Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 4–8 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 20.9–28.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.2% 19.2–26.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 21.7% 20.1–23.5% 19.6–24.0% 19.2–24.4% 18.5–25.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Rødt 2.4% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 43 41–47 40–48 39–49 37–51
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 38–44 37–45 36–46 34–47
Senterpartiet 19 40 37–43 36–44 35–45 35–46
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Fremskrittspartiet 27 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 10–18
Rødt 1 9 8–11 8–12 7–12 2–14
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–7 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.4%  
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 96%  
41 5% 91%  
42 17% 87%  
43 22% 70% Median
44 15% 48%  
45 9% 33% Last Result
46 5% 24%  
47 11% 19%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.7% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.5% 99.4%  
36 3% 98.9%  
37 4% 96%  
38 5% 93%  
39 12% 87%  
40 12% 76%  
41 23% 64% Median
42 15% 41%  
43 13% 26%  
44 7% 13%  
45 3% 6%  
46 1.3% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.3%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 100%  
35 2% 99.7%  
36 5% 97%  
37 9% 92%  
38 13% 82%  
39 14% 70%  
40 13% 56% Median
41 14% 43%  
42 9% 29%  
43 11% 20%  
44 6% 9%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.5% 99.9%  
11 5% 98% Last Result
12 17% 94%  
13 26% 76%  
14 23% 50% Median
15 13% 27%  
16 9% 14%  
17 3% 5%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 9% 97%  
12 17% 89%  
13 23% 72% Median
14 22% 49%  
15 16% 27%  
16 8% 11%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 3% 98%  
8 12% 95%  
9 39% 84% Median
10 23% 45%  
11 15% 22%  
12 5% 7%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 20% 99.9% Last Result
2 54% 80% Median
3 6% 26%  
4 0.8% 20%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 12% 19%  
8 6% 7%  
9 1.1% 1.3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 24% 98.8%  
2 10% 75%  
3 43% 64% Median
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0.1% 21%  
7 16% 21%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 41% 88% Median
2 47% 47%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 107 100% 103–111 103–112 101–113 99–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 104 100% 100–108 99–109 98–110 96–112
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 98–106 96–106 95–108 93–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 97–105 96–106 95–107 93–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 100% 93–102 93–103 92–104 90–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 95 100% 91–98 89–99 89–101 87–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 75% 83–92 82–93 80–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 84 50% 80–89 79–89 77–91 76–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 81 10% 77–85 76–85 75–86 74–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 62 0% 58–66 57–66 56–68 54–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 55–63 54–63 53–65 51–67
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 54–61 52–62 52–63 50–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 52–58 50–59 49–60 47–63
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 44–52 44–53 43–54 41–57
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 44 0% 41–49 39–51 38–51 37–53

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.8%  
100 1.2% 99.3%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 10% 95%  
104 4% 85%  
105 7% 81%  
106 19% 74% Median
107 14% 55%  
108 10% 41%  
109 6% 30%  
110 11% 25%  
111 8% 14%  
112 2% 6%  
113 2% 4%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.8% 1.1%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.8% 99.8%  
97 0.7% 99.0%  
98 2% 98%  
99 3% 96%  
100 4% 93%  
101 8% 89%  
102 10% 81%  
103 8% 71%  
104 18% 63% Median
105 14% 45%  
106 8% 31%  
107 6% 23%  
108 11% 17%  
109 3% 6%  
110 1.4% 3%  
111 1.3% 2%  
112 0.3% 0.6%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 1.1% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 98.5%  
95 1.0% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 4% 91%  
99 5% 87%  
100 16% 83% Median
101 16% 67%  
102 9% 51%  
103 12% 42%  
104 6% 30%  
105 8% 24%  
106 12% 16%  
107 1.4% 4% Last Result
108 1.0% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.9% 1.2%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 1.2% 99.6%  
94 0.9% 98%  
95 2% 98%  
96 4% 96%  
97 6% 91%  
98 8% 86%  
99 7% 78%  
100 18% 71% Median
101 13% 53%  
102 7% 40%  
103 13% 33%  
104 9% 20%  
105 4% 11%  
106 2% 7%  
107 3% 5%  
108 1.2% 2%  
109 0.3% 0.8%  
110 0.3% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.6%  
91 1.0% 99.1%  
92 3% 98%  
93 6% 96%  
94 6% 90%  
95 6% 83%  
96 10% 77%  
97 20% 67% Median
98 9% 47%  
99 10% 37%  
100 11% 27%  
101 5% 16%  
102 5% 11%  
103 2% 6%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.5% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.8% 99.8%  
88 0.8% 99.0%  
89 4% 98%  
90 3% 94%  
91 8% 91%  
92 4% 84%  
93 12% 80%  
94 12% 68%  
95 19% 56% Median
96 10% 38%  
97 10% 27%  
98 7% 17%  
99 6% 10%  
100 1.2% 4%  
101 1.4% 3%  
102 0.6% 1.5%  
103 0.7% 0.9%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 1.2% 99.8%  
80 1.3% 98.6%  
81 1.2% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 9% 94%  
84 11% 85%  
85 5% 75% Majority
86 12% 70% Median
87 8% 57%  
88 18% 49%  
89 7% 32%  
90 5% 25%  
91 9% 19%  
92 3% 11%  
93 3% 7%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
77 2% 98.8%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 93%  
81 8% 90%  
82 11% 81%  
83 9% 70%  
84 11% 61% Median
85 12% 50% Majority
86 15% 38%  
87 9% 23%  
88 2% 14%  
89 7% 11%  
90 1.2% 5%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.9% 1.2%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.9% 99.7%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 94%  
78 9% 90%  
79 8% 81%  
80 14% 73%  
81 15% 59% Median
82 15% 45%  
83 12% 30%  
84 7% 18%  
85 6% 10% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.9% 1.2%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 1.3% 99.4%  
59 1.4% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 11% 94%  
62 6% 83% Median
63 8% 76%  
64 14% 69%  
65 18% 55%  
66 8% 37%  
67 10% 29%  
68 8% 19%  
69 4% 11%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.7%  
55 1.1% 98.9%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 8% 94%  
59 11% 86%  
60 6% 75% Median
61 10% 69%  
62 14% 59%  
63 19% 44%  
64 7% 25%  
65 4% 18%  
66 10% 14%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.0% 3%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 1.0% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 6% 93%  
56 16% 88%  
57 8% 72% Median
58 12% 64%  
59 15% 52%  
60 11% 37%  
61 10% 26%  
62 7% 17%  
63 6% 10%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 0.8% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 1.0% 98.6%  
52 3% 98%  
53 3% 95%  
54 5% 92%  
55 16% 86%  
56 11% 70% Median
57 12% 59%  
58 16% 47%  
59 7% 30%  
60 10% 23%  
61 6% 13%  
62 4% 8%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.8% 1.2%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 1.3% 99.3%  
49 1.4% 98%  
50 3% 97%  
51 2% 93%  
52 15% 91%  
53 10% 76%  
54 16% 66%  
55 8% 50% Median
56 9% 42%  
57 22% 33%  
58 5% 11%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 0.7% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.8%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.2%  
43 3% 98%  
44 7% 96%  
45 5% 89%  
46 12% 83%  
47 11% 72% Median
48 16% 61%  
49 8% 45%  
50 11% 37%  
51 10% 26%  
52 7% 17%  
53 6% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.3%  
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 3% 97%  
40 4% 95%  
41 8% 91%  
42 9% 83%  
43 16% 74%  
44 11% 59% Median
45 12% 48%  
46 9% 36%  
47 5% 27%  
48 9% 21%  
49 2% 12%  
50 1.4% 10%  
51 6% 8%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.9% 1.3%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations