Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 22–24 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.3% 22.4–26.4% 21.8–26.9% 21.4–27.5% 20.5–28.5%
Høyre 25.0% 20.9% 19.1–22.9% 18.6–23.4% 18.2–23.9% 17.3–24.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.8% 15.1–18.6% 14.7–19.1% 14.3–19.6% 13.5–20.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.6% 10.2–13.2% 9.8–13.6% 9.5–14.0% 8.9–14.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.3–8.8% 6.0–9.1% 5.8–9.5% 5.3–10.2%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.4% 3.6–6.7% 3.2–7.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–47 40–49 39–50 38–52
Høyre 45 37 34–41 33–41 32–42 31–45
Senterpartiet 19 32 28–35 27–36 26–36 25–38
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–24 17–25 16–25 15–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 10–15 10–16 9–16 9–18
Rødt 1 9 6–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2 1–6 1–7 0–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–3 1–7 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 4% 97%  
41 7% 93%  
42 8% 86%  
43 7% 78%  
44 23% 71% Median
45 27% 49%  
46 10% 22%  
47 4% 12%  
48 2% 8%  
49 2% 6% Last Result
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.9% 1.3%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 2% 97%  
34 8% 95%  
35 25% 87%  
36 10% 62%  
37 8% 52% Median
38 10% 44%  
39 9% 34%  
40 12% 25%  
41 10% 13%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.9% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.9%  
45 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 0.9% 99.7%  
26 3% 98.7%  
27 5% 96%  
28 9% 91%  
29 8% 82%  
30 11% 74%  
31 9% 64%  
32 9% 55% Median
33 20% 46%  
34 14% 26%  
35 5% 12%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.1% 99.5%  
16 3% 98%  
17 8% 95%  
18 12% 87%  
19 12% 75%  
20 17% 63% Median
21 12% 45%  
22 10% 33%  
23 8% 23%  
24 10% 15%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 3% 99.6%  
10 7% 97%  
11 22% 89% Last Result
12 16% 68%  
13 24% 52% Median
14 13% 27%  
15 9% 14%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 9% 100%  
3 0.1% 91%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0.7% 91%  
7 12% 90%  
8 26% 77%  
9 30% 51% Median
10 15% 21%  
11 4% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 30% 99.9% Last Result
2 43% 70% Median
3 14% 27%  
4 1.2% 13%  
5 0% 11%  
6 1.4% 11%  
7 5% 10%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.8% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 7% 99.1%  
2 82% 92% Median
3 5% 10%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0.6% 5%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 47% 95% Median
2 23% 48%  
3 19% 26%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 1.2% 6%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 99 100% 94–104 92–105 92–106 89–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 99.9% 91–101 90–102 89–103 86–105
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 93 99.0% 89–98 87–99 86–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 99.0% 88–97 86–99 85–100 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 96% 86–96 85–97 84–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 83% 83–93 83–94 82–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 12% 75–85 73–87 72–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 2% 73–82 72–83 71–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.3% 71–80 70–81 69–82 67–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 64 0% 59–69 59–70 57–72 56–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 61 0% 57–67 56–68 55–69 53–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 55–64 54–66 53–67 52–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 53–62 52–64 51–65 50–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–60 52–62 51–63 49–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 42 0% 38–45 37–46 36–48 34–50
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 32–39 30–40 30–42 28–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 1.1% 99.4%  
91 0.6% 98%  
92 3% 98%  
93 4% 94%  
94 5% 91%  
95 8% 86%  
96 9% 77%  
97 7% 68%  
98 7% 61%  
99 6% 54%  
100 7% 49% Median
101 12% 42%  
102 12% 30%  
103 6% 18%  
104 4% 12%  
105 3% 8%  
106 2% 4%  
107 1.1% 2%  
108 0.5% 1.0%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.6%  
87 0.3% 99.3%  
88 2% 99.1%  
89 1.2% 98%  
90 3% 96%  
91 6% 93%  
92 4% 87%  
93 6% 83%  
94 9% 77%  
95 9% 68%  
96 7% 60%  
97 7% 52%  
98 11% 45% Median
99 13% 35%  
100 6% 22%  
101 9% 16%  
102 3% 7%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.6% 1.1%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.6%  
85 0.7% 99.0% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 95%  
89 4% 91%  
90 7% 87%  
91 9% 80%  
92 14% 70% Median
93 7% 57%  
94 13% 49%  
95 13% 37%  
96 6% 24%  
97 8% 18%  
98 5% 10%  
99 2% 6%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.0%  
103 0.1% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.6% 99.6%  
85 2% 99.0% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 9% 93% Last Result
89 9% 84%  
90 6% 75%  
91 6% 69%  
92 8% 63% Median
93 6% 55%  
94 14% 49%  
95 9% 35%  
96 13% 26%  
97 3% 13%  
98 3% 10%  
99 3% 6%  
100 1.2% 4%  
101 1.2% 2%  
102 0.6% 1.2%  
103 0.2% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.6% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.1%  
84 3% 98.6%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 10% 93%  
87 8% 84%  
88 8% 75%  
89 6% 67%  
90 7% 61%  
91 7% 54% Median
92 7% 47%  
93 14% 41%  
94 11% 27%  
95 6% 16%  
96 3% 10%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 0.9% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
80 0.8% 99.5%  
81 1.0% 98.7%  
82 1.1% 98%  
83 8% 97%  
84 6% 89%  
85 5% 83% Majority
86 11% 78%  
87 8% 67%  
88 7% 58%  
89 9% 51% Median
90 14% 42%  
91 7% 29%  
92 10% 21%  
93 6% 11%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 2% 98.8%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 92%  
76 6% 90%  
77 10% 83% Last Result
78 6% 73%  
79 6% 67% Median
80 13% 62%  
81 12% 49%  
82 6% 37%  
83 14% 31%  
84 5% 16%  
85 4% 12% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.3%  
70 0.5% 98.6%  
71 3% 98%  
72 2% 95%  
73 6% 93%  
74 5% 87%  
75 7% 82%  
76 11% 75% Last Result
77 8% 64% Median
78 7% 56%  
79 17% 49%  
80 11% 31%  
81 9% 20%  
82 4% 11%  
83 3% 7%  
84 1.4% 4%  
85 0.9% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.4%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.6%  
68 0.8% 98.9% Last Result
69 1.4% 98%  
70 5% 97%  
71 4% 91%  
72 5% 87%  
73 8% 82%  
74 6% 73%  
75 13% 68%  
76 6% 54% Median
77 10% 48%  
78 16% 38%  
79 11% 21%  
80 4% 11%  
81 4% 7%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 1.1% 97%  
59 7% 96%  
60 4% 90%  
61 11% 85%  
62 12% 74% Median
63 10% 63%  
64 7% 53%  
65 11% 46%  
66 7% 35%  
67 8% 28%  
68 6% 20%  
69 7% 14%  
70 2% 7%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.4%  
75 0.2% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 99.4%  
55 3% 98%  
56 3% 95%  
57 7% 93%  
58 5% 85%  
59 13% 80%  
60 8% 67% Median
61 10% 59%  
62 6% 49%  
63 7% 43%  
64 9% 36%  
65 11% 27%  
66 6% 16%  
67 3% 10%  
68 4% 7%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.2%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 4% 97%  
55 3% 93%  
56 8% 90%  
57 11% 82%  
58 16% 71%  
59 7% 55% Median
60 8% 48%  
61 6% 40%  
62 3% 34%  
63 15% 31%  
64 6% 15%  
65 2% 9%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 0.8% 1.3%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.6%  
51 1.5% 98.5%  
52 4% 97%  
53 4% 93%  
54 9% 89%  
55 11% 80%  
56 17% 69%  
57 7% 52% Median
58 9% 45%  
59 5% 36%  
60 3% 32%  
61 14% 29%  
62 6% 15%  
63 2% 9%  
64 3% 7%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 0.8% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.1%  
51 1.2% 98.6%  
52 6% 97%  
53 5% 92%  
54 7% 86%  
55 10% 80%  
56 14% 70%  
57 16% 56% Median
58 12% 39%  
59 12% 27%  
60 6% 15% Last Result
61 4% 9%  
62 3% 6%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.4%  
65 0.2% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.3%  
36 2% 98%  
37 7% 97%  
38 14% 90%  
39 12% 76%  
40 6% 65% Median
41 8% 59%  
42 12% 50%  
43 12% 39%  
44 15% 26%  
45 5% 12%  
46 2% 7%  
47 1.4% 5%  
48 1.4% 3%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.6%  
29 1.2% 99.1%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 95%  
32 5% 91%  
33 13% 87%  
34 8% 74%  
35 7% 66% Last Result, Median
36 16% 58%  
37 13% 42%  
38 13% 28%  
39 7% 15%  
40 3% 8%  
41 2% 5%  
42 1.2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.4%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations