Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 27 January–2 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.8% 17.3–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.5–21.4% 15.8–22.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 43–51 43–53 42–54 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–44 38–46 36–48 35–49
Senterpartiet 19 35 32–38 31–38 30–40 29–41
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 13–18 13–18 12–19 11–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–16 11–16 10–18
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 0.9% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 6% 96%  
44 6% 90%  
45 15% 84% Last Result
46 6% 68%  
47 14% 62% Median
48 12% 48%  
49 12% 37%  
50 8% 25%  
51 8% 17%  
52 3% 9%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.2% 3%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 2% 97%  
38 2% 96%  
39 5% 93%  
40 6% 88%  
41 11% 82%  
42 27% 71% Median
43 32% 44%  
44 3% 12%  
45 3% 9%  
46 2% 7%  
47 2% 5%  
48 1.1% 3%  
49 2% 2% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.5%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 3% 97%  
32 4% 94%  
33 8% 90%  
34 11% 82%  
35 22% 71% Median
36 23% 48%  
37 14% 25%  
38 7% 11%  
39 1.4% 5%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.9%  
12 3% 98.9%  
13 7% 96%  
14 9% 90%  
15 3% 81%  
16 16% 78%  
17 37% 62% Median
18 22% 25%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.7%  
21 0.2% 0.5%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 11% 98% Last Result
12 14% 87%  
13 20% 73%  
14 30% 53% Median
15 11% 23%  
16 10% 13%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 33% 99.5%  
3 0.6% 67%  
4 0% 66%  
5 0% 66%  
6 0.1% 66%  
7 11% 66%  
8 35% 55% Median
9 14% 20%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 38% 95%  
3 11% 57% Median
4 13% 46%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0.1% 33%  
7 10% 33%  
8 16% 23%  
9 5% 7%  
10 1.3% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 28% 98.8%  
2 19% 70%  
3 35% 51% Median
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.2% 17%  
7 8% 16%  
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 36% 59% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 103 100% 98–108 97–109 96–110 94–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 102 100% 96–106 95–107 94–108 92–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 93–103 92–104 90–105 89–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 99.9% 93–101 91–102 89–102 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.9% 90–100 89–101 88–101 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 91 97% 86–95 85–96 84–97 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 55% 80–89 78–91 77–92 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 81 11% 76–85 75–86 74–87 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 78 0.5% 73–81 72–82 71–83 69–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 71 0.1% 68–76 67–78 66–80 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 67 0% 63–73 62–74 61–75 59–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 60–70 59–71 58–72 55–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 64 0% 59–69 58–70 57–71 54–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–59 50–60 50–61 48–63
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 47–56 46–57 45–59 43–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 39 0% 35–44 34–45 33–46 32–48

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 99.6%  
95 0.6% 99.0%  
96 2% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 5% 94%  
99 7% 89%  
100 18% 83%  
101 6% 64%  
102 7% 58%  
103 9% 51% Median
104 8% 42%  
105 9% 34%  
106 7% 24%  
107 5% 18% Last Result
108 4% 13%  
109 4% 9%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.3% 2%  
112 0.6% 0.9%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.7% 99.6%  
93 0.8% 98.9%  
94 1.0% 98%  
95 5% 97%  
96 5% 92%  
97 6% 88%  
98 5% 82%  
99 8% 77%  
100 8% 69%  
101 8% 61%  
102 11% 53% Median
103 11% 43%  
104 17% 32%  
105 5% 15%  
106 4% 10%  
107 3% 6%  
108 1.5% 3%  
109 0.7% 1.2%  
110 0.3% 0.5%  
111 0.2% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.2% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
89 1.5% 99.6%  
90 0.6% 98%  
91 1.4% 97%  
92 4% 96%  
93 2% 92%  
94 7% 90%  
95 6% 83%  
96 9% 76%  
97 9% 67% Median
98 6% 58%  
99 22% 52%  
100 7% 30%  
101 5% 23%  
102 6% 18%  
103 7% 13%  
104 3% 6%  
105 1.4% 3%  
106 1.2% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.9%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.9% 99.8%  
88 0.7% 98.9%  
89 1.0% 98%  
90 1.2% 97%  
91 3% 96%  
92 3% 93%  
93 6% 90%  
94 6% 84%  
95 12% 78%  
96 6% 66%  
97 11% 60%  
98 11% 48%  
99 9% 38% Median
100 17% 29%  
101 6% 12%  
102 3% 5%  
103 1.2% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.2%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.4% 99.7%  
87 2% 99.3%  
88 2% 98%  
89 4% 96%  
90 3% 91%  
91 5% 88%  
92 5% 84%  
93 9% 78%  
94 13% 70% Median
95 7% 56%  
96 16% 50%  
97 6% 34%  
98 11% 27%  
99 5% 16%  
100 3% 12%  
101 6% 9%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.6% 1.4%  
104 0.6% 0.8%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 99.2%  
84 2% 98.7%  
85 4% 97% Majority
86 3% 93%  
87 7% 90%  
88 4% 83%  
89 10% 78%  
90 9% 68%  
91 13% 59% Median
92 20% 46%  
93 10% 26%  
94 3% 16%  
95 6% 13%  
96 3% 7%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.8% 1.0%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 1.2% 99.2%  
77 1.2% 98% Last Result
78 3% 97%  
79 2% 94%  
80 4% 91%  
81 10% 88%  
82 6% 78%  
83 9% 72% Median
84 7% 62%  
85 20% 55% Majority
86 9% 36%  
87 6% 27%  
88 5% 21%  
89 7% 16%  
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 1.0% 99.6%  
73 1.0% 98.6%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 5% 91% Last Result
77 5% 86%  
78 10% 81%  
79 11% 72%  
80 10% 60% Median
81 20% 50%  
82 6% 30%  
83 6% 24%  
84 7% 18%  
85 4% 11% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.3%  
71 2% 98.8%  
72 4% 97%  
73 6% 93%  
74 3% 87%  
75 5% 84%  
76 13% 79%  
77 13% 65% Median
78 21% 53%  
79 13% 32%  
80 8% 19%  
81 4% 11%  
82 2% 7%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 1.4% 99.1%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 7% 93%  
69 17% 86%  
70 9% 69%  
71 11% 60% Median
72 10% 49%  
73 6% 39%  
74 11% 33%  
75 6% 22%  
76 6% 15%  
77 2% 9%  
78 3% 7%  
79 1.1% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.0%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 0.7% 99.2%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 97%  
63 5% 94%  
64 5% 89%  
65 18% 84%  
66 11% 66%  
67 11% 55%  
68 8% 44% Median
69 8% 37%  
70 7% 28%  
71 4% 22%  
72 5% 17%  
73 5% 12%  
74 5% 7%  
75 0.8% 3%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.0%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.4%  
57 1.0% 98.7%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 5% 93%  
61 4% 88%  
62 17% 84%  
63 7% 67%  
64 13% 60%  
65 9% 46% Median
66 6% 37%  
67 7% 31%  
68 9% 24%  
69 4% 14%  
70 3% 10%  
71 5% 8%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.5% 1.2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 4% 94%  
60 8% 90%  
61 4% 82%  
62 17% 77%  
63 9% 60%  
64 13% 52% Median
65 7% 39%  
66 7% 32%  
67 9% 24%  
68 5% 15%  
69 5% 10%  
70 3% 5%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.9% 2% Last Result
73 0.4% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.6%  
49 1.3% 99.0%  
50 3% 98%  
51 4% 95%  
52 3% 91%  
53 7% 88%  
54 12% 81%  
55 16% 69%  
56 13% 53% Median
57 21% 40%  
58 5% 18%  
59 8% 14%  
60 2% 6% Last Result
61 1.2% 4%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.9% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.5%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 5% 97%  
47 3% 93%  
48 17% 89%  
49 11% 72%  
50 7% 61%  
51 12% 55% Median
52 10% 43%  
53 6% 33%  
54 7% 27%  
55 7% 20%  
56 5% 13%  
57 2% 7%  
58 2% 5%  
59 0.7% 3%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
62 0.3% 0.8%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 5% 97%  
35 4% 92% Last Result
36 7% 88%  
37 8% 81%  
38 22% 73%  
39 16% 51% Median
40 9% 36%  
41 6% 27%  
42 6% 21%  
43 4% 15%  
44 5% 11%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.8% 1.4%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations