Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 16–21 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 23.7% 22.0–25.6% 21.6–26.1% 21.1–26.5% 20.3–27.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.5% 18.9–22.3% 18.4–22.7% 18.1–23.2% 17.3–24.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 20.5% 18.9–22.3% 18.4–22.7% 18.1–23.2% 17.3–24.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.9% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.6–12.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.5–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Venstre 4.4% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 42 39–46 38–48 37–49 35–51
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 35–42 34–43 32–43 30–45
Senterpartiet 19 38 35–42 34–43 33–44 32–45
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 14–20 14–21 13–21 12–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 10–16 10–17 9–18
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–9 1–9 1–9 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–3

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 1.4% 99.2%  
37 3% 98%  
38 4% 95%  
39 6% 91%  
40 12% 84%  
41 13% 73%  
42 13% 59% Median
43 12% 47%  
44 10% 35%  
45 10% 24% Last Result
46 7% 15%  
47 2% 8%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 1.0% 99.1%  
32 0.9% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 3% 95%  
35 5% 92%  
36 8% 87%  
37 14% 79%  
38 9% 65%  
39 11% 57% Median
40 14% 45%  
41 16% 31%  
42 10% 16%  
43 4% 5%  
44 0.7% 1.4%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.6%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 6% 97%  
35 5% 91%  
36 18% 86%  
37 12% 69%  
38 13% 57% Median
39 9% 44%  
40 13% 36%  
41 12% 22%  
42 5% 10%  
43 2% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.0%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.9%  
13 2% 98.7%  
14 7% 97%  
15 14% 90%  
16 20% 76%  
17 16% 56% Median
18 16% 40%  
19 11% 24%  
20 5% 13%  
21 6% 8%  
22 0.8% 2%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 5% 99.2%  
11 16% 94% Last Result
12 19% 78%  
13 18% 59% Median
14 16% 42%  
15 15% 26%  
16 8% 11%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 44% 99.7%  
3 0.3% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 4% 55%  
7 17% 51% Median
8 23% 34%  
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 16% 95%  
3 24% 78%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 2% 55%  
7 20% 53% Median
8 21% 32% Last Result
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 20% 100% Last Result
2 52% 80% Median
3 7% 28%  
4 3% 21%  
5 0% 18%  
6 2% 18%  
7 10% 16%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 37% 96%  
2 57% 59% Median
3 1.3% 2%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 105 100% 99–110 97–112 96–114 95–117
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 98 99.9% 92–103 91–105 89–106 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 98 99.9% 92–103 91–105 89–106 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 95 99.6% 90–100 88–102 87–102 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 98.7% 88–97 86–99 86–100 83–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 94% 86–94 84–95 83–96 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 85 58% 80–91 77–91 77–93 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 83 29% 77–87 75–88 74–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 77 0.3% 73–81 72–81 70–82 67–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 69 0.1% 63–75 62–77 62–79 59–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 66 0% 61–72 60–74 59–76 57–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 56–66 55–68 54–70 52–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 55–65 53–66 52–68 51–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 48–56 46–57 45–58 43–61
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 45–54 44–56 43–57 41–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 45 0% 41–50 39–51 38–53 37–55

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 2% 99.6%  
96 1.5% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 4% 94%  
99 4% 91%  
100 4% 86%  
101 7% 83%  
102 11% 76%  
103 6% 65%  
104 9% 59%  
105 14% 50%  
106 4% 36% Median
107 6% 32% Last Result
108 7% 27%  
109 3% 20%  
110 8% 17%  
111 2% 9%  
112 2% 7%  
113 2% 5%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 1.4% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.0%  
117 0.3% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 1.1% 99.5% Last Result
89 1.0% 98%  
90 0.9% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 5% 94%  
93 2% 90%  
94 7% 88%  
95 5% 80%  
96 6% 75%  
97 8% 69%  
98 12% 61%  
99 11% 49% Median
100 8% 37%  
101 3% 29%  
102 12% 26%  
103 5% 14%  
104 3% 9%  
105 3% 6%  
106 1.4% 3%  
107 0.7% 2%  
108 0.6% 1.0%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 1.3% 99.7%  
89 0.9% 98%  
90 1.0% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 4% 94%  
93 4% 90%  
94 5% 85%  
95 3% 80%  
96 8% 77%  
97 17% 69%  
98 7% 52%  
99 8% 45% Median
100 7% 36%  
101 6% 29%  
102 8% 23%  
103 5% 14%  
104 3% 9%  
105 3% 7%  
106 1.2% 3%  
107 2% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.6% Majority
86 1.1% 99.5%  
87 1.3% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 3% 95%  
90 7% 92%  
91 3% 84%  
92 5% 81%  
93 5% 76%  
94 8% 71%  
95 19% 63%  
96 9% 44%  
97 6% 36% Median
98 7% 29%  
99 9% 23%  
100 5% 14%  
101 3% 9%  
102 4% 6%  
103 1.3% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.1%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.2%  
85 0.4% 98.7% Majority
86 4% 98%  
87 2% 94%  
88 3% 92%  
89 5% 89%  
90 10% 84%  
91 11% 74%  
92 9% 63% Median
93 6% 55%  
94 11% 48%  
95 19% 38%  
96 3% 19%  
97 7% 16%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 6%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.1%  
103 0.1% 0.6%  
104 0.4% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.5% 99.9%  
81 0.6% 99.4%  
82 0.5% 98.8%  
83 1.5% 98%  
84 3% 97%  
85 4% 94% Majority
86 5% 90%  
87 5% 86%  
88 16% 80%  
89 8% 65%  
90 12% 56% Median
91 8% 44%  
92 10% 37%  
93 14% 27%  
94 5% 12%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.3%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.5%  
101 0.4% 0.4%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 99.3%  
76 1.1% 98.7%  
77 3% 98% Last Result
78 1.4% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 3% 91%  
81 6% 87%  
82 10% 82%  
83 4% 71%  
84 9% 67%  
85 10% 58% Majority
86 11% 48% Median
87 7% 37%  
88 7% 30%  
89 6% 23%  
90 5% 17%  
91 7% 11%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.6%  
72 0.4% 99.4%  
73 0.6% 99.1%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 2% 94% Last Result
77 3% 92%  
78 3% 89%  
79 7% 86%  
80 10% 78%  
81 9% 68%  
82 7% 59%  
83 15% 52%  
84 9% 38% Median
85 9% 29% Majority
86 7% 20%  
87 4% 13%  
88 4% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.4% Last Result
69 0.6% 98.8%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 4% 96%  
73 6% 92%  
74 6% 86%  
75 10% 80%  
76 13% 70%  
77 12% 57% Median
78 14% 45%  
79 9% 31%  
80 12% 22%  
81 6% 10%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.4% 2%  
84 0.9% 1.1%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.3%  
61 0.9% 98.9%  
62 3% 98%  
63 5% 95%  
64 2% 89%  
65 6% 87%  
66 13% 82%  
67 10% 69%  
68 8% 59%  
69 6% 51%  
70 6% 45% Median
71 9% 39%  
72 6% 30%  
73 6% 24%  
74 6% 18%  
75 3% 13%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 0.4% 5%  
79 2% 4%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 1.0% 98.9%  
59 1.1% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 5% 93%  
62 5% 88%  
63 6% 83%  
64 15% 77%  
65 9% 62%  
66 8% 53%  
67 10% 45%  
68 6% 35% Median
69 6% 29%  
70 7% 23%  
71 3% 16%  
72 3% 13%  
73 4% 10%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.5% 4%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.4%  
54 2% 98.6%  
55 4% 96%  
56 6% 93%  
57 8% 87%  
58 9% 79%  
59 9% 70%  
60 5% 61%  
61 14% 57% Median
62 12% 43%  
63 4% 31%  
64 7% 27%  
65 6% 20%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.3% 4%  
70 1.4% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.3%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 2% 99.2%  
53 2% 97%  
54 4% 95%  
55 7% 90%  
56 8% 83%  
57 12% 75%  
58 4% 64%  
59 9% 59% Median
60 17% 50%  
61 5% 33%  
62 7% 29%  
63 6% 22%  
64 5% 16%  
65 4% 11%  
66 3% 8%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.9%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 98.8%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 2% 94%  
48 7% 92%  
49 10% 85%  
50 9% 75%  
51 7% 66%  
52 20% 59% Median
53 7% 39%  
54 11% 31%  
55 6% 21%  
56 10% 15%  
57 1.0% 5%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.5% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 1.3% 99.1%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 7% 91%  
46 6% 84%  
47 11% 78%  
48 11% 67%  
49 10% 56%  
50 11% 46%  
51 9% 35% Median
52 6% 26%  
53 5% 21%  
54 6% 16%  
55 4% 10%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.0% 3%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.8% 1.1%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.2% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.6%  
38 2% 98%  
39 2% 96%  
40 4% 94%  
41 8% 90%  
42 5% 82%  
43 7% 76%  
44 8% 69%  
45 18% 62%  
46 10% 43%  
47 9% 34% Median
48 7% 25%  
49 7% 18%  
50 4% 12%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.7% 1.3%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations