Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 22–24 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 23.0% 21.2–25.1% 20.6–25.7% 20.2–26.2% 19.3–27.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.3% 18.5–22.2% 18.0–22.8% 17.5–23.3% 16.7–24.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.7% 16.1–19.6% 15.6–20.2% 15.2–20.6% 14.4–21.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.8% 11.4–14.5% 11.0–15.0% 10.6–15.4% 10.0–16.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.8% 6.7–9.2% 6.4–9.6% 6.1–10.0% 5.6–10.7%
Venstre 4.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.4% 3.0–7.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.4%
Rødt 2.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.5–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 41 37–45 36–47 35–48 33–50
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 34–41 33–42 31–43 29–45
Senterpartiet 19 33 28–36 27–38 27–39 26–42
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–27 18–28 18–29 17–30
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–17 11–17 10–18 9–19
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–10 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.4%  
35 2% 98%  
36 5% 97%  
37 6% 92%  
38 4% 86%  
39 9% 82%  
40 16% 73%  
41 12% 56% Median
42 12% 44%  
43 11% 32%  
44 4% 21%  
45 9% 17% Last Result
46 2% 8%  
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.6% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 1.2% 99.4%  
31 2% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 3% 95%  
34 7% 93%  
35 6% 85%  
36 7% 80%  
37 12% 73%  
38 9% 61%  
39 21% 52% Median
40 9% 31%  
41 11% 21%  
42 6% 10%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 4% 98%  
28 7% 94%  
29 5% 87%  
30 8% 83%  
31 10% 75%  
32 11% 65%  
33 11% 53% Median
34 19% 42%  
35 10% 23%  
36 4% 13%  
37 3% 9%  
38 3% 6%  
39 1.2% 3%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.7%  
42 0.3% 0.6%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 1.2% 99.7%  
18 4% 98%  
19 4% 95%  
20 5% 91%  
21 12% 86%  
22 18% 73%  
23 13% 55% Median
24 14% 42%  
25 7% 28%  
26 9% 21%  
27 6% 12% Last Result
28 3% 6%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.9%  
10 3% 98.7%  
11 8% 95% Last Result
12 13% 88%  
13 15% 75%  
14 21% 60% Median
15 13% 39%  
16 15% 26%  
17 6% 11%  
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 12% 100%  
3 5% 88%  
4 0.3% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0.7% 83%  
7 10% 82%  
8 32% 72% Last Result, Median
9 16% 40%  
10 18% 25%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 44% 89% Median
3 5% 45%  
4 0.6% 41%  
5 0% 40%  
6 2% 40%  
7 12% 38%  
8 17% 26%  
9 6% 9%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 35% 98%  
2 26% 63% Median
3 21% 37%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 2% 17%  
7 8% 15%  
8 5% 7% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 55% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 41% 45%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0.4% 4%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.7% 0.9%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 107 100% 101–114 100–116 98–117 96–119
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 92 93% 85–98 83–99 82–100 80–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 91 89% 84–97 82–98 81–99 79–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 83% 82–95 81–96 79–98 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 68% 80–91 79–93 78–94 73–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 53% 79–90 78–91 76–92 72–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 79 13% 73–85 71–88 70–89 67–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 78 5% 71–84 69–84 68–86 66–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 74 2% 69–81 67–82 66–84 63–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.5% 68–79 66–81 65–82 61–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0.2% 66–79 64–80 63–81 61–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 65–75 64–77 62–78 59–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 64 0% 59–70 58–72 56–73 54–76
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 51 0% 46–57 44–59 44–60 41–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 47–57 46–58 44–58 42–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 43 0% 38–48 36–50 35–52 32–54

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.2% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 1.1% 99.3%  
98 1.3% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 5% 95%  
101 3% 90%  
102 5% 87%  
103 7% 82%  
104 6% 75%  
105 6% 69%  
106 5% 64%  
107 13% 59% Last Result, Median
108 9% 46%  
109 4% 37%  
110 7% 33%  
111 6% 26%  
112 4% 19%  
113 4% 15%  
114 3% 11%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 5%  
117 2% 4%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.8% 1.3%  
120 0.2% 0.5%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.7% 99.7%  
81 0.7% 99.0%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 2% 95%  
85 4% 93% Majority
86 3% 89%  
87 5% 85%  
88 6% 81% Last Result
89 7% 75%  
90 12% 68% Median
91 6% 56%  
92 7% 51%  
93 7% 43%  
94 5% 36%  
95 11% 31%  
96 3% 20%  
97 4% 16%  
98 6% 12%  
99 1.0% 6%  
100 3% 5%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.5%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 2% 99.3%  
81 2% 98% Last Result
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 2% 91%  
85 4% 89% Majority
86 4% 85%  
87 7% 81%  
88 6% 74%  
89 11% 68% Median
90 7% 57%  
91 7% 50%  
92 8% 43%  
93 7% 35%  
94 6% 29%  
95 8% 23%  
96 4% 15%  
97 5% 10%  
98 2% 6%  
99 3% 4%  
100 0.3% 0.8%  
101 0.3% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 1.5% 99.5%  
79 1.5% 98%  
80 1.4% 96% Last Result
81 3% 95%  
82 2% 92%  
83 2% 90%  
84 5% 88%  
85 5% 83% Majority
86 7% 78%  
87 13% 71%  
88 5% 58% Median
89 7% 53%  
90 8% 45%  
91 9% 38%  
92 5% 29%  
93 6% 24%  
94 7% 18%  
95 3% 12%  
96 5% 8%  
97 0.6% 4%  
98 3% 3%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.5%  
75 0.1% 99.3%  
76 0.9% 99.2%  
77 0.7% 98%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 5% 94% Last Result
81 5% 89%  
82 4% 84%  
83 8% 80%  
84 5% 73%  
85 10% 68% Majority
86 8% 58%  
87 14% 51% Median
88 5% 37%  
89 11% 32%  
90 5% 21%  
91 6% 16%  
92 3% 10%  
93 3% 7%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.4% 2%  
96 1.1% 1.4%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.4%  
74 0.4% 99.2%  
75 0.9% 98.7%  
76 2% 98%  
77 1.0% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 6% 92% Last Result
80 5% 87%  
81 3% 81%  
82 8% 78%  
83 7% 70%  
84 9% 62%  
85 15% 53% Majority
86 5% 38% Median
87 6% 33%  
88 10% 27%  
89 5% 17%  
90 4% 12%  
91 3% 8%  
92 3% 5%  
93 0.4% 2%  
94 1.2% 1.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.4%  
69 0.5% 99.1%  
70 2% 98.7%  
71 3% 97%  
72 3% 94%  
73 6% 91%  
74 7% 85%  
75 4% 78%  
76 6% 74% Median
77 6% 67%  
78 8% 61%  
79 6% 54%  
80 11% 47%  
81 5% 37%  
82 7% 31%  
83 6% 25%  
84 6% 19%  
85 3% 13% Majority
86 2% 10%  
87 2% 8%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 4% Last Result
90 0.6% 1.2%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.8%  
67 0.9% 99.1%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 2% 94%  
71 3% 92%  
72 5% 89%  
73 4% 84%  
74 9% 80%  
75 5% 71%  
76 9% 67% Median
77 6% 58% Last Result
78 8% 52%  
79 10% 44%  
80 6% 35%  
81 3% 29%  
82 5% 26%  
83 8% 20%  
84 8% 13%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.9% 99.0%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 2% 94%  
69 4% 91%  
70 6% 87%  
71 9% 81%  
72 10% 72%  
73 5% 63%  
74 11% 57% Median
75 6% 47%  
76 8% 41%  
77 4% 33%  
78 5% 29%  
79 5% 24%  
80 5% 19%  
81 4% 14%  
82 5% 10%  
83 2% 5%  
84 0.5% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.3% 100%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.2% 99.5%  
63 0.7% 99.3%  
64 0.9% 98.7%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 94%  
68 4% 91%  
69 5% 87%  
70 6% 82%  
71 9% 76%  
72 9% 66%  
73 7% 58%  
74 14% 51% Median
75 5% 37%  
76 11% 32% Last Result
77 6% 20%  
78 4% 14%  
79 3% 10%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.4% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.4% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 0.5% 99.1%  
63 1.1% 98.6%  
64 3% 97%  
65 2% 95%  
66 5% 93%  
67 4% 87%  
68 8% 83%  
69 9% 75%  
70 9% 66%  
71 4% 57%  
72 6% 52% Median
73 11% 46%  
74 5% 35%  
75 7% 29%  
76 2% 23%  
77 6% 20%  
78 4% 14%  
79 3% 11%  
80 4% 8% Last Result
81 2% 4%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.6%  
60 0.3% 99.5%  
61 0.9% 99.1%  
62 1.2% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 4% 92%  
66 4% 88%  
67 7% 85%  
68 4% 77% Last Result
69 9% 73%  
70 10% 64%  
71 12% 54%  
72 7% 42% Median
73 10% 35%  
74 10% 25%  
75 6% 14%  
76 3% 8%  
77 3% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 99.2%  
56 2% 98.6%  
57 2% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 5% 91%  
60 7% 86%  
61 6% 79%  
62 9% 73%  
63 10% 64%  
64 6% 54% Median
65 8% 48%  
66 7% 39%  
67 11% 32%  
68 5% 21%  
69 4% 16%  
70 4% 13%  
71 2% 8%  
72 2% 6% Last Result
73 2% 4%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.0%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.2%  
43 0.8% 98.7%  
44 3% 98%  
45 5% 95%  
46 2% 90%  
47 5% 88%  
48 5% 83%  
49 5% 79%  
50 15% 73%  
51 9% 59% Median
52 10% 49%  
53 8% 39%  
54 5% 31%  
55 7% 26%  
56 7% 18%  
57 5% 12%  
58 2% 7%  
59 2% 5%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 2% Last Result
62 0.4% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.2% 99.7%  
43 1.0% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 1.3% 97%  
46 2% 95%  
47 4% 93%  
48 6% 89%  
49 7% 84%  
50 7% 77%  
51 12% 70%  
52 11% 59%  
53 15% 47% Median
54 9% 33%  
55 9% 24%  
56 4% 15%  
57 5% 11%  
58 3% 6%  
59 1.5% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 98.8%  
34 0.7% 98%  
35 1.4% 98% Last Result
36 1.5% 96%  
37 3% 95%  
38 6% 92%  
39 8% 87%  
40 6% 79%  
41 7% 73%  
42 9% 66%  
43 12% 57% Median
44 10% 45%  
45 12% 35%  
46 6% 23%  
47 4% 16%  
48 4% 12%  
49 2% 8%  
50 2% 6%  
51 1.4% 4%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.5% 1.0%  
54 0.1% 0.6%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations