Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 12–16 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.3–23.5% 18.9–24.0% 18.1–24.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.5–23.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Venstre 4.4% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 40 37–45 36–46 35–46 34–48
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 37–43 35–44 35–45 32–46
Senterpartiet 19 37 35–40 34–41 33–42 31–43
Fremskrittspartiet 27 14 12–17 11–17 11–18 10–19
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 10–17 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 11 9–13 9–13 8–14 8–15
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–7 1–7 1–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–6 0–7
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 1.3% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 98.6%  
36 3% 97%  
37 8% 95%  
38 7% 86%  
39 15% 79%  
40 15% 64% Median
41 21% 49%  
42 7% 28%  
43 5% 20%  
44 4% 16%  
45 4% 11% Last Result
46 6% 7%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.2%  
34 0.8% 98%  
35 3% 98%  
36 3% 94%  
37 11% 92%  
38 11% 81%  
39 7% 69%  
40 15% 63% Median
41 25% 47%  
42 7% 22%  
43 8% 15%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.7% 0.8%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.4%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 4% 96%  
35 10% 92%  
36 21% 82%  
37 23% 61% Median
38 16% 38%  
39 10% 22%  
40 3% 11%  
41 5% 9%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.0% 1.4%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 5% 98%  
12 8% 93%  
13 17% 85%  
14 22% 68% Median
15 18% 46%  
16 18% 28%  
17 7% 11%  
18 2% 3%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.4%  
11 15% 95% Last Result
12 18% 80%  
13 21% 62% Median
14 16% 41%  
15 15% 25%  
16 5% 9%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.5% 0.9%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 4% 99.6%  
9 14% 96%  
10 19% 81%  
11 30% 62% Median
12 23% 33%  
13 7% 10%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.8% 1.2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 71% 85% Median
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 4% 15%  
7 9% 11%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 43% 90% Median
2 17% 47%  
3 27% 30%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 1.1% 3%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 17% 97%  
2 79% 81% Median
3 0.6% 2%  
4 0.1% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0.2% 1.2%  
7 0.8% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 104 100% 100–107 98–109 97–110 95–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 103 100% 99–107 98–108 97–109 94–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 101 100% 97–105 96–106 95–107 93–110
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 100% 92–101 90–103 89–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 99.6% 89–96 88–98 87–99 85–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 90 95% 86–93 84–94 83–96 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 97% 87–94 86–95 84–95 82–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 3% 75–83 73–84 72–85 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 77 0.1% 73–80 72–81 71–82 68–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 69 0% 65–75 64–77 63–77 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 58 0% 54–64 54–65 52–66 51–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 56 0% 53–62 51–64 51–64 49–67
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 54 0% 51–60 50–62 49–62 47–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 50–57 49–57 47–58 45–60
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 44 0% 41–49 40–49 39–50 38–53
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–46 34–49

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.8%  
96 0.5% 99.4%  
97 2% 98.9%  
98 2% 97%  
99 4% 95%  
100 7% 91%  
101 9% 84%  
102 9% 75%  
103 9% 66% Median
104 20% 57%  
105 14% 37%  
106 7% 23%  
107 6% 16%  
108 5% 10%  
109 2% 5%  
110 2% 4%  
111 0.4% 2%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.8% 0.9%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 0.5% 99.3%  
96 0.9% 98.7%  
97 2% 98%  
98 3% 96%  
99 9% 93%  
100 6% 85%  
101 13% 79%  
102 11% 66% Median
103 10% 54%  
104 15% 44%  
105 9% 29%  
106 9% 21%  
107 6% 11%  
108 2% 5%  
109 1.4% 3%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.7% 1.1%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.6% 99.5%  
94 0.6% 98.9%  
95 2% 98%  
96 2% 96%  
97 5% 94%  
98 10% 88%  
99 9% 79%  
100 10% 69%  
101 11% 59% Median
102 16% 48%  
103 15% 33%  
104 5% 18%  
105 5% 13%  
106 5% 8%  
107 1.0% 3%  
108 0.8% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.8%  
110 0.4% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.4% 99.9%  
88 0.7% 99.5%  
89 2% 98.8%  
90 3% 97%  
91 4% 95%  
92 8% 91%  
93 15% 83%  
94 11% 68% Median
95 9% 57%  
96 14% 48%  
97 8% 34%  
98 6% 26%  
99 3% 20%  
100 5% 17%  
101 4% 13%  
102 2% 9%  
103 6% 7%  
104 0.5% 1.4%  
105 0.7% 0.9%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.8% 99.6% Majority
86 1.2% 98.8%  
87 2% 98%  
88 4% 96%  
89 7% 92%  
90 8% 85%  
91 10% 77%  
92 13% 66% Median
93 13% 54%  
94 12% 41%  
95 10% 29%  
96 9% 19%  
97 5% 10%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.3% 3%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.3% 1.3%  
102 0.9% 1.0%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.6% 99.6%  
82 0.8% 99.0%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 4% 95% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 9% 87%  
88 14% 78%  
89 13% 64% Median
90 13% 51%  
91 8% 38%  
92 9% 30%  
93 11% 21%  
94 5% 10%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.8% 1.2%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.8% 99.5%  
84 1.5% 98.7%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 4% 95%  
87 9% 91%  
88 9% 83%  
89 13% 74%  
90 13% 61% Median
91 15% 48%  
92 12% 33%  
93 8% 20%  
94 7% 12%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.6% 0.9%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 1.2% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 4% 92%  
76 13% 88% Last Result
77 8% 75%  
78 10% 67% Median
79 13% 57%  
80 12% 43%  
81 13% 32%  
82 7% 19%  
83 7% 12%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.4% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 1.4% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 96%  
73 5% 94%  
74 9% 89%  
75 8% 80%  
76 10% 73%  
77 13% 62% Median
78 19% 50%  
79 11% 31%  
80 12% 20%  
81 4% 8%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.7% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 1.1% 99.5%  
63 3% 98%  
64 2% 95%  
65 6% 93%  
66 11% 87%  
67 15% 76%  
68 10% 60% Median
69 7% 50%  
70 7% 43%  
71 6% 36%  
72 8% 30%  
73 6% 22%  
74 5% 16%  
75 2% 11%  
76 2% 10%  
77 6% 8%  
78 0.4% 2%  
79 0.8% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.7%  
52 1.4% 98.9%  
53 2% 97%  
54 7% 96%  
55 10% 88%  
56 11% 79%  
57 13% 67% Median
58 9% 55%  
59 9% 46%  
60 9% 36%  
61 7% 28%  
62 4% 20%  
63 4% 16%  
64 4% 12%  
65 6% 8%  
66 1.3% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.6% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.4% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 0.9% 99.1%  
51 3% 98%  
52 4% 95%  
53 11% 91%  
54 10% 80%  
55 12% 69%  
56 9% 57% Median
57 12% 48%  
58 9% 36%  
59 4% 27%  
60 7% 23%  
61 4% 17%  
62 3% 12%  
63 3% 10%  
64 5% 7%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.9%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 0.8% 99.2%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 96%  
51 9% 92%  
52 13% 84%  
53 10% 71%  
54 12% 61% Median
55 12% 48%  
56 9% 37%  
57 3% 28%  
58 6% 25%  
59 6% 18%  
60 3% 13%  
61 3% 10%  
62 5% 7%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.8%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.7%  
46 1.1% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 1.0% 97%  
49 3% 96%  
50 7% 93%  
51 14% 86%  
52 15% 71%  
53 14% 56% Median
54 11% 42%  
55 12% 31%  
56 9% 19%  
57 6% 10%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 96%  
41 8% 91%  
42 13% 83%  
43 15% 69% Median
44 13% 54%  
45 10% 41%  
46 10% 32%  
47 5% 21%  
48 6% 16%  
49 7% 10%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.4% 1.0%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 1.1% 99.3% Last Result
36 3% 98%  
37 4% 95%  
38 8% 91%  
39 10% 84%  
40 17% 74% Median
41 27% 57%  
42 10% 30%  
43 7% 20%  
44 5% 13%  
45 3% 8%  
46 2% 5%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.6%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations