Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 23–28 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.2% 23.5–27.1% 23.0–27.6% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.3% 21.7–25.2% 21.2–25.7% 20.8–26.1% 20.0–27.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.6% 15.2–18.3% 14.8–18.7% 14.4–19.1% 13.7–19.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.2% 9.1–11.6% 8.7–12.0% 8.5–12.3% 7.9–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.3–6.9%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 41–49 40–50 39–51 37–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–46 39–46 38–47 36–49
Senterpartiet 19 31 28–35 27–36 26–36 24–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–15 9–16 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 4–10 3–11 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–7 1–7 0–8 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.4%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 2% 97%  
41 5% 95%  
42 10% 90%  
43 14% 79%  
44 16% 65% Median
45 10% 49% Last Result
46 10% 39%  
47 6% 29%  
48 9% 23%  
49 9% 14%  
50 2% 5%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.3% 1.2%  
53 0.5% 0.8%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 0.6% 99.4%  
38 2% 98.8%  
39 4% 96%  
40 9% 92%  
41 11% 83%  
42 20% 72%  
43 20% 52% Median
44 16% 32%  
45 5% 16%  
46 6% 11%  
47 3% 5%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 0.8% 1.3% Last Result
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.5%  
25 1.2% 99.2%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 12% 93%  
29 10% 81%  
30 9% 71%  
31 13% 62% Median
32 11% 49%  
33 11% 37%  
34 14% 26%  
35 7% 12%  
36 5% 5%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.7%  
14 3% 99.0%  
15 4% 96%  
16 13% 92%  
17 23% 79%  
18 22% 56% Median
19 17% 34%  
20 9% 18%  
21 5% 9%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.0% 2%  
24 0.8% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 9% 97%  
11 18% 88% Last Result
12 23% 71% Median
13 17% 47%  
14 19% 30%  
15 6% 11%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 5% 99.9%  
3 3% 95%  
4 3% 93%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0.2% 89%  
7 6% 89%  
8 29% 83%  
9 33% 54% Median
10 13% 20%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 40% 99.9%  
3 5% 60%  
4 0.1% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0.8% 55%  
7 18% 54% Median
8 26% 36% Last Result
9 8% 10%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 60% 96% Median
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 1.4% 36%  
7 13% 35%  
8 15% 22%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 47% 96% Median
2 15% 49%  
3 23% 34%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 1.2% 11%  
7 7% 10%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 102 100% 97–106 96–108 95–109 93–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 94–104 92–106 91–107 89–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 99.9% 92–102 90–103 89–104 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.4% 90–99 88–101 87–102 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 94% 86–95 84–97 83–98 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 68% 82–91 80–92 79–93 77–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 51% 80–90 78–91 77–92 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 79 6% 74–83 72–85 71–86 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 1.0% 71–81 70–82 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0.1% 70–78 68–79 67–80 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 70 0% 65–75 63–77 62–78 60–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 63–73 61–74 60–76 58–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 58–67 57–68 56–70 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–59 50–60 50–61 48–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 52 0% 47–57 46–58 45–60 43–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 34–44 32–45 31–47 30–49

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 0.8% 99.4%  
95 2% 98.6%  
96 4% 97%  
97 4% 93%  
98 8% 89%  
99 7% 81%  
100 9% 74%  
101 13% 65% Median
102 13% 52%  
103 15% 39%  
104 6% 24%  
105 6% 18%  
106 4% 11%  
107 2% 8% Last Result
108 2% 5%  
109 0.9% 3%  
110 1.1% 2%  
111 0.4% 1.2%  
112 0.7% 0.8%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 1.0% 99.2%  
91 1.4% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 3% 95%  
94 3% 91%  
95 11% 88%  
96 7% 77%  
97 8% 71% Median
98 10% 63%  
99 11% 52%  
100 14% 41%  
101 5% 27%  
102 6% 22%  
103 5% 16%  
104 4% 12%  
105 2% 8%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.1% 3%  
108 1.3% 2%  
109 0.5% 0.7%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
89 2% 98.6%  
90 3% 97%  
91 3% 94%  
92 4% 91%  
93 7% 87%  
94 10% 80%  
95 7% 70%  
96 8% 64% Median
97 10% 56%  
98 9% 45%  
99 9% 37%  
100 8% 27%  
101 8% 19%  
102 2% 11%  
103 4% 9%  
104 2% 5%  
105 2% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 0.3% 99.4% Majority
86 0.6% 99.1%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 97%  
89 4% 94%  
90 5% 90%  
91 6% 85%  
92 6% 79%  
93 11% 72%  
94 7% 61%  
95 10% 54% Median
96 10% 44%  
97 8% 33%  
98 12% 25%  
99 4% 14%  
100 4% 10%  
101 2% 6%  
102 3% 4%  
103 0.4% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.8% 99.1%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 3% 94% Majority
86 9% 90%  
87 5% 82%  
88 10% 77% Median
89 5% 67%  
90 13% 62%  
91 10% 49%  
92 11% 40%  
93 6% 29%  
94 10% 23%  
95 4% 14%  
96 2% 9%  
97 3% 7%  
98 1.4% 4%  
99 1.4% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.0%  
101 0.4% 0.5%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 0.6% 99.2%  
79 2% 98.5% Last Result
80 3% 97%  
81 3% 94%  
82 6% 91%  
83 7% 85%  
84 10% 78%  
85 7% 68% Majority
86 13% 61% Median
87 6% 48%  
88 13% 42%  
89 8% 30%  
90 10% 22%  
91 3% 12%  
92 6% 9%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.2%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 99.6%  
76 0.6% 99.3%  
77 3% 98.7% Last Result
78 2% 95%  
79 3% 94%  
80 12% 90%  
81 6% 78%  
82 5% 72%  
83 9% 67%  
84 6% 58% Median
85 10% 51% Majority
86 7% 41%  
87 12% 35%  
88 6% 23%  
89 6% 17%  
90 4% 11%  
91 3% 7%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.5% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 1.4% 99.0%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 3% 96%  
73 2% 93%  
74 4% 91%  
75 10% 86%  
76 6% 77%  
77 11% 71%  
78 10% 60%  
79 13% 51% Median
80 5% 38%  
81 10% 33%  
82 5% 23%  
83 9% 18%  
84 3% 10%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 1.0% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 11% 95%  
72 4% 83%  
73 7% 80%  
74 8% 73%  
75 6% 64% Median
76 6% 59% Last Result
77 13% 52%  
78 8% 39%  
79 10% 30%  
80 7% 20%  
81 5% 13%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.4% 1.0% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 1.4% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96% Last Result
69 3% 94%  
70 14% 91%  
71 6% 77%  
72 10% 72%  
73 5% 62%  
74 9% 56% Median
75 6% 47%  
76 14% 41%  
77 10% 28%  
78 12% 18%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.2%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.8%  
61 1.3% 99.3%  
62 1.1% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 4% 92%  
66 5% 88%  
67 6% 84%  
68 5% 78%  
69 14% 73%  
70 11% 59% Median
71 10% 48%  
72 8% 37%  
73 7% 29%  
74 11% 23%  
75 3% 12%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 0.6% 99.3%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 3% 97%  
62 3% 94%  
63 4% 91%  
64 6% 87%  
65 5% 81%  
66 10% 76%  
67 9% 65%  
68 11% 56%  
69 11% 45% Median
70 9% 35%  
71 4% 25%  
72 6% 22%  
73 9% 16%  
74 2% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.5%  
55 1.1% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 5% 93%  
59 6% 88%  
60 9% 82%  
61 12% 73%  
62 10% 61% Median
63 8% 52%  
64 11% 44%  
65 7% 33%  
66 12% 26%  
67 6% 14%  
68 4% 8%  
69 1.0% 4%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 4% 98%  
51 4% 94%  
52 9% 89%  
53 7% 81%  
54 11% 73%  
55 17% 62% Median
56 16% 45%  
57 13% 29%  
58 4% 15%  
59 3% 11%  
60 4% 8% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 4% 97%  
47 5% 93%  
48 5% 88%  
49 8% 83%  
50 5% 76%  
51 12% 71%  
52 11% 59% Median
53 8% 49%  
54 12% 41%  
55 8% 29%  
56 4% 21%  
57 8% 17%  
58 4% 9%  
59 2% 5%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.8%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.7%  
30 0.4% 99.6%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 3% 97%  
33 3% 95%  
34 4% 92%  
35 6% 88% Last Result
36 14% 83%  
37 9% 69%  
38 8% 60%  
39 11% 52% Median
40 8% 40%  
41 4% 33%  
42 10% 29%  
43 9% 19%  
44 4% 11%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.1% 3%  
48 0.2% 2%  
49 1.1% 1.4%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations