Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 15–21 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 25.0% | 27.6% | 25.8–29.5% | 25.3–30.0% | 24.8–30.5% | 24.0–31.4% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 27.4% | 20.6% | 19.0–22.4% | 18.5–22.8% | 18.2–23.3% | 17.4–24.1% |
| Senterpartiet | 10.3% | 18.6% | 17.1–20.3% | 16.7–20.8% | 16.3–21.2% | 15.6–22.1% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 15.2% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.3–10.9% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.4% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Rødt | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.5% |
| Venstre | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 45 | 49 | 45–53 | 43–54 | 43–55 | 41–57 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 49 | 38 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–42 | 30–43 |
| Senterpartiet | 19 | 36 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 28–40 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 27 | 14 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 | 10–19 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 11 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 1 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 3–12 | 2–13 |
| Rødt | 1 | 8 | 2–10 | 2–11 | 2–11 | 2–12 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 8 | 3 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 1–9 |
| Venstre | 8 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 2% | 95% | |
| 45 | 8% | 93% | Last Result |
| 46 | 6% | 85% | |
| 47 | 15% | 79% | |
| 48 | 9% | 64% | |
| 49 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 12% | 45% | |
| 51 | 10% | 33% | |
| 52 | 10% | 24% | |
| 53 | 7% | 14% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 33 | 3% | 97% | |
| 34 | 4% | 93% | |
| 35 | 9% | 89% | |
| 36 | 9% | 80% | |
| 37 | 18% | 71% | |
| 38 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 39 | 12% | 31% | |
| 40 | 6% | 19% | |
| 41 | 7% | 13% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 3% | 97% | |
| 32 | 6% | 94% | |
| 33 | 5% | 88% | |
| 34 | 8% | 83% | |
| 35 | 13% | 75% | |
| 36 | 44% | 63% | Median |
| 37 | 11% | 18% | |
| 38 | 4% | 7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 15% | 95% | |
| 13 | 10% | 80% | |
| 14 | 30% | 71% | Median |
| 15 | 9% | 41% | |
| 16 | 19% | 31% | |
| 17 | 5% | 12% | |
| 18 | 4% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 17% | 95% | |
| 10 | 30% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 48% | Last Result |
| 12 | 12% | 20% | |
| 13 | 5% | 8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 7 | 5% | 97% | |
| 8 | 32% | 92% | |
| 9 | 24% | 60% | Median |
| 10 | 24% | 36% | |
| 11 | 8% | 12% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 86% | |
| 4 | 0% | 86% | |
| 5 | 0% | 86% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 7 | 17% | 86% | |
| 8 | 30% | 68% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 38% | |
| 10 | 11% | 17% | |
| 11 | 6% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 16% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 8% | 84% | |
| 3 | 36% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 40% | |
| 5 | 0% | 40% | |
| 6 | 4% | 40% | |
| 7 | 28% | 36% | |
| 8 | 6% | 9% | Last Result |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 45% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 43% | 44% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 107 | 104 | 100% | 99–108 | 98–110 | 97–111 | 95–115 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt | 81 | 100 | 100% | 96–104 | 94–106 | 92–107 | 90–108 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 88 | 97 | 99.9% | 92–101 | 90–102 | 89–104 | 87–106 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 80 | 92 | 98% | 88–97 | 87–98 | 85–99 | 83–101 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt | 80 | 91 | 95% | 87–95 | 85–97 | 84–97 | 81–99 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 77 | 86 | 66% | 81–90 | 80–92 | 78–93 | 76–95 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 79 | 83 | 30% | 80–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–91 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 89 | 78 | 4% | 73–82 | 72–84 | 71–85 | 69–88 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 76 | 77 | 1.4% | 72–81 | 71–83 | 70–84 | 67–85 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 68 | 73 | 0% | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 64–79 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 88 | 69 | 0% | 64–73 | 63–75 | 62–76 | 60–79 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 80 | 65 | 0% | 60–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–75 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 72 | 63 | 0% | 59–68 | 58–69 | 57–71 | 55–73 |
| Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 61 | 55 | 0% | 50–60 | 48–60 | 47–62 | 46–64 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 60 | 48 | 0% | 45–52 | 43–53 | 42–54 | 40–55 |
| Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 35 | 41 | 0% | 37–45 | 35–46 | 34–47 | 32–48 |
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 98 | 4% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 94% | |
| 100 | 4% | 90% | |
| 101 | 7% | 86% | |
| 102 | 9% | 79% | |
| 103 | 12% | 70% | Median |
| 104 | 9% | 58% | |
| 105 | 14% | 49% | |
| 106 | 6% | 35% | |
| 107 | 11% | 29% | Last Result |
| 108 | 9% | 17% | |
| 109 | 3% | 8% | |
| 110 | 2% | 6% | |
| 111 | 2% | 4% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 94 | 4% | 96% | |
| 95 | 2% | 92% | |
| 96 | 4% | 91% | |
| 97 | 13% | 86% | |
| 98 | 7% | 73% | |
| 99 | 7% | 66% | |
| 100 | 20% | 59% | |
| 101 | 7% | 39% | Median |
| 102 | 9% | 31% | |
| 103 | 5% | 22% | |
| 104 | 7% | 16% | |
| 105 | 4% | 10% | |
| 106 | 3% | 6% | |
| 107 | 2% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 89 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 90 | 3% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 94% | |
| 92 | 3% | 92% | |
| 93 | 8% | 88% | |
| 94 | 5% | 81% | |
| 95 | 15% | 76% | |
| 96 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 97 | 14% | 51% | |
| 98 | 7% | 37% | |
| 99 | 9% | 29% | |
| 100 | 7% | 20% | |
| 101 | 6% | 13% | |
| 102 | 3% | 7% | |
| 103 | 2% | 4% | |
| 104 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 86 | 2% | 97% | |
| 87 | 2% | 95% | |
| 88 | 3% | 93% | |
| 89 | 8% | 90% | |
| 90 | 12% | 82% | |
| 91 | 6% | 70% | |
| 92 | 21% | 64% | |
| 93 | 11% | 44% | Median |
| 94 | 10% | 33% | |
| 95 | 9% | 23% | |
| 96 | 4% | 14% | |
| 97 | 3% | 11% | |
| 98 | 4% | 7% | |
| 99 | 2% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 95% | Majority |
| 86 | 3% | 94% | |
| 87 | 3% | 91% | |
| 88 | 7% | 88% | |
| 89 | 14% | 80% | |
| 90 | 10% | 67% | |
| 91 | 12% | 57% | |
| 92 | 16% | 45% | Median |
| 93 | 5% | 28% | |
| 94 | 8% | 23% | |
| 95 | 6% | 15% | |
| 96 | 3% | 8% | |
| 97 | 4% | 6% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 78 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 80 | 4% | 96% | |
| 81 | 3% | 92% | |
| 82 | 6% | 89% | |
| 83 | 9% | 83% | |
| 84 | 9% | 75% | |
| 85 | 9% | 66% | Majority |
| 86 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 87 | 8% | 46% | |
| 88 | 11% | 38% | |
| 89 | 11% | 28% | |
| 90 | 7% | 16% | |
| 91 | 3% | 9% | |
| 92 | 4% | 7% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 2% | 96% | |
| 79 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 80 | 7% | 92% | |
| 81 | 6% | 85% | |
| 82 | 18% | 79% | |
| 83 | 12% | 61% | |
| 84 | 19% | 49% | Median |
| 85 | 7% | 30% | Majority |
| 86 | 8% | 23% | |
| 87 | 7% | 14% | |
| 88 | 3% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 97% | |
| 73 | 3% | 92% | |
| 74 | 7% | 90% | |
| 75 | 8% | 83% | |
| 76 | 5% | 75% | Median |
| 77 | 16% | 70% | |
| 78 | 12% | 54% | |
| 79 | 9% | 42% | |
| 80 | 14% | 32% | |
| 81 | 7% | 19% | |
| 82 | 3% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 8% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 96% | |
| 72 | 7% | 93% | |
| 73 | 4% | 86% | |
| 74 | 5% | 82% | |
| 75 | 8% | 77% | |
| 76 | 14% | 69% | Last Result |
| 77 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 78 | 8% | 45% | |
| 79 | 6% | 37% | |
| 80 | 12% | 31% | |
| 81 | 11% | 20% | |
| 82 | 3% | 9% | |
| 83 | 2% | 6% | |
| 84 | 3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 1.4% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 69 | 3% | 93% | |
| 70 | 7% | 90% | |
| 71 | 13% | 83% | |
| 72 | 9% | 70% | |
| 73 | 22% | 61% | |
| 74 | 16% | 40% | Median |
| 75 | 8% | 23% | |
| 76 | 6% | 15% | |
| 77 | 6% | 10% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 96% | |
| 64 | 4% | 93% | |
| 65 | 7% | 89% | |
| 66 | 6% | 82% | |
| 67 | 9% | 76% | Median |
| 68 | 8% | 67% | |
| 69 | 20% | 60% | |
| 70 | 7% | 39% | |
| 71 | 7% | 33% | |
| 72 | 13% | 26% | |
| 73 | 4% | 13% | |
| 74 | 2% | 9% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 5% | 94% | |
| 61 | 7% | 89% | |
| 62 | 14% | 83% | |
| 63 | 8% | 68% | |
| 64 | 9% | 60% | Median |
| 65 | 11% | 51% | |
| 66 | 12% | 40% | |
| 67 | 8% | 28% | |
| 68 | 6% | 20% | |
| 69 | 5% | 15% | |
| 70 | 4% | 10% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 3% | 96% | |
| 59 | 7% | 93% | |
| 60 | 5% | 86% | |
| 61 | 15% | 82% | |
| 62 | 9% | 67% | |
| 63 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 64 | 10% | 45% | |
| 65 | 10% | 36% | |
| 66 | 8% | 25% | |
| 67 | 4% | 18% | |
| 68 | 6% | 13% | |
| 69 | 3% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 5% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 4% | 94% | |
| 50 | 5% | 91% | |
| 51 | 9% | 86% | |
| 52 | 7% | 77% | |
| 53 | 13% | 71% | Median |
| 54 | 6% | 57% | |
| 55 | 14% | 51% | |
| 56 | 6% | 37% | |
| 57 | 8% | 31% | |
| 58 | 5% | 23% | |
| 59 | 4% | 18% | |
| 60 | 9% | 13% | |
| 61 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 62 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 3% | 95% | |
| 45 | 6% | 91% | |
| 46 | 14% | 86% | |
| 47 | 17% | 71% | |
| 48 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 49 | 8% | 40% | |
| 50 | 15% | 32% | |
| 51 | 5% | 17% | |
| 52 | 4% | 11% | |
| 53 | 4% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 36 | 4% | 95% | |
| 37 | 4% | 91% | |
| 38 | 12% | 87% | |
| 39 | 12% | 75% | |
| 40 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 41 | 13% | 54% | |
| 42 | 6% | 41% | |
| 43 | 6% | 35% | |
| 44 | 13% | 29% | |
| 45 | 10% | 16% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 15–21 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 961
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%