Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 18–24 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.6% 23.8–27.5% 23.3–28.0% 22.9–28.4% 22.1–29.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.2% 22.5–26.1% 22.0–26.6% 21.6–27.0% 20.8–27.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.6% 18.0–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.2–22.3% 16.5–23.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.6–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.4%
Venstre 4.4% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–50 42–51 42–52 40–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–47 40–49 40–51 39–52
Senterpartiet 19 36 34–39 32–40 32–41 30–43
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 16–21 16–22 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–17 12–17 11–18 11–19
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–3 1–4 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–8
Venstre 8 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.3%  
42 4% 98%  
43 6% 94%  
44 12% 88%  
45 21% 76% Last Result
46 12% 55% Median
47 17% 44%  
48 7% 27%  
49 7% 20%  
50 6% 13%  
51 3% 7%  
52 1.3% 4%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.7% 0.9%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.6%  
40 6% 98.7%  
41 9% 92%  
42 8% 84%  
43 5% 76%  
44 12% 70%  
45 29% 58% Median
46 17% 30%  
47 4% 13%  
48 1.4% 9%  
49 3% 8% Last Result
50 2% 5%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.2%  
32 4% 98%  
33 4% 95%  
34 12% 90%  
35 14% 78%  
36 19% 65% Median
37 13% 45%  
38 17% 32%  
39 8% 15%  
40 3% 7%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.0%  
16 8% 96%  
17 17% 88%  
18 21% 71%  
19 22% 50% Median
20 13% 28%  
21 9% 15%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7% Last Result
12 21% 97%  
13 25% 76%  
14 13% 50% Median
15 10% 37%  
16 14% 27%  
17 9% 13%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 40% 98%  
3 0.6% 58%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 6% 57%  
8 37% 52% Median
9 13% 14%  
10 1.1% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 38% 99.8% Last Result
2 52% 62% Median
3 4% 10%  
4 1.5% 6%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 2% 5%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 58% 89% Median
2 23% 31%  
3 6% 8%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 29% 38%  
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 103 100% 99–107 98–109 97–111 95–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 103 100% 98–106 96–107 95–108 93–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 101 100% 96–104 94–105 93–106 91–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 98 100% 94–103 93–104 92–105 90–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 100% 93–101 92–102 91–103 89–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 95 99.9% 91–99 89–100 89–102 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 84 47% 80–89 78–90 77–91 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 82 21% 78–86 76–88 75–89 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 81 11% 77–85 75–86 74–88 72–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 68 0% 65–73 64–75 63–76 61–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 66 0% 63–71 62–73 61–74 59–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 61–70 61–71 60–72 57–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–72 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 52–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 45–52 45–54 44–55 42–57
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–44 31–46

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 1.4% 99.2%  
97 1.1% 98%  
98 3% 97%  
99 5% 94%  
100 9% 89%  
101 10% 80%  
102 20% 71% Median
103 16% 51%  
104 7% 35%  
105 6% 27%  
106 6% 21%  
107 5% 14% Last Result
108 3% 9%  
109 2% 6%  
110 2% 5%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.8% 1.2%  
113 0.3% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.5% 99.9%  
94 0.5% 99.4%  
95 2% 98.9%  
96 3% 97%  
97 2% 94%  
98 5% 92%  
99 6% 87%  
100 8% 82%  
101 8% 73%  
102 12% 65%  
103 18% 54%  
104 10% 36%  
105 12% 26% Median
106 8% 14%  
107 3% 6%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.8% 1.4%  
110 0.4% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.5% 99.7%  
92 0.7% 99.2%  
93 1.1% 98.5%  
94 3% 97%  
95 3% 94%  
96 5% 92%  
97 7% 87%  
98 7% 80%  
99 8% 73%  
100 12% 65%  
101 14% 53%  
102 13% 39%  
103 9% 26% Median
104 10% 17%  
105 4% 8%  
106 2% 4%  
107 0.9% 1.5%  
108 0.4% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.8%  
91 1.2% 99.3%  
92 2% 98%  
93 4% 96%  
94 3% 93%  
95 11% 90%  
96 11% 79%  
97 12% 68%  
98 15% 56% Median
99 8% 40%  
100 8% 32%  
101 7% 24%  
102 7% 17%  
103 4% 11%  
104 4% 7%  
105 1.4% 3%  
106 1.2% 2%  
107 0.6% 0.9%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 1.0% 99.2%  
91 3% 98%  
92 3% 95%  
93 5% 92%  
94 11% 87%  
95 14% 76%  
96 10% 62%  
97 16% 53% Median
98 10% 37%  
99 6% 27%  
100 7% 21%  
101 5% 14%  
102 4% 9%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.3% 2%  
105 0.8% 1.2%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 1.4% 99.1%  
89 3% 98%  
90 3% 95%  
91 5% 92%  
92 11% 87%  
93 12% 76%  
94 11% 64%  
95 12% 53% Median
96 14% 41%  
97 7% 27%  
98 7% 20%  
99 4% 13%  
100 6% 10%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.3% 3%  
103 0.5% 1.2%  
104 0.5% 0.7%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 0.8% 99.5%  
77 2% 98.7% Last Result
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 94%  
80 5% 91%  
81 6% 86%  
82 8% 80%  
83 15% 72%  
84 10% 57% Median
85 16% 47% Majority
86 11% 31%  
87 5% 20%  
88 4% 15%  
89 3% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 1.0% 99.4%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 97% Last Result
77 3% 94%  
78 7% 91%  
79 5% 85%  
80 7% 80%  
81 12% 73%  
82 14% 61% Median
83 10% 46%  
84 16% 37%  
85 9% 21% Majority
86 3% 12%  
87 2% 9%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 1.4%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.5%  
74 2% 98.7%  
75 4% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 8% 91%  
78 6% 83%  
79 9% 77%  
80 15% 69%  
81 11% 54% Median
82 13% 43%  
83 15% 31%  
84 5% 15%  
85 3% 11% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 1.4% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 99.4%  
63 2% 98.5%  
64 4% 96%  
65 10% 92%  
66 9% 83%  
67 13% 74%  
68 14% 61% Median
69 12% 47%  
70 8% 35%  
71 7% 27%  
72 7% 20%  
73 5% 13%  
74 3% 8%  
75 3% 6%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.5%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.4%  
61 2% 98.6%  
62 3% 97%  
63 8% 94%  
64 12% 86%  
65 10% 74%  
66 18% 64% Median
67 12% 46%  
68 8% 35%  
69 8% 27%  
70 6% 18%  
71 5% 13%  
72 2% 8%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.5% 1.1%  
76 0.5% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 1.0% 98.9%  
60 2% 98%  
61 7% 96%  
62 6% 89%  
63 14% 83%  
64 9% 69%  
65 18% 59% Median
66 10% 41%  
67 5% 31%  
68 8% 25%  
69 5% 17%  
70 6% 12%  
71 2% 6%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.6% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.8% 99.3%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 10% 95%  
62 10% 85%  
63 10% 75%  
64 13% 66%  
65 18% 53% Median
66 7% 35%  
67 6% 28%  
68 7% 22%  
69 6% 14%  
70 4% 8%  
71 2% 4%  
72 2% 3% Last Result
73 0.3% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 3% 99.1%  
54 2% 96%  
55 6% 94%  
56 12% 88%  
57 15% 76%  
58 19% 61%  
59 8% 42% Median
60 9% 34% Last Result
61 7% 25%  
62 7% 18%  
63 5% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 1.3% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 11% 96%  
46 14% 84%  
47 19% 71% Median
48 14% 52%  
49 11% 38%  
50 10% 27%  
51 5% 18%  
52 4% 12%  
53 3% 8%  
54 3% 5%  
55 0.7% 3%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.8% 1.1%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.4%  
33 3% 98%  
34 3% 95%  
35 6% 92% Last Result
36 11% 86%  
37 14% 75% Median
38 15% 60%  
39 15% 45%  
40 14% 30%  
41 8% 16%  
42 4% 8%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.4% 3%  
45 0.6% 1.4%  
46 0.5% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations