Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 9–14 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.9% 25.1–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.2–29.7% 23.4–30.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.5% 16.1–20.9% 15.4–21.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–53 43–54 43–55 41–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 36–42 35–43 34–43 32–45
Senterpartiet 19 35 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–41
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–18 12–19 12–19 10–21
Fremskrittspartiet 27 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 3–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.5%  
43 3% 98%  
44 11% 95%  
45 7% 84% Last Result
46 12% 77%  
47 5% 65%  
48 13% 60% Median
49 15% 47%  
50 9% 32%  
51 6% 23%  
52 5% 17%  
53 5% 12%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 2%  
57 0.4% 1.0%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.8%  
33 0.7% 98.8%  
34 2% 98%  
35 5% 96%  
36 10% 91%  
37 9% 81%  
38 13% 72%  
39 7% 59%  
40 14% 52% Median
41 19% 38%  
42 9% 19%  
43 8% 10%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.6% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.1%  
30 2% 97%  
31 9% 95%  
32 8% 85%  
33 6% 78%  
34 12% 71%  
35 22% 60% Median
36 25% 38%  
37 7% 13%  
38 2% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.4%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
12 7% 98.6%  
13 8% 91%  
14 20% 83%  
15 18% 64% Median
16 13% 46%  
17 16% 33%  
18 10% 17%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.1%  
11 9% 95%  
12 21% 86%  
13 16% 66% Median
14 26% 49%  
15 12% 23%  
16 7% 11%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 7% 99.8%  
3 3% 92%  
4 0.3% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0.7% 89%  
7 12% 88%  
8 30% 76% Median
9 26% 46%  
10 15% 20%  
11 5% 6%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 51% 96% Median
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 4% 45%  
7 18% 41%  
8 16% 23%  
9 6% 7%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 22% 98.8%  
2 11% 77%  
3 52% 66% Median
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 1.3% 14%  
7 8% 13%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.8% 1.0%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 13% 97%  
2 82% 85% Median
3 0.7% 3%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.2% 2%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 97–107 96–108 95–109 94–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 101 100% 97–106 95–108 93–109 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 100 100% 95–105 93–106 92–107 89–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 99.9% 92–102 91–103 89–104 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 99.2% 89–99 87–100 86–101 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 90% 84–93 84–95 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 52% 80–89 78–91 76–92 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 2% 72–81 70–83 69–84 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 74 0.3% 70–80 69–81 68–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 69–78 68–78 67–80 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 66 0% 62–72 61–73 60–74 58–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 59–69 58–70 57–71 56–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 61 0% 57–67 56–68 56–69 54–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 49–58 48–59 47–61 45–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 50–59 49–60 48–60 46–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 40 0% 35–44 34–45 34–46 32–47

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 1.3% 99.6%  
95 3% 98%  
96 4% 95%  
97 6% 91%  
98 9% 85%  
99 16% 76%  
100 14% 59%  
101 11% 45% Median
102 5% 34%  
103 4% 29%  
104 5% 25%  
105 6% 21%  
106 5% 15%  
107 4% 11% Last Result
108 2% 6%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.9% 2%  
111 0.3% 1.4%  
112 0.4% 1.1%  
113 0.2% 0.8%  
114 0.5% 0.5%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 0.7% 99.6%  
92 0.7% 98.9%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 1.2% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 6% 91%  
98 8% 85%  
99 8% 77%  
100 8% 70% Median
101 11% 61%  
102 7% 50%  
103 8% 42%  
104 11% 34%  
105 7% 23%  
106 7% 16%  
107 3% 9%  
108 4% 7%  
109 1.4% 3%  
110 0.9% 1.3%  
111 0.3% 0.4%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 0.6% 99.5%  
91 0.4% 98.8%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 3% 97%  
94 3% 94%  
95 6% 91%  
96 5% 85%  
97 7% 80%  
98 8% 74%  
99 10% 65%  
100 7% 56%  
101 9% 49% Median
102 12% 40%  
103 7% 29%  
104 9% 22%  
105 6% 13%  
106 3% 7%  
107 1.3% 4%  
108 1.4% 2%  
109 0.9% 1.1%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.9% 99.5%  
88 0.7% 98.6%  
89 1.4% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 95%  
92 7% 93%  
93 5% 86%  
94 7% 82%  
95 7% 74%  
96 9% 68%  
97 12% 58%  
98 8% 46% Median
99 11% 39%  
100 8% 28%  
101 8% 19%  
102 5% 11%  
103 3% 6%  
104 1.3% 3%  
105 1.1% 1.5%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.4% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.5%  
85 0.9% 99.2% Majority
86 1.2% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 4% 95%  
89 6% 91%  
90 6% 85%  
91 8% 79%  
92 11% 70% Median
93 12% 59%  
94 7% 47%  
95 9% 40%  
96 8% 31%  
97 6% 24%  
98 6% 17%  
99 4% 11%  
100 4% 7%  
101 1.2% 3%  
102 0.8% 1.4%  
103 0.6% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.4% 99.8%  
81 1.1% 99.5%  
82 1.2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 5% 95%  
85 8% 90% Majority
86 8% 82%  
87 7% 74%  
88 12% 67%  
89 8% 55%  
90 8% 47% Median
91 16% 38%  
92 6% 23%  
93 8% 17%  
94 2% 9%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 1.1% 1.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 99.2%  
76 1.3% 98.6%  
77 1.4% 97% Last Result
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 93%  
80 3% 90%  
81 6% 87%  
82 9% 81%  
83 12% 72%  
84 8% 60%  
85 9% 52% Majority
86 5% 42% Median
87 13% 37%  
88 8% 24%  
89 7% 16%  
90 3% 9%  
91 3% 6%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.3%  
95 0.7% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 1.2% 99.6%  
69 1.2% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 5% 91%  
73 6% 87%  
74 9% 80%  
75 10% 72%  
76 10% 62% Last Result
77 11% 52%  
78 9% 40% Median
79 6% 31%  
80 12% 26%  
81 5% 14%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.3% 4%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.7%  
67 0.9% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 97%  
70 6% 92%  
71 8% 86%  
72 11% 78%  
73 9% 68%  
74 10% 58% Median
75 7% 48%  
76 11% 41%  
77 11% 31%  
78 5% 20%  
79 5% 15%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.3%  
67 3% 98.7%  
68 2% 96% Last Result
69 4% 94%  
70 5% 90%  
71 8% 84%  
72 11% 76%  
73 14% 65%  
74 10% 51%  
75 12% 40% Median
76 5% 28%  
77 12% 23%  
78 6% 10%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.9% 1.3%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.5%  
60 2% 98%  
61 4% 97%  
62 4% 92%  
63 9% 88%  
64 8% 79%  
65 15% 71%  
66 9% 56% Median
67 8% 47%  
68 10% 39%  
69 8% 29%  
70 7% 21%  
71 4% 14%  
72 5% 10%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.3% 4%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 1.0%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.7%  
57 2% 98.9%  
58 6% 97%  
59 5% 91%  
60 9% 86%  
61 6% 77%  
62 15% 71%  
63 13% 57% Median
64 5% 44%  
65 9% 38%  
66 8% 29%  
67 5% 21%  
68 4% 16%  
69 5% 12%  
70 2% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.3% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.9%  
75 0.6% 0.6%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 1.4% 99.1%  
56 6% 98%  
57 5% 92%  
58 10% 87%  
59 6% 77%  
60 15% 71%  
61 12% 56% Median
62 7% 44%  
63 8% 37%  
64 8% 29%  
65 6% 22%  
66 4% 16%  
67 5% 12%  
68 2% 7%  
69 3% 5%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.2%  
72 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
73 0.6% 0.7%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 2% 98%  
48 1.5% 96%  
49 12% 94%  
50 5% 83%  
51 11% 77%  
52 7% 66%  
53 14% 59% Median
54 11% 45%  
55 9% 34%  
56 7% 25%  
57 6% 17%  
58 5% 12%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.0% 3% Last Result
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.6% 99.4%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 4% 96%  
50 8% 92%  
51 5% 84%  
52 8% 79%  
53 9% 71%  
54 9% 63%  
55 9% 54% Median
56 12% 45%  
57 10% 33%  
58 10% 23%  
59 6% 13%  
60 4% 6% Last Result
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.7%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.6%  
33 1.2% 99.0%  
34 6% 98%  
35 2% 92% Last Result
36 8% 90%  
37 9% 82%  
38 8% 73%  
39 14% 65%  
40 16% 51% Median
41 15% 35%  
42 4% 20%  
43 4% 16%  
44 5% 12%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations