Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 5–10 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.8% 26.0–29.6% 25.5–30.2% 25.1–30.6% 24.2–31.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.2% 20.6–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.6% 17.1–20.2% 16.6–20.7% 16.3–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 51 46–54 45–55 44–56 42–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 38–44 37–45 36–45 34–47
Senterpartiet 19 35 31–37 30–38 30–39 28–40
Fremskrittspartiet 27 15 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–19
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 8 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–7 1–8 1–8 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 2% 98.9%  
45 2% 97% Last Result
46 5% 94%  
47 5% 90%  
48 7% 85%  
49 4% 78%  
50 20% 74%  
51 9% 53% Median
52 25% 44%  
53 8% 19%  
54 6% 11%  
55 2% 5%  
56 0.8% 3%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 1.5% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.5%  
35 0.8% 98.8%  
36 1.5% 98%  
37 6% 97%  
38 11% 91%  
39 9% 80%  
40 18% 71%  
41 12% 53% Median
42 11% 41%  
43 16% 30%  
44 8% 14%  
45 4% 6%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.2% 99.5%  
30 6% 98%  
31 4% 92%  
32 6% 88%  
33 11% 83%  
34 19% 72%  
35 11% 53% Median
36 26% 43%  
37 12% 17%  
38 2% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.3%  
12 8% 94%  
13 24% 86%  
14 12% 62%  
15 26% 50% Median
16 17% 24%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 4% 99.2% Last Result
12 15% 95%  
13 34% 79% Median
14 14% 45%  
15 20% 32%  
16 5% 11%  
17 5% 6%  
18 0.9% 1.2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 10% 99.9%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 6% 90%  
8 38% 84% Median
9 31% 45%  
10 10% 15%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9% Last Result
2 48% 92% Median
3 19% 44%  
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0.4% 24%  
7 15% 24%  
8 7% 8%  
9 1.1% 2%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 4% 99.9%  
2 83% 96% Median
3 1.2% 13%  
4 0.1% 12%  
5 0% 11%  
6 1.2% 11%  
7 5% 10%  
8 5% 5% Last Result
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 60% 78% Median
2 8% 18%  
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 99–107 98–108 96–109 95–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 100 100% 97–105 95–106 94–107 92–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 100% 93–101 92–102 91–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 99.5% 89–98 89–100 87–100 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 99.3% 88–97 88–98 86–99 84–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 93% 85–93 84–94 83–95 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 9% 76–84 74–86 73–87 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 0.5% 72–80 71–81 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.1% 71–79 71–80 69–82 67–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 72 0% 68–76 67–77 66–78 64–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 69 0% 64–72 63–74 62–75 60–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 63–71 61–73 61–74 59–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 60–69 59–70 58–71 56–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 55 0% 50–58 49–60 48–61 46–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–58 50–59 49–60 47–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 34–42 33–44 33–45 32–47

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.6%  
95 1.1% 99.5%  
96 2% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 3% 95%  
99 6% 92%  
100 9% 86%  
101 9% 77%  
102 17% 68%  
103 8% 51%  
104 7% 44% Median
105 7% 37%  
106 14% 30%  
107 7% 15% Last Result
108 4% 8%  
109 2% 5%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.9% 2%  
112 0.4% 0.7%  
113 0.3% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.6% 99.6%  
93 0.7% 99.0%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 97%  
96 4% 94%  
97 7% 91%  
98 7% 84%  
99 16% 77% Median
100 16% 61%  
101 13% 45%  
102 6% 33%  
103 10% 27%  
104 5% 17%  
105 5% 12%  
106 2% 7%  
107 3% 5%  
108 1.3% 2%  
109 0.5% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.6% 99.3%  
90 1.0% 98.6%  
91 2% 98%  
92 4% 96%  
93 5% 92%  
94 8% 87%  
95 7% 80%  
96 9% 73%  
97 23% 64% Median
98 12% 41%  
99 8% 29%  
100 6% 21%  
101 10% 15%  
102 2% 6%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.3% 2%  
105 0.2% 0.6%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.4% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.5% Majority
86 0.4% 99.3%  
87 2% 98.9%  
88 2% 97% Last Result
89 6% 95%  
90 3% 89%  
91 7% 86%  
92 22% 79% Median
93 8% 57%  
94 13% 49%  
95 13% 36%  
96 6% 24%  
97 4% 17%  
98 5% 13%  
99 3% 8%  
100 3% 5%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.1%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 0.3% 99.3% Majority
86 2% 99.0%  
87 2% 97%  
88 8% 96%  
89 3% 88%  
90 5% 84%  
91 21% 79% Median
92 11% 58%  
93 11% 47%  
94 13% 36%  
95 6% 23%  
96 6% 18%  
97 5% 12%  
98 3% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.3% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.8% 99.2%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 4% 93% Majority
86 10% 89%  
87 6% 79%  
88 13% 73%  
89 20% 60% Median
90 9% 40%  
91 11% 32%  
92 10% 21%  
93 2% 10%  
94 4% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.2% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.2%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.2%  
73 1.4% 98.8%  
74 3% 97%  
75 2% 94%  
76 6% 92%  
77 8% 85% Last Result
78 6% 78%  
79 14% 71% Median
80 17% 57%  
81 13% 40%  
82 9% 27%  
83 7% 18%  
84 3% 11%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 99.3%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 5% 95%  
73 7% 89%  
74 7% 82%  
75 8% 75%  
76 10% 67% Last Result
77 20% 56% Median
78 13% 36%  
79 11% 23%  
80 5% 13%  
81 4% 8%  
82 1.1% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
69 2% 98.6%  
70 2% 97%  
71 6% 95%  
72 5% 89%  
73 10% 84%  
74 9% 74%  
75 10% 65%  
76 20% 55% Median
77 13% 35%  
78 10% 21%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 7%  
81 1.1% 4%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.6%  
65 1.3% 99.4%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 10% 94%  
69 6% 85%  
70 8% 79%  
71 12% 71% Median
72 23% 59%  
73 9% 36%  
74 7% 27%  
75 8% 20%  
76 5% 13%  
77 4% 8%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 1.3% 99.3%  
62 3% 98%  
63 2% 95%  
64 5% 93%  
65 5% 88%  
66 10% 83%  
67 6% 73%  
68 13% 67%  
69 16% 55% Median
70 16% 39%  
71 7% 23%  
72 7% 16%  
73 4% 9%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.0%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 1.0% 99.0%  
61 4% 98%  
62 2% 94%  
63 5% 92%  
64 4% 87%  
65 10% 83%  
66 8% 73%  
67 11% 64%  
68 13% 54% Median
69 20% 41%  
70 7% 21%  
71 4% 14%  
72 4% 10%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.0%  
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 1.0% 99.3%  
58 2% 98%  
59 5% 96%  
60 3% 91%  
61 8% 88%  
62 4% 81%  
63 11% 77%  
64 7% 66%  
65 10% 59%  
66 12% 49% Median
67 20% 37%  
68 6% 17%  
69 4% 11%  
70 2% 7%  
71 3% 4%  
72 1.3% 2% Last Result
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 1.1% 99.2%  
48 1.3% 98%  
49 4% 97%  
50 4% 93%  
51 7% 89%  
52 6% 82%  
53 15% 76%  
54 7% 61% Median
55 27% 53%  
56 8% 27%  
57 6% 18%  
58 6% 13%  
59 1.5% 7%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4% Last Result
62 0.5% 1.3%  
63 0.4% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.7%  
48 0.7% 99.1%  
49 1.4% 98%  
50 5% 97%  
51 5% 92%  
52 11% 87%  
53 17% 76%  
54 8% 59% Median
55 16% 50%  
56 8% 35%  
57 10% 27%  
58 10% 17%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 1.1% 99.6%  
33 7% 98%  
34 3% 92%  
35 3% 89% Last Result
36 13% 86%  
37 14% 72%  
38 8% 58% Median
39 22% 50%  
40 13% 28%  
41 2% 15%  
42 4% 13%  
43 2% 9%  
44 3% 7%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.7% 1.3%  
47 0.3% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations