Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 22–26 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.1–29.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 19.2% 17.6–20.9% 17.2–21.3% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 18.2% 16.7–19.9% 16.3–20.4% 15.9–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Rødt 2.4% 6.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–50 42–52 41–53 38–54
Senterpartiet 19 36 34–39 33–41 33–42 30–44
Arbeiderpartiet 49 34 30–38 28–38 28–40 27–40
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–17 11–17 11–18 10–20
Fremskrittspartiet 27 13 10–14 9–15 9–16 8–17
Rødt 1 11 10–14 9–14 9–14 8–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–3 1–7 1–7 0–8
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–6 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.6%  
39 0.8% 99.4%  
40 0.7% 98.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 95%  
43 7% 93%  
44 14% 86%  
45 14% 73% Last Result
46 14% 59% Median
47 6% 44%  
48 11% 38%  
49 4% 27%  
50 14% 23%  
51 4% 9%  
52 3% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.4% 0.8%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.8%  
31 0.4% 99.3%  
32 1.3% 98.9%  
33 3% 98%  
34 13% 94%  
35 14% 82%  
36 24% 68% Median
37 17% 44%  
38 13% 27%  
39 5% 15%  
40 3% 9%  
41 2% 6%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 3% 98%  
29 4% 95%  
30 7% 90%  
31 11% 83%  
32 10% 72%  
33 5% 62%  
34 7% 56% Median
35 12% 49%  
36 13% 37%  
37 7% 23%  
38 11% 16%  
39 2% 5%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 6% 98% Last Result
12 6% 93%  
13 15% 86%  
14 35% 71% Median
15 15% 36%  
16 10% 21%  
17 6% 11%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.0% 99.9%  
9 6% 98.9%  
10 13% 93%  
11 16% 80%  
12 11% 64%  
13 32% 52% Median
14 13% 21%  
15 4% 8%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 1.2% 99.8%  
9 7% 98.6%  
10 18% 92%  
11 24% 74% Median
12 24% 49%  
13 14% 25%  
14 9% 11%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 36% 98%  
3 4% 62%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 7% 58%  
7 32% 51% Median
8 15% 19%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 19% 99.4%  
2 27% 81%  
3 43% 53% Median
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 3% 10%  
7 5% 7%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 8% 98%  
2 87% 90% Median
3 0.3% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0.9% 3%  
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 101 100% 96–106 94–108 93–109 90–112
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 95–105 93–107 93–108 91–110
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 96 99.9% 91–101 90–102 89–104 86–106
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 92 98.6% 88–97 86–99 85–100 82–102
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 90% 84–95 83–96 82–97 80–99
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 50% 80–89 79–90 78–91 76–93
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 79 5% 72–83 71–84 70–86 68–87
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.1% 68–77 67–79 66–80 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 68 0% 63–75 62–75 61–77 59–79
Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet 68 71 0% 66–74 64–75 64–76 62–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 63 0% 59–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 57–65 56–67 55–68 51–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 55–63 54–65 53–66 49–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 47–56 46–57 45–58 42–61
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 48 0% 43–53 42–54 41–55 39–56
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 41 0% 38–45 37–47 37–48 35–51

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 1.2% 99.2%  
93 0.5% 98%  
94 4% 97%  
95 3% 93%  
96 4% 91%  
97 5% 86%  
98 5% 81%  
99 5% 76%  
100 11% 72%  
101 19% 61%  
102 7% 42% Median
103 10% 35%  
104 4% 25%  
105 4% 21%  
106 8% 17%  
107 2% 9%  
108 2% 7%  
109 3% 5%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0.1% 0.9%  
112 0.6% 0.8%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.2% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 0.9% 99.2%  
93 5% 98%  
94 3% 93%  
95 7% 91%  
96 5% 83%  
97 10% 78%  
98 7% 67%  
99 6% 60%  
100 7% 54% Median
101 13% 47%  
102 8% 34%  
103 4% 26%  
104 3% 22%  
105 11% 19%  
106 2% 9%  
107 2% 7% Last Result
108 3% 4%  
109 0.9% 2%  
110 0.5% 0.9%  
111 0.2% 0.5%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.7% 99.5%  
88 0.8% 98.8%  
89 3% 98%  
90 3% 95%  
91 3% 92%  
92 6% 90%  
93 3% 84%  
94 18% 81%  
95 6% 62% Median
96 12% 57%  
97 6% 45%  
98 9% 39%  
99 12% 29%  
100 7% 18%  
101 6% 11%  
102 0.8% 5%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.3% 1.0%  
106 0.5% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 99.4%  
84 0.5% 99.0%  
85 4% 98.6% Majority
86 2% 95%  
87 3% 93%  
88 6% 90% Last Result
89 10% 84%  
90 4% 74%  
91 9% 70%  
92 12% 61%  
93 11% 50%  
94 8% 39% Median
95 9% 31%  
96 10% 22%  
97 4% 13%  
98 3% 8%  
99 3% 5%  
100 1.3% 3%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
81 0.4% 98.7%  
82 1.3% 98%  
83 4% 97%  
84 3% 93%  
85 4% 90% Majority
86 7% 86%  
87 5% 79%  
88 10% 73%  
89 11% 64%  
90 13% 52%  
91 9% 39% Median
92 4% 30%  
93 7% 26%  
94 8% 19%  
95 5% 10%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.9% 1.2%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.7% 99.6%  
77 0.9% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96% Last Result
80 3% 92%  
81 5% 89%  
82 6% 84%  
83 16% 78%  
84 11% 62% Median
85 5% 50% Majority
86 15% 45%  
87 16% 30%  
88 4% 15%  
89 4% 10%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.0%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.9% 99.2%  
70 3% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 4% 94%  
73 3% 90%  
74 4% 87%  
75 12% 83%  
76 7% 72%  
77 7% 65% Last Result
78 7% 58%  
79 12% 51%  
80 6% 38% Median
81 9% 32%  
82 12% 24%  
83 5% 12%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.3% 5% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.5% 99.7%  
65 0.8% 99.1%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 5% 94%  
69 5% 89%  
70 5% 83%  
71 5% 78%  
72 12% 73%  
73 13% 61% Median
74 12% 47%  
75 15% 35%  
76 9% 21% Last Result
77 4% 12%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.5%  
60 1.3% 98.9%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 9% 93%  
64 2% 83%  
65 5% 81%  
66 10% 76%  
67 7% 67%  
68 13% 60%  
69 5% 47%  
70 10% 41%  
71 6% 32% Median
72 5% 26%  
73 7% 21%  
74 2% 14%  
75 9% 12%  
76 0.7% 3%  
77 1.5% 3%  
78 0.3% 1.2%  
79 0.6% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Arbeiderpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 1.0% 99.1%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 8% 92%  
67 3% 84%  
68 5% 80% Last Result
69 14% 75%  
70 11% 61% Median
71 6% 50%  
72 16% 44%  
73 14% 28%  
74 6% 14%  
75 3% 8%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 9% 94%  
60 7% 85%  
61 17% 78%  
62 4% 60%  
63 11% 57%  
64 7% 45% Median
65 6% 38%  
66 9% 32%  
67 4% 23%  
68 10% 19%  
69 4% 9%  
70 1.1% 6%  
71 3% 5%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.2% 99.6%  
52 0.5% 99.5%  
53 0.5% 99.0%  
54 0.9% 98%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 95%  
57 10% 92%  
58 16% 82%  
59 6% 66%  
60 8% 60%  
61 12% 52% Median
62 7% 40%  
63 8% 33%  
64 6% 25%  
65 11% 19%  
66 3% 8%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.4% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.6%  
50 0.5% 99.4%  
51 0.4% 98.9%  
52 0.8% 98%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 95%  
55 9% 92%  
56 16% 83%  
57 6% 67%  
58 10% 61%  
59 11% 51% Median
60 8% 40%  
61 8% 32%  
62 6% 24%  
63 11% 19%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 1.5% 99.1%  
45 1.0% 98%  
46 4% 97%  
47 4% 92%  
48 16% 89%  
49 6% 73%  
50 16% 67%  
51 8% 51% Median
52 9% 44%  
53 6% 35%  
54 4% 28%  
55 12% 24%  
56 4% 12%  
57 3% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.4%  
61 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 99.4%  
41 1.3% 98%  
42 4% 97%  
43 3% 93%  
44 4% 89%  
45 5% 86%  
46 16% 81%  
47 9% 65%  
48 6% 56% Median
49 13% 50%  
50 14% 37%  
51 6% 23%  
52 7% 17%  
53 5% 10%  
54 3% 5%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.7%  
35 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
36 1.2% 98.8%  
37 4% 98%  
38 8% 94%  
39 19% 86%  
40 7% 66%  
41 16% 60% Median
42 20% 43%  
43 4% 23%  
44 6% 19%  
45 5% 13%  
46 3% 8%  
47 2% 5%  
48 1.3% 3%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations