Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 25–29 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.3% 23.4–27.5% 22.8–28.1% 22.3–28.6% 21.4–29.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 19.9% 18.2–21.9% 17.6–22.5% 17.2–23.0% 16.4–24.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.9% 18.2–21.9% 17.6–22.5% 17.2–23.0% 16.4–24.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.2–9.5% 6.0–9.8% 5.5–10.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.0–8.5%
Rødt 2.4% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.5–7.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Venstre 4.4% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 41–49 40–52 39–53 37–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 38 32–41 30–41 30–42 27–44
Senterpartiet 19 37 36–42 35–44 34–44 31–46
Fremskrittspartiet 27 13 10–15 9–16 9–17 8–18
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–12 7–13 7–13 6–15
Rødt 1 9 7–11 6–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 6–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–8 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 0–3 0–6 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.0% 99.4%  
39 2% 98%  
40 6% 96%  
41 4% 90%  
42 6% 86%  
43 17% 79%  
44 13% 63%  
45 9% 50% Last Result, Median
46 14% 41%  
47 4% 27%  
48 5% 23%  
49 8% 18%  
50 2% 10%  
51 2% 7%  
52 1.4% 5%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.8% 1.3%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.5%  
29 1.4% 98.9%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 95%  
32 2% 91%  
33 4% 88%  
34 7% 85%  
35 7% 78%  
36 7% 71%  
37 12% 64%  
38 16% 51% Median
39 11% 36%  
40 13% 24%  
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.9% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 0.5% 99.5%  
33 1.4% 99.0%  
34 2% 98%  
35 5% 96%  
36 37% 91%  
37 10% 53% Median
38 14% 44%  
39 9% 30%  
40 4% 21%  
41 4% 17%  
42 5% 13%  
43 3% 8%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 1.1% 1.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 6% 98%  
10 8% 92%  
11 11% 84%  
12 13% 72%  
13 19% 59% Median
14 17% 41%  
15 15% 23%  
16 5% 8%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 2% 99.5%  
7 6% 98%  
8 12% 92%  
9 22% 80%  
10 20% 58% Median
11 21% 38% Last Result
12 11% 17%  
13 4% 6%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 4% 100%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 5% 96%  
7 10% 90%  
8 25% 80%  
9 27% 56% Median
10 18% 29%  
11 7% 11%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 5% 99.8%  
3 3% 95%  
4 0.1% 92%  
5 0.1% 92%  
6 5% 91%  
7 15% 86%  
8 35% 71% Median
9 17% 37%  
10 15% 20%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 36% 99.9%  
3 4% 64%  
4 0.3% 60%  
5 0.2% 60%  
6 8% 60%  
7 23% 51% Median
8 20% 28% Last Result
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 41% 92%  
2 18% 51% Median
3 29% 33%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0.1% 5%  
6 3% 5%  
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 97–108 95–110 95–112 93–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 101 100% 96–107 94–108 92–109 90–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 98.6% 89–100 87–101 86–101 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 88–99 87–100 85–100 82–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 97% 87–98 85–99 84–100 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 49% 80–90 78–91 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 51% 80–89 78–90 76–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 2% 72–81 70–83 69–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0% 71–79 68–80 68–82 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 73 0.3% 67–79 66–80 65–82 62–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 65 0% 60–70 58–72 58–73 55–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 58–69 56–70 56–72 54–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 58 0% 53–63 52–65 51–67 49–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 52 0% 47–58 46–59 45–61 43–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 45 0% 40–50 39–52 38–54 37–55
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 48 0% 42–51 40–53 39–53 37–55

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 0.9% 99.4%  
95 4% 98%  
96 2% 94%  
97 3% 92%  
98 6% 90%  
99 4% 84%  
100 5% 80%  
101 12% 75%  
102 7% 63%  
103 14% 56%  
104 10% 42% Median
105 7% 32%  
106 7% 24%  
107 4% 17% Last Result
108 3% 13%  
109 2% 9%  
110 3% 7%  
111 1.0% 4%  
112 1.0% 3%  
113 1.0% 2%  
114 0.2% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.9% 99.3%  
92 2% 98%  
93 1.4% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 5% 90%  
97 6% 85%  
98 4% 79%  
99 9% 76%  
100 8% 67%  
101 12% 59%  
102 11% 47% Median
103 8% 36%  
104 5% 27%  
105 8% 22%  
106 4% 14%  
107 3% 10%  
108 4% 7%  
109 2% 3%  
110 1.0% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.7%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.2% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.9% 99.5%  
85 0.8% 98.6% Majority
86 0.8% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 4% 95% Last Result
89 3% 91%  
90 5% 89%  
91 5% 83%  
92 7% 78%  
93 9% 71%  
94 11% 62%  
95 11% 51% Median
96 10% 40%  
97 8% 30%  
98 5% 22%  
99 5% 17%  
100 4% 12%  
101 5% 8%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.7% 2%  
104 0.5% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.7% 99.3%  
84 1.0% 98.6%  
85 1.0% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 3% 95%  
88 4% 92%  
89 6% 88%  
90 8% 82%  
91 8% 74%  
92 6% 66%  
93 11% 60%  
94 14% 49% Median
95 7% 34%  
96 5% 27%  
97 8% 22%  
98 4% 14%  
99 4% 10%  
100 4% 6%  
101 1.1% 2%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.3% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.5%  
83 0.9% 99.2%  
84 1.2% 98%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 2% 95%  
87 5% 93%  
88 4% 88%  
89 5% 84%  
90 6% 79%  
91 10% 72%  
92 10% 63%  
93 14% 53% Median
94 11% 39%  
95 4% 28%  
96 5% 24%  
97 7% 19%  
98 4% 11%  
99 4% 7%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.5% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.0%  
77 0.9% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 3% 94% Last Result
80 4% 91%  
81 5% 87%  
82 9% 82%  
83 8% 73%  
84 16% 65%  
85 14% 49% Median, Majority
86 5% 35%  
87 7% 29%  
88 3% 23%  
89 8% 20%  
90 5% 12%  
91 6% 7%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 99.1%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 0.8% 97% Last Result
78 3% 97%  
79 2% 93%  
80 6% 91%  
81 5% 85%  
82 7% 80%  
83 9% 74%  
84 14% 65%  
85 11% 51% Median, Majority
86 9% 40%  
87 8% 31%  
88 8% 23%  
89 6% 15%  
90 5% 10%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.9% 1.4%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.6% 99.2%  
69 3% 98.6%  
70 2% 96%  
71 2% 94%  
72 5% 92%  
73 5% 87%  
74 10% 82%  
75 11% 72%  
76 10% 61% Last Result
77 11% 51% Median
78 9% 40%  
79 7% 31%  
80 8% 25%  
81 8% 17%  
82 3% 9%  
83 4% 6%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 1.2% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.3%  
67 0.9% 98.6%  
68 3% 98% Last Result
69 2% 95%  
70 2% 93%  
71 6% 90%  
72 8% 85%  
73 12% 77%  
74 14% 65%  
75 12% 51% Median
76 10% 39%  
77 7% 29%  
78 8% 22%  
79 6% 15%  
80 4% 9%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 1.1% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.5%  
64 1.1% 99.0%  
65 0.6% 98%  
66 7% 97%  
67 2% 90%  
68 3% 89%  
69 8% 86%  
70 7% 78%  
71 8% 71%  
72 9% 63%  
73 6% 54%  
74 8% 49%  
75 13% 40% Median
76 10% 27%  
77 4% 18%  
78 3% 13%  
79 5% 11%  
80 1.4% 6%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.5%  
57 0.9% 98.6%  
58 4% 98%  
59 3% 93%  
60 4% 90%  
61 7% 86%  
62 7% 79%  
63 8% 72%  
64 9% 64%  
65 7% 55%  
66 8% 48%  
67 11% 40% Median
68 11% 29%  
69 4% 17%  
70 6% 14%  
71 2% 8%  
72 2% 6%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.4% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.4%  
76 0.4% 1.0%  
77 0.4% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.6%  
55 0.9% 98.7%  
56 4% 98%  
57 2% 94%  
58 5% 91%  
59 6% 86%  
60 7% 81%  
61 10% 74%  
62 10% 63%  
63 6% 53%  
64 11% 47%  
65 7% 35% Median
66 4% 28%  
67 10% 24%  
68 4% 14%  
69 4% 10%  
70 1.3% 6%  
71 0.9% 5%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.4% 1.4%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.4% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.6%  
50 1.3% 99.0%  
51 1.4% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 7% 94%  
54 11% 87%  
55 6% 76%  
56 11% 71%  
57 5% 60%  
58 13% 54% Median
59 9% 41%  
60 11% 33%  
61 6% 21%  
62 5% 15%  
63 2% 10%  
64 3% 9%  
65 1.5% 6%  
66 1.2% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 1.3% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 96%  
47 7% 91%  
48 5% 84%  
49 5% 79%  
50 8% 74%  
51 9% 66%  
52 7% 57%  
53 7% 50%  
54 15% 43% Median
55 7% 28%  
56 6% 20%  
57 3% 14%  
58 4% 11%  
59 3% 7%  
60 0.8% 4%  
61 1.0% 3% Last Result
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.4% 99.6%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 4% 97%  
40 4% 93%  
41 12% 89%  
42 6% 77%  
43 6% 71%  
44 13% 65%  
45 9% 53%  
46 10% 44% Median
47 9% 34%  
48 6% 25%  
49 6% 19%  
50 4% 13%  
51 2% 9%  
52 2% 7%  
53 0.9% 4%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.6%  
38 1.3% 99.1%  
39 3% 98%  
40 2% 95%  
41 3% 93%  
42 2% 90%  
43 5% 88%  
44 9% 83%  
45 8% 74%  
46 4% 66%  
47 12% 62%  
48 15% 50% Median
49 14% 35%  
50 7% 21%  
51 4% 14%  
52 4% 10%  
53 4% 6%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.5%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations