 | 16% | 67% | |
| 77 | 19% | 51% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 32% | |
| 79 | 7% | 23% | |
| 80 | 8% | 16% | |
| 81 | 6% | 8% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 67 | 4% | 94% | |
| 68 | 4% | 90% | |
| 69 | 7% | 86% | |
| 70 | 7% | 79% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 72% | |
| 72 | 7% | 61% | |
| 73 | 10% | 54% | |
| 74 | 10% | 43% | |
| 75 | 19% | 33% | |
| 76 | 3% | 15% | |
| 77 | 4% | 11% | |
| 78 | 2% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | |
| 63 | 8% | 89% | |
| 64 | 5% | 81% | |
| 65 | 10% | 77% | |
| 66 | 9% | 67% | |
| 67 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 49% | |
| 69 | 6% | 37% | |
| 70 | 6% | 31% | |
| 71 | 3% | 25% | |
| 72 | 7% | 22% | |
| 73 | 11% | 15% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 3% | 94% | |
| 59 | 6% | 91% | |
| 60 | 8% | 85% | |
| 61 | 7% | 77% | |
| 62 | 12% | 70% | |
| 63 | 7% | 57% | |
| 64 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 65 | 14% | 39% | |
| 66 | 11% | 24% | |
| 67 | 3% | 13% | |
| 68 | 3% | 10% | |
| 69 | 2% | 7% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 2% | 96% | |
| 56 | 2% | 94% | |
| 57 | 6% | 92% | |
| 58 | 6% | 86% | |
| 59 | 8% | 80% | |
| 60 | 11% | 73% | |
| 61 | 9% | 61% | |
| 62 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 63 | 17% | 43% | |
| 64 | 11% | 26% | |
| 65 | 5% | 16% | |
| 66 | 3% | 11% | |
| 67 | 3% | 8% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 4% | 94% | |
| 49 | 6% | 90% | |
| 50 | 6% | 84% | |
| 51 | 7% | 78% | |
| 52 | 12% | 71% | |
| 53 | 6% | 58% | |
| 54 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 7% | 33% | |
| 56 | 8% | 26% | |
| 57 | 10% | 19% | |
| 58 | 4% | 8% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 2% | 97% | |
| 42 | 5% | 94% | |
| 43 | 9% | 89% | |
| 44 | 10% | 80% | |
| 45 | 16% | 70% | |
| 46 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 47 | 5% | 46% | |
| 48 | 6% | 41% | |
| 49 | 5% | 34% | |
| 50 | 5% | 29% | |
| 51 | 9% | 24% | |
| 52 | 9% | 15% | |
| 53 | 2% | 6% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 39 | 4% | 97% | |
| 40 | 6% | 92% | |
| 41 | 5% | 87% | |
| 42 | 6% | 82% | |
| 43 | 10% | 76% | |
| 44 | 8% | 66% | Median |
| 45 | 8% | 58% | |
| 46 | 8% | 50% | |
| 47 | 7% | 42% | |
| 48 | 15% | 35% | |
| 49 | 4% | 20% | |
| 50 | 6% | 16% | |
| 51 | 2% | 10% | |
| 52 | 2% | 8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 28 December 2020–2 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 962
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.34%