Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 2–3 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Høyre 25.0% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–48 41–49 40–51 39–52
Høyre 45 44 40–48 39–49 39–49 37–51
Senterpartiet 19 34 31–36 30–37 29–38 27–39
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 16–21 16–21 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 12–17 11–17 10–18
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.7%  
40 1.5% 98.9%  
41 4% 97%  
42 9% 93%  
43 11% 84%  
44 17% 74%  
45 17% 57% Median
46 10% 40%  
47 12% 31%  
48 10% 19%  
49 4% 9% Last Result
50 2% 4%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.6%  
38 1.0% 99.0%  
39 4% 98%  
40 5% 94%  
41 9% 89%  
42 12% 80%  
43 11% 68%  
44 13% 57% Median
45 13% 44% Last Result
46 13% 31%  
47 7% 17%  
48 5% 11%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.9% 1.2%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.2% 99.3%  
29 3% 98%  
30 4% 95%  
31 7% 91%  
32 11% 84%  
33 19% 73%  
34 15% 54% Median
35 24% 39%  
36 7% 15%  
37 5% 8%  
38 1.4% 3%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.8%  
15 3% 98.8%  
16 10% 96%  
17 18% 86%  
18 15% 67%  
19 17% 52% Median
20 21% 35%  
21 9% 14%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 2%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.9%  
11 4% 99.0% Last Result
12 15% 95%  
13 22% 80%  
14 17% 58% Median
15 25% 41%  
16 10% 16%  
17 4% 6%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 48% 99.9%  
3 8% 52% Median
4 0.9% 44%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 9% 43%  
8 22% 34% Last Result
9 9% 12%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 58% 97% Median
3 0% 39%  
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0% 39%  
7 9% 39%  
8 21% 30%  
9 8% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 13% 99.9% Last Result
2 49% 87% Median
3 16% 38%  
4 0.6% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0.1% 22%  
7 4% 21%  
8 14% 17%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 68% 89% Median
2 10% 22%  
3 11% 12%  
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0% 1.0%  
7 0.5% 1.0%  
8 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 97–107 96–108 95–109 93–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 100 100% 96–106 94–106 93–107 90–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 99.9% 93–102 91–103 89–104 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 100% 92–102 91–104 89–104 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 96 99.9% 91–100 90–101 88–103 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 93 99.2% 88–97 87–98 86–99 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 84 33% 79–88 77–90 76–91 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 81 5% 76–84 74–85 73–86 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 79 2% 75–82 73–83 72–84 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 72 0% 67–77 65–78 65–80 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 69 0% 63–73 63–74 61–76 59–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 62–72 61–74 60–75 58–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 58–67 57–68 56–70 54–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–63 54–64 54–65 52–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 50 0% 46–55 44–56 44–57 42–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 35–45 35–46 34–47 32–48

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.5%  
94 1.1% 99.2%  
95 1.5% 98%  
96 6% 97%  
97 4% 91%  
98 2% 87%  
99 10% 85%  
100 9% 76%  
101 10% 67% Median
102 6% 56%  
103 11% 51%  
104 16% 40%  
105 6% 24%  
106 4% 17%  
107 7% 14% Last Result
108 3% 6%  
109 1.4% 3%  
110 0.9% 2%  
111 0.4% 1.1%  
112 0.3% 0.6%  
113 0.3% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 1.1% 99.1%  
93 2% 98%  
94 1.5% 96%  
95 4% 95%  
96 6% 91%  
97 7% 84% Median
98 10% 77%  
99 7% 68%  
100 14% 61%  
101 9% 47%  
102 9% 38%  
103 10% 29%  
104 5% 19%  
105 3% 14%  
106 6% 11%  
107 2% 5%  
108 1.1% 2%  
109 0.3% 1.1%  
110 0.7% 0.8%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
89 2% 99.1%  
90 1.1% 97%  
91 4% 96%  
92 3% 93%  
93 7% 90%  
94 4% 83%  
95 9% 79%  
96 8% 70% Median
97 13% 62%  
98 6% 49%  
99 17% 43%  
100 9% 26%  
101 5% 17%  
102 5% 11%  
103 3% 6%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 2% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.8%  
88 0.8% 99.4%  
89 1.3% 98.7%  
90 2% 97%  
91 3% 95%  
92 3% 93%  
93 5% 89%  
94 8% 84%  
95 8% 76% Median
96 10% 68%  
97 15% 57%  
98 9% 43%  
99 7% 33%  
100 8% 26%  
101 7% 18%  
102 3% 11%  
103 2% 7%  
104 4% 5%  
105 0.7% 1.4%  
106 0.1% 0.8%  
107 0.5% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.6% 99.5%  
88 2% 98.9%  
89 1.1% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 5% 94%  
92 6% 89%  
93 6% 83%  
94 12% 78%  
95 7% 66% Median
96 15% 59%  
97 5% 44%  
98 15% 39%  
99 9% 24%  
100 5% 15%  
101 5% 10%  
102 2% 5%  
103 0.9% 3%  
104 1.3% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 1.1% 99.2% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 3% 96%  
88 4% 93%  
89 6% 89%  
90 7% 83%  
91 9% 76%  
92 14% 67%  
93 9% 53% Median
94 14% 44%  
95 12% 30%  
96 8% 18%  
97 4% 10%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.4% 3%  
100 0.4% 2%  
101 0.2% 1.3%  
102 1.0% 1.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 99.2%  
76 3% 98.6%  
77 1.4% 95% Last Result
78 3% 94%  
79 6% 90%  
80 6% 84%  
81 5% 78%  
82 8% 73% Median
83 12% 65%  
84 20% 53%  
85 10% 33% Majority
86 7% 23%  
87 4% 16%  
88 5% 13%  
89 2% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 4% 97%  
75 2% 93%  
76 5% 91% Last Result
77 9% 86%  
78 7% 76%  
79 4% 69%  
80 12% 65% Median
81 22% 53%  
82 13% 31%  
83 8% 18%  
84 5% 10%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 0.8% 3%  
87 0.3% 2%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100% Last Result
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 1.2% 99.5%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 4% 97%  
74 2% 93%  
75 5% 90%  
76 9% 85%  
77 8% 76%  
78 11% 68%  
79 11% 57% Median
80 18% 46%  
81 11% 27%  
82 8% 17%  
83 5% 9%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 2%  
87 1.0% 1.2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.3%  
64 0.7% 99.1%  
65 4% 98%  
66 2% 94%  
67 3% 92%  
68 7% 89%  
69 9% 82% Median
70 8% 73%  
71 9% 65%  
72 15% 56%  
73 10% 42%  
74 8% 31%  
75 8% 23%  
76 5% 15%  
77 3% 10%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.3%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 99.1%  
61 1.3% 98.7%  
62 2% 97%  
63 7% 95%  
64 3% 89%  
65 5% 85%  
66 10% 80%  
67 9% 70% Median
68 9% 61%  
69 14% 52%  
70 6% 38%  
71 10% 31%  
72 7% 22%  
73 6% 15%  
74 4% 9%  
75 1.2% 5%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.9%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 1.2% 98.9%  
60 1.5% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 8% 94%  
63 3% 86%  
64 7% 83%  
65 8% 76%  
66 9% 68% Median
67 9% 59%  
68 16% 50%  
69 6% 34%  
70 10% 28%  
71 5% 19%  
72 5% 13%  
73 2% 8%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.9%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.6% 99.5%  
55 1.0% 98.9%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 7% 94%  
59 7% 87%  
60 13% 80%  
61 7% 67%  
62 12% 60%  
63 10% 48% Median
64 9% 39%  
65 5% 30%  
66 13% 25%  
67 4% 13%  
68 5% 9%  
69 1.1% 4%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.3% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.5%  
53 0.9% 98.7%  
54 3% 98%  
55 8% 95%  
56 5% 87%  
57 9% 82%  
58 15% 73%  
59 13% 57% Median
60 15% 44% Last Result
61 10% 29%  
62 5% 19%  
63 8% 14%  
64 0.9% 5%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.5% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.6% 99.6%  
43 0.9% 99.0%  
44 4% 98%  
45 2% 94%  
46 7% 92%  
47 11% 85%  
48 11% 74% Median
49 13% 63%  
50 8% 50%  
51 11% 43%  
52 6% 32%  
53 8% 26%  
54 6% 18%  
55 6% 12%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.4%  
59 0.4% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.5%  
33 1.2% 98.7%  
34 2% 98%  
35 7% 96% Last Result
36 8% 89%  
37 9% 81%  
38 17% 72% Median
39 6% 55%  
40 11% 48%  
41 8% 37%  
42 5% 29%  
43 8% 24%  
44 5% 15%  
45 4% 11%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations