Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 13 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.9% 25.1–28.8% 24.6–29.3% 24.1–29.8% 23.3–30.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.0–22.3% 17.6–22.8% 16.9–23.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.2% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.8% 8.6–11.1% 8.3–11.5% 8.0–11.8% 7.5–12.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 5.9–10.5%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 45–54 44–54 44–55 41–57
Senterpartiet 19 37 35–41 34–42 33–43 31–44
Arbeiderpartiet 49 35 32–38 31–40 30–41 29–42
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–20 15–22 14–22 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–19
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–9 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.5%  
43 0.8% 98.9%  
44 4% 98%  
45 5% 94% Last Result
46 11% 89%  
47 15% 78%  
48 11% 63%  
49 9% 51% Median
50 17% 43%  
51 6% 26%  
52 5% 20%  
53 5% 15%  
54 8% 11%  
55 1.4% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.1%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.8%  
32 1.3% 99.0%  
33 1.4% 98%  
34 4% 96%  
35 5% 92%  
36 16% 87%  
37 22% 71% Median
38 15% 49%  
39 12% 34%  
40 8% 22%  
41 8% 14%  
42 1.4% 5%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.9% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 7% 91%  
33 10% 84%  
34 15% 74%  
35 14% 59% Median
36 13% 45%  
37 14% 32%  
38 10% 18%  
39 3% 9%  
40 3% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 5% 97%  
16 17% 92%  
17 19% 75%  
18 13% 56% Median
19 26% 43%  
20 9% 17%  
21 2% 8%  
22 4% 6%  
23 0.8% 1.1%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.7% Last Result
12 6% 98%  
13 15% 92%  
14 25% 77%  
15 14% 52% Median
16 22% 38%  
17 12% 16%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.6% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 28% 99.8%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 7% 72%  
8 27% 65% Median
9 27% 38%  
10 8% 11%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 19% 99.9% Last Result
2 55% 81% Median
3 4% 26%  
4 0.9% 22%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0% 21%  
7 11% 21%  
8 8% 10%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 36% 99.4%  
2 30% 64% Median
3 16% 33%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 8% 17%  
8 6% 9% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 24% 97%  
2 69% 73% Median
3 2% 4%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.9% 2%  
8 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 109 100% 104–114 103–116 102–117 100–120
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 98 99.9% 93–102 91–103 90–104 87–106
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 93 99.6% 89–99 87–100 87–101 85–103
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 98.9% 90–99 88–100 86–101 84–102
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 95% 86–96 84–98 83–98 82–101
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 81% 83–92 82–94 81–95 78–97
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 78 9% 74–84 73–86 72–87 70–89
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.5% 72–79 71–81 69–82 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 75 1.1% 70–79 69–81 68–82 66–85
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet 68 73 0% 69–77 68–78 66–79 65–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0.1% 67–76 66–77 65–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 69 0% 64–74 62–74 61–75 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 63–72 61–72 59–73 58–76
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 49–58 48–60 48–61 46–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 50 0% 46–54 44–55 44–56 42–58
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 42 0% 39–47 38–48 37–49 35–53

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.5% 99.3%  
102 2% 98.9%  
103 3% 97%  
104 5% 94%  
105 6% 88%  
106 5% 82%  
107 13% 77% Last Result
108 8% 64% Median
109 11% 57%  
110 9% 46%  
111 12% 37%  
112 7% 25%  
113 4% 18%  
114 5% 14%  
115 3% 8%  
116 3% 5%  
117 0.9% 3%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.4% 0.9%  
120 0.4% 0.5%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.4% 99.3%  
89 0.9% 98.9%  
90 1.2% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 3% 95%  
93 8% 91%  
94 8% 84%  
95 8% 76%  
96 8% 68%  
97 7% 60% Median
98 9% 53%  
99 10% 44%  
100 10% 34%  
101 12% 23%  
102 4% 12%  
103 5% 8%  
104 1.5% 3%  
105 0.7% 1.5%  
106 0.5% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.7% 99.6% Majority
86 1.2% 98.9%  
87 4% 98%  
88 3% 94% Last Result
89 6% 91%  
90 9% 85%  
91 8% 76% Median
92 6% 68%  
93 16% 62%  
94 10% 46%  
95 9% 36%  
96 5% 27%  
97 3% 21%  
98 6% 18%  
99 6% 12%  
100 1.2% 6%  
101 3% 5%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.8% 99.7%  
85 0.8% 98.9% Majority
86 0.6% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 96%  
89 3% 94%  
90 4% 91%  
91 9% 87%  
92 7% 78%  
93 13% 72%  
94 11% 59%  
95 7% 48% Median
96 10% 41%  
97 9% 31%  
98 5% 22%  
99 10% 17%  
100 3% 6%  
101 2% 4%  
102 0.8% 1.3%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.5% 99.5%  
83 2% 99.1%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 7% 92%  
87 7% 85%  
88 9% 78%  
89 8% 70% Median
90 7% 62%  
91 14% 55%  
92 8% 40%  
93 10% 32%  
94 8% 22%  
95 2% 14%  
96 3% 12%  
97 3% 8%  
98 3% 5%  
99 1.4% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.7%  
101 0.4% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 0.9% 99.4% Last Result
80 0.9% 98%  
81 2% 98%  
82 4% 96%  
83 4% 92%  
84 7% 88%  
85 9% 81% Majority
86 7% 72%  
87 15% 65% Median
88 7% 50%  
89 10% 43%  
90 11% 33%  
91 10% 22%  
92 4% 12%  
93 3% 8%  
94 1.2% 5%  
95 3% 4%  
96 0.4% 1.0%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.9% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 4% 97%  
74 9% 94%  
75 5% 85%  
76 7% 80% Median
77 13% 73% Last Result
78 14% 60%  
79 9% 46%  
80 6% 37%  
81 10% 30%  
82 4% 20%  
83 5% 16%  
84 3% 12%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 1.1% 5%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 98.9%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 4% 95%  
72 9% 91%  
73 6% 83%  
74 9% 76% Median
75 14% 67%  
76 16% 53% Last Result
77 10% 37%  
78 7% 27%  
79 10% 20%  
80 4% 9%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.9% 99.5%  
68 3% 98.5%  
69 3% 96%  
70 10% 93%  
71 6% 83%  
72 9% 77%  
73 10% 68% Median
74 7% 58%  
75 11% 51%  
76 12% 40%  
77 7% 27%  
78 8% 21%  
79 4% 12%  
80 3% 9%  
81 1.4% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.8% 2%  
85 0.8% 1.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.5%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 1.5% 97%  
68 6% 96% Last Result
69 5% 90%  
70 7% 85%  
71 11% 78%  
72 10% 67% Median
73 13% 57%  
74 12% 44%  
75 13% 32%  
76 8% 19%  
77 5% 11%  
78 4% 6%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.9% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 5% 97%  
67 4% 92%  
68 12% 88%  
69 10% 76%  
70 11% 65%  
71 9% 55% Median
72 7% 46%  
73 8% 39%  
74 8% 31%  
75 8% 23%  
76 7% 15%  
77 3% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.3% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 3% 99.4%  
62 2% 96%  
63 2% 94%  
64 3% 93%  
65 8% 89%  
66 7% 81%  
67 13% 75%  
68 11% 62%  
69 12% 51% Median
70 7% 38%  
71 9% 31%  
72 4% 22%  
73 8% 18%  
74 7% 10%  
75 1.2% 3%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 3% 99.4%  
60 1.1% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 3% 93%  
63 5% 90%  
64 10% 85%  
65 8% 75%  
66 15% 67%  
67 13% 52% Median
68 8% 39%  
69 7% 31%  
70 4% 24%  
71 9% 20%  
72 5% 10% Last Result
73 3% 5%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 0.5% 99.3%  
48 4% 98.8%  
49 5% 95%  
50 9% 89%  
51 13% 80%  
52 12% 67%  
53 13% 55% Median
54 9% 42%  
55 7% 34%  
56 5% 27%  
57 7% 22%  
58 6% 15%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4% Last Result
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 1.1% 99.6%  
43 0.8% 98.5%  
44 3% 98%  
45 4% 95%  
46 3% 91%  
47 9% 87%  
48 9% 79%  
49 16% 69%  
50 10% 53% Median
51 13% 43%  
52 7% 30%  
53 8% 23%  
54 8% 15%  
55 4% 7%  
56 1.2% 3%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
36 1.5% 99.1%  
37 2% 98%  
38 3% 95%  
39 10% 92%  
40 15% 82%  
41 12% 66% Median
42 12% 54%  
43 6% 42%  
44 15% 36%  
45 4% 21%  
46 5% 17%  
47 6% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 1.1% 4%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.3% 1.0%  
52 0.1% 0.7%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations