Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 1–8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.1% 23.4–27.0% 22.9–27.5% 22.5–27.9% 21.7–28.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.1% 17.5–20.8% 17.1–21.3% 16.7–21.7% 16.0–22.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.5–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.4–9.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Rødt 2.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 42–50 41–51 40–52 39–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–49 41–49 41–51 38–53
Senterpartiet 19 36 34–38 33–39 32–40 30–42
Fremskrittspartiet 27 15 13–17 12–18 12–19 11–19
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 3% 97%  
42 8% 94%  
43 13% 87%  
44 10% 74%  
45 11% 63% Last Result
46 9% 52% Median
47 11% 44%  
48 9% 32%  
49 8% 24%  
50 7% 15%  
51 4% 8%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.8%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.5%  
40 1.2% 98.8%  
41 9% 98%  
42 7% 88%  
43 9% 81%  
44 12% 72%  
45 17% 60% Median
46 9% 42%  
47 11% 33%  
48 11% 22%  
49 6% 11% Last Result
50 1.4% 5%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.6% 99.6%  
31 1.1% 99.1%  
32 1.3% 98%  
33 5% 97%  
34 8% 92%  
35 31% 84%  
36 21% 53% Median
37 15% 32%  
38 8% 17%  
39 5% 10%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 0.9% 99.7%  
12 6% 98.8%  
13 12% 93%  
14 19% 81%  
15 23% 63% Median
16 18% 40%  
17 13% 22%  
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 8% 98% Last Result
12 16% 90%  
13 22% 75%  
14 22% 53% Median
15 17% 31%  
16 9% 13%  
17 3% 4%  
18 1.0% 1.4%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 28% 97%  
3 9% 69%  
4 1.0% 60%  
5 0% 59%  
6 0% 59%  
7 11% 59% Median
8 24% 48%  
9 18% 24%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.3% 1.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 75% 97% Median
3 6% 22%  
4 0.9% 16%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 7% 15%  
8 7% 8% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 33% 98%  
2 12% 65%  
3 42% 53% Median
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.1% 11%  
7 5% 11%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 42% 100% Last Result
2 54% 58% Median
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0.1% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 103 100% 99–108 97–109 96–110 94–112
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 98–107 97–109 96–110 94–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 102 100% 98–107 96–108 95–109 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 101 100% 96–105 94–106 93–107 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 96 100% 92–101 91–102 90–104 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 95 99.9% 90–99 90–100 89–102 87–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 90 92% 85–94 83–96 82–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 83 38% 79–88 78–89 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 81 12% 77–85 76–87 76–88 73–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 72 0% 68–77 67–78 65–79 64–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 67 0% 62–71 61–73 60–74 58–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 59–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 61 0% 56–66 55–67 54–68 53–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 52–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 47–56 46–58 45–59 44–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 41 0% 38–46 37–48 36–49 34–51

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 1.5% 99.2%  
96 1.4% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 3% 94%  
99 5% 91%  
100 8% 87%  
101 10% 79%  
102 13% 69%  
103 8% 56%  
104 12% 48%  
105 11% 36% Median
106 8% 25%  
107 6% 17%  
108 5% 10%  
109 3% 6%  
110 1.4% 3%  
111 0.7% 2%  
112 0.6% 0.8%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 0.4% 99.6%  
95 1.2% 99.2%  
96 3% 98%  
97 3% 95%  
98 6% 92%  
99 9% 86%  
100 9% 78%  
101 9% 69%  
102 11% 60% Median
103 7% 50%  
104 15% 42%  
105 6% 27%  
106 8% 22%  
107 6% 13% Last Result
108 2% 8%  
109 3% 6%  
110 1.2% 3%  
111 2% 2%  
112 0.3% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.9% 99.5%  
95 3% 98.6%  
96 2% 96%  
97 3% 94%  
98 5% 91%  
99 7% 86%  
100 11% 79%  
101 10% 68%  
102 10% 59%  
103 10% 49%  
104 7% 38% Median
105 12% 31%  
106 7% 19%  
107 4% 12%  
108 4% 7%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.9% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.7% 99.5%  
93 2% 98.8%  
94 3% 97%  
95 2% 95%  
96 5% 92%  
97 5% 87%  
98 10% 82%  
99 12% 72%  
100 9% 60%  
101 12% 51%  
102 6% 39% Median
103 13% 33%  
104 8% 20%  
105 4% 12%  
106 5% 8%  
107 2% 4%  
108 0.8% 2%  
109 0.7% 1.0%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.6% 99.4%  
90 2% 98.8%  
91 5% 96%  
92 4% 91%  
93 8% 87%  
94 5% 80%  
95 13% 74%  
96 12% 61%  
97 9% 50% Median
98 12% 40%  
99 12% 28%  
100 4% 17%  
101 6% 13%  
102 2% 7%  
103 2% 4%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.7% 1.2%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.5% 99.5%  
88 0.9% 99.0%  
89 3% 98%  
90 6% 95%  
91 7% 89%  
92 8% 82%  
93 9% 74%  
94 14% 65%  
95 9% 50% Median
96 10% 41%  
97 13% 31%  
98 5% 17%  
99 4% 12%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 5%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.8% 1.2%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.8% 99.6%  
81 0.7% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.5% 96%  
84 3% 95%  
85 7% 92% Majority
86 3% 85%  
87 13% 83%  
88 10% 70%  
89 8% 59%  
90 9% 51%  
91 8% 42% Median
92 14% 33%  
93 8% 19%  
94 3% 11%  
95 2% 8%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.5% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
77 2% 98.8%  
78 2% 97%  
79 6% 95%  
80 5% 89%  
81 7% 84%  
82 7% 77%  
83 20% 69%  
84 11% 49% Median
85 12% 38% Majority
86 8% 26%  
87 5% 18%  
88 7% 13%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.3% 4%  
91 1.3% 3%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.9% 99.4%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 4% 98%  
77 5% 94%  
78 10% 88%  
79 10% 79%  
80 15% 69%  
81 7% 53% Median
82 15% 46%  
83 13% 31%  
84 7% 19%  
85 4% 12% Majority
86 1.4% 8%  
87 4% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 6% 93%  
69 4% 87%  
70 12% 83%  
71 12% 71%  
72 9% 59%  
73 12% 50% Median
74 13% 38%  
75 5% 25%  
76 8% 20%  
77 4% 13%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.6% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.7%  
59 1.0% 99.2%  
60 2% 98%  
61 4% 97%  
62 4% 92%  
63 7% 88%  
64 12% 81%  
65 7% 68%  
66 10% 61% Median
67 10% 51%  
68 10% 41%  
69 11% 31%  
70 7% 21%  
71 5% 14%  
72 3% 9%  
73 2% 5%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.9% 1.4%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.3%  
57 1.2% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 7% 90%  
61 9% 83%  
62 9% 75%  
63 11% 66% Median
64 12% 55%  
65 10% 43%  
66 10% 33%  
67 5% 23%  
68 8% 18%  
69 3% 9%  
70 2% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 1.0% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 1.4% 98.9%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 95%  
57 6% 90%  
58 9% 84%  
59 10% 75%  
60 10% 65%  
61 9% 54% Median
62 11% 46%  
63 9% 35%  
64 9% 26%  
65 4% 17%  
66 8% 13%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 5% 97%  
55 7% 92%  
56 7% 85%  
57 12% 77%  
58 14% 66%  
59 11% 52% Median
60 12% 41% Last Result
61 10% 29%  
62 8% 19%  
63 5% 11%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.3% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.7%  
45 3% 98.6%  
46 4% 95%  
47 4% 91%  
48 7% 87%  
49 11% 81%  
50 9% 70%  
51 14% 61% Median
52 10% 47%  
53 6% 36%  
54 10% 30%  
55 5% 20%  
56 5% 15%  
57 4% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.4% 1.3%  
61 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.5%  
35 0.5% 99.1% Last Result
36 2% 98.6%  
37 4% 97%  
38 12% 93%  
39 6% 81%  
40 23% 75%  
41 10% 52% Median
42 10% 42%  
43 9% 32%  
44 4% 23%  
45 5% 19%  
46 6% 14%  
47 2% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.5% 2%  
51 0.7% 1.1%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations