Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 4–6 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–52 43–53 42–54 41–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 38 34–41 33–42 33–43 31–44
Senterpartiet 19 36 33–39 32–40 31–41 29–42
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 15–20 14–20 14–20 12–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 7 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 4% 97%  
44 5% 93%  
45 6% 88% Last Result
46 10% 82%  
47 15% 73%  
48 12% 57% Median
49 15% 45%  
50 8% 31%  
51 9% 23%  
52 6% 14%  
53 3% 8%  
54 3% 5%  
55 0.6% 1.4%  
56 0.5% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.6%  
32 0.8% 98.8%  
33 5% 98%  
34 5% 93%  
35 6% 88%  
36 11% 82%  
37 18% 71%  
38 9% 53% Median
39 14% 44%  
40 8% 30%  
41 13% 22%  
42 5% 8%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 1.0% 99.2%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 96%  
33 5% 93%  
34 8% 88%  
35 11% 80%  
36 41% 68% Median
37 9% 28%  
38 5% 19%  
39 8% 14%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.8%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 7% 98%  
15 15% 91%  
16 19% 76%  
17 15% 57% Median
18 15% 42%  
19 17% 27%  
20 8% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.2% 99.8%  
11 4% 98.6% Last Result
12 13% 94%  
13 16% 82%  
14 26% 65% Median
15 17% 40%  
16 14% 23%  
17 6% 8%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 43% 94%  
3 9% 51% Median
4 5% 42%  
5 0% 37%  
6 0.7% 37%  
7 10% 37%  
8 18% 26%  
9 7% 8%  
10 1.2% 1.5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 19% 100% Last Result
2 24% 81%  
3 0% 57%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0.4% 57%  
7 25% 57% Median
8 31% 32%  
9 0.2% 0.6%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 67% 98% Median
3 13% 31%  
4 1.1% 18%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.9% 17%  
7 6% 16%  
8 9% 10% Last Result
9 0.5% 1.0%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 27% 99.1%  
2 27% 72% Median
3 24% 45%  
4 0% 21%  
5 0.1% 21%  
6 0.9% 21%  
7 4% 20%  
8 12% 16% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 107 100% 102–113 100–115 99–115 97–118
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 98 99.9% 92–103 90–105 89–106 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 99.9% 90–101 89–102 88–103 86–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 88–98 86–99 85–101 83–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 98.7% 88–97 86–99 85–99 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 84% 84–92 83–93 81–95 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 27% 76–87 74–88 74–89 72–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 6% 72–83 71–85 70–85 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 76 2% 71–81 70–83 68–84 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 70–77 69–79 68–80 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0.1% 66–77 64–78 63–80 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 63–73 62–75 61–77 59–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 60–70 59–71 58–72 55–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 49–60 48–62 46–62 45–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 48–56 47–57 46–57 43–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 42 0% 38–47 37–50 36–50 34–53

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.8%  
98 0.7% 99.4%  
99 3% 98.7%  
100 3% 96%  
101 2% 93%  
102 4% 91%  
103 5% 87%  
104 6% 83%  
105 8% 77% Median
106 12% 69%  
107 8% 57% Last Result
108 7% 49%  
109 8% 41%  
110 9% 33%  
111 8% 24%  
112 4% 16%  
113 4% 12%  
114 2% 7%  
115 3% 5%  
116 1.1% 2%  
117 0.6% 1.4%  
118 0.4% 0.7%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.5%  
88 1.2% 99.1%  
89 2% 98%  
90 2% 96%  
91 3% 95%  
92 4% 92%  
93 4% 88%  
94 8% 84%  
95 9% 76%  
96 8% 67%  
97 7% 59%  
98 12% 52% Median
99 11% 40%  
100 8% 28%  
101 6% 20%  
102 3% 14%  
103 4% 11%  
104 2% 7%  
105 2% 5%  
106 3% 3%  
107 0.4% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.9% Majority
86 0.7% 99.6%  
87 0.6% 98.9%  
88 2% 98% Last Result
89 2% 97%  
90 5% 94%  
91 4% 89%  
92 9% 85%  
93 11% 77% Median
94 10% 66%  
95 10% 56%  
96 7% 46%  
97 4% 39%  
98 9% 34%  
99 5% 25%  
100 9% 21%  
101 6% 12%  
102 2% 6%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.3%  
106 0.2% 0.8%  
107 0.5% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.5%  
84 0.8% 99.0%  
85 1.5% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 3% 94%  
88 6% 92%  
89 7% 85%  
90 7% 79%  
91 6% 72%  
92 10% 65%  
93 10% 55%  
94 8% 45%  
95 7% 37% Median
96 6% 30%  
97 12% 24%  
98 6% 12%  
99 2% 6%  
100 0.9% 4%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.4% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.2%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.2%  
85 1.2% 98.7% Majority
86 3% 97%  
87 3% 95%  
88 5% 91%  
89 6% 87%  
90 9% 80%  
91 15% 71% Median
92 12% 56%  
93 9% 44%  
94 8% 35%  
95 7% 26%  
96 5% 20%  
97 5% 14%  
98 2% 9%  
99 4% 6%  
100 1.0% 2%  
101 0.7% 1.1%  
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
80 0.4% 99.3%  
81 2% 98.9%  
82 2% 97%  
83 5% 95%  
84 6% 90%  
85 8% 84% Majority
86 8% 77%  
87 12% 69%  
88 8% 57% Median
89 16% 49%  
90 11% 33%  
91 10% 22%  
92 3% 11%  
93 4% 8%  
94 2% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.5%  
73 1.4% 99.2%  
74 3% 98%  
75 2% 95%  
76 4% 93%  
77 10% 90% Last Result
78 7% 80%  
79 9% 72% Median
80 8% 63%  
81 7% 56%  
82 11% 48%  
83 7% 38%  
84 4% 31%  
85 8% 27% Majority
86 6% 19%  
87 6% 13%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.3%  
92 0.2% 0.8%  
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.1%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 5% 93%  
73 5% 88%  
74 11% 83%  
75 11% 72%  
76 9% 61% Last Result, Median
77 12% 52%  
78 9% 41%  
79 7% 32%  
80 6% 25%  
81 4% 19%  
82 3% 15%  
83 3% 11%  
84 2% 8%  
85 5% 6% Majority
86 0.4% 2%  
87 0.9% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 1.2% 99.0%  
68 1.2% 98%  
69 1.0% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 6% 93%  
72 12% 87% Median
73 7% 75%  
74 7% 69%  
75 8% 61%  
76 10% 53%  
77 10% 43%  
78 6% 33%  
79 7% 27%  
80 6% 20%  
81 6% 14%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.4% 3%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 1.2% 99.1%  
68 1.4% 98% Last Result
69 5% 96%  
70 7% 92%  
71 6% 85%  
72 11% 79%  
73 15% 68%  
74 13% 54% Median
75 11% 41%  
76 8% 30%  
77 12% 22%  
78 4% 10%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.5% 3%  
81 0.6% 1.4%  
82 0.6% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.7%  
63 3% 99.0%  
64 2% 96%  
65 2% 94%  
66 4% 92%  
67 3% 88%  
68 6% 85%  
69 8% 79% Median
70 11% 70%  
71 12% 59%  
72 7% 47%  
73 7% 40%  
74 9% 32%  
75 8% 23%  
76 4% 15%  
77 3% 11%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.5% 3%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 1.1% 99.4%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 4% 97%  
63 4% 93%  
64 5% 89%  
65 5% 84%  
66 9% 79%  
67 13% 70% Median
68 12% 57%  
69 11% 45%  
70 8% 34%  
71 6% 27%  
72 7% 20%  
73 5% 14%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.1% 4%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 1.3% 98.9%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 6% 94%  
61 3% 88%  
62 6% 85%  
63 7% 79%  
64 11% 72%  
65 13% 61% Median
66 12% 48%  
67 11% 35%  
68 7% 24%  
69 5% 17%  
70 6% 12%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 4% Last Result
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.6% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 1.3% 97%  
48 2% 96%  
49 5% 94%  
50 6% 89%  
51 11% 83%  
52 7% 72% Median
53 8% 65%  
54 8% 57%  
55 8% 48%  
56 7% 41%  
57 8% 33%  
58 7% 25%  
59 7% 18%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 8% Last Result
62 3% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 0.4% 99.4%  
45 0.9% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 7% 92%  
49 7% 85%  
50 11% 78%  
51 8% 66%  
52 6% 58% Median
53 14% 52%  
54 13% 38%  
55 15% 25%  
56 5% 10%  
57 3% 6%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.0% 99.6%  
35 1.1% 98.6% Last Result
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 5% 92%  
39 12% 86%  
40 13% 74% Median
41 10% 61%  
42 11% 51%  
43 8% 40%  
44 4% 32%  
45 4% 28%  
46 9% 24%  
47 5% 15%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7%  
50 3% 6%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations