Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 2–3 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.0–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.3–23.5% 18.9–24.0% 18.1–24.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–54 45–55 43–56 42–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 36–41 36–43 34–44 32–45
Senterpartiet 19 36 34–40 33–41 33–42 31–43
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 10–17 9–18
Fremskrittspartiet 27 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 8–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 3–11 2–11 2–13
Venstre 8 6 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.5%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 1.4% 97%  
45 5% 95% Last Result
46 4% 90%  
47 6% 86%  
48 12% 80%  
49 8% 68%  
50 17% 60% Median
51 12% 43%  
52 12% 31%  
53 7% 19%  
54 5% 12%  
55 2% 7%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.6% 1.0%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.7%  
33 0.8% 99.4%  
34 2% 98.6%  
35 2% 97%  
36 7% 95%  
37 11% 88%  
38 24% 77%  
39 18% 53% Median
40 15% 35%  
41 10% 20%  
42 5% 10%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.3% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 4% 98%  
34 8% 93%  
35 13% 86%  
36 39% 73% Median
37 10% 34%  
38 10% 24%  
39 3% 14%  
40 4% 10%  
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.3% 1.5%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.9%  
10 3% 98.8%  
11 15% 96% Last Result
12 15% 81%  
13 22% 66% Median
14 17% 43%  
15 18% 27%  
16 4% 8%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 3% 99.8%  
9 7% 97%  
10 18% 90%  
11 31% 72% Median
12 18% 41%  
13 15% 23%  
14 6% 8%  
15 1.5% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 4% 100%  
3 3% 96%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.1% 93%  
7 10% 93%  
8 33% 83% Median
9 28% 50%  
10 14% 22%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 47% 99.9%  
3 2% 53%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 2% 51% Median
7 21% 49%  
8 21% 28% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 49% 95% Median
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 2% 45%  
7 28% 44%  
8 11% 15%  
9 3% 4%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 47% 89% Median
2 19% 42%  
3 22% 23%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.2% 2%  
7 1.1% 1.4%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 99–108 98–111 97–112 95–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 102 100% 97–106 96–107 94–109 93–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 98 100% 93–103 92–105 91–105 90–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 100% 92–101 91–102 90–104 89–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 99.5% 88–97 87–99 86–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 91% 85–92 84–94 82–95 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 54% 81–89 80–91 79–92 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 1.1% 73–81 72–82 72–83 69–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 76 0.5% 72–80 70–82 69–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.2% 72–79 71–80 70–81 68–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 67 0% 63–72 62–73 60–75 59–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 62–70 60–72 58–74 57–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 57–66 55–66 54–67 53–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 57 0% 52–61 50–62 49–63 47–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 48–56 47–57 46–58 45–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 43 0% 38–47 37–49 36–50 35–53

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.5% 99.6%  
96 1.2% 99.1%  
97 2% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 6% 94%  
100 4% 88%  
101 4% 84%  
102 8% 80%  
103 15% 72%  
104 6% 57% Median
105 15% 51%  
106 14% 36%  
107 7% 22% Last Result
108 5% 15%  
109 3% 10%  
110 2% 7%  
111 3% 5%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.3% 1.1%  
114 0.4% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.4% 99.9%  
93 2% 99.5%  
94 1.1% 98%  
95 2% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 7% 93%  
98 3% 86% Median
99 11% 83%  
100 15% 72%  
101 6% 56%  
102 18% 50%  
103 11% 32%  
104 5% 21%  
105 6% 16%  
106 4% 10%  
107 2% 6%  
108 2% 5%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.8% 1.2%  
111 0.2% 0.5%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100% Last Result
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 3% 99.4%  
92 2% 97%  
93 5% 95%  
94 6% 90%  
95 4% 84%  
96 12% 80%  
97 9% 68% Median
98 10% 59%  
99 9% 49%  
100 8% 40%  
101 11% 32%  
102 9% 21%  
103 5% 12%  
104 2% 7%  
105 3% 5%  
106 0.8% 2%  
107 0.7% 2%  
108 0.6% 0.9%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.8% 99.6%  
90 2% 98.8%  
91 2% 97%  
92 7% 94%  
93 6% 88%  
94 5% 82%  
95 14% 76%  
96 8% 62% Median
97 9% 54%  
98 14% 45%  
99 6% 31%  
100 10% 24%  
101 6% 14%  
102 4% 8%  
103 1.5% 4%  
104 1.1% 3%  
105 0.4% 2%  
106 0.6% 1.1%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 2% 99.5% Majority
86 1.1% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 5% 95%  
89 6% 90%  
90 4% 84% Median
91 10% 80%  
92 17% 70%  
93 11% 53%  
94 16% 42%  
95 7% 26%  
96 4% 19%  
97 6% 15%  
98 4% 10%  
99 2% 6%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100% Last Result
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.7%  
82 2% 99.2%  
83 2% 97%  
84 5% 95%  
85 9% 91% Majority
86 8% 82%  
87 17% 74%  
88 7% 57% Median
89 9% 50%  
90 16% 41%  
91 9% 25%  
92 6% 16%  
93 4% 10%  
94 3% 6%  
95 0.8% 3%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.1%  
98 0.4% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
78 0.9% 99.4%  
79 1.3% 98%  
80 4% 97%  
81 5% 94%  
82 8% 89%  
83 15% 81%  
84 12% 66% Median
85 10% 54% Majority
86 10% 44%  
87 9% 34%  
88 10% 25%  
89 5% 15%  
90 4% 10%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.1%  
95 0.4% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 1.2% 99.0%  
72 4% 98%  
73 5% 94%  
74 8% 89%  
75 14% 81%  
76 19% 67% Last Result, Median
77 10% 47%  
78 9% 37%  
79 8% 28%  
80 9% 20%  
81 4% 11%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.1% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 1.0% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 4% 94%  
72 6% 90%  
73 4% 84%  
74 6% 81%  
75 16% 74%  
76 11% 58% Median
77 16% 47%  
78 10% 30%  
79 4% 20%  
80 6% 16%  
81 5% 10%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.1% 3%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.5% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 4% 97%  
72 6% 93%  
73 12% 88%  
74 18% 76%  
75 16% 58% Median
76 14% 42%  
77 11% 28%  
78 7% 18%  
79 5% 11%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.8% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 95%  
63 4% 94%  
64 6% 90%  
65 5% 84%  
66 11% 79%  
67 18% 68%  
68 6% 50% Median
69 15% 44%  
70 11% 28%  
71 3% 17%  
72 7% 14%  
73 2% 7%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 1.1% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 98%  
59 1.5% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 5% 91%  
63 5% 86%  
64 8% 82%  
65 14% 74%  
66 18% 60%  
67 7% 42% Median
68 11% 35%  
69 11% 24%  
70 4% 13%  
71 3% 9%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.3% 4%  
74 1.0% 3%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 2% 98.9%  
55 2% 97%  
56 3% 95%  
57 7% 92%  
58 5% 85%  
59 12% 81%  
60 10% 68%  
61 8% 58% Median
62 11% 50%  
63 13% 39%  
64 12% 26%  
65 4% 15%  
66 5% 10%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.5%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 4% 95%  
52 3% 91%  
53 8% 88%  
54 13% 80%  
55 7% 67%  
56 10% 60%  
57 11% 50% Median
58 6% 39%  
59 14% 32%  
60 5% 19%  
61 6% 13% Last Result
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.2% 99.7%  
45 1.2% 99.5%  
46 1.1% 98%  
47 2% 97%  
48 6% 95%  
49 10% 89%  
50 7% 80%  
51 17% 73%  
52 12% 56% Median
53 11% 44%  
54 13% 33%  
55 9% 20%  
56 6% 11%  
57 3% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
36 2% 99.4%  
37 3% 97%  
38 6% 94%  
39 7% 88%  
40 11% 81%  
41 8% 70%  
42 8% 62%  
43 4% 54% Median
44 13% 50%  
45 12% 36%  
46 8% 24%  
47 7% 16%  
48 3% 9%  
49 3% 6%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.5%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations