Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 7–12 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.5–28.7% 24.0–29.3% 23.5–29.8% 22.6–30.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.3% 23.4–27.5% 22.8–28.1% 22.3–28.6% 21.4–29.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.2% 11.7–16.7% 11.0–17.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 8.3% 7.1–9.7% 6.8–10.1% 6.5–10.5% 6.0–11.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.5% 6.0–9.9% 5.5–10.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.5–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.4% 3.6–5.5% 3.3–5.8% 3.2–6.1% 2.8–6.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 44–53 42–54 41–55 39–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–50 42–51 41–53 39–56
Senterpartiet 19 26 21–30 20–31 20–32 19–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 15 12–17 12–18 11–19 10–20
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–17 11–18 10–18 10–20
Rødt 1 9 2–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–10 1–11 1–12
Venstre 8 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–7 0–8 0–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 0.9% 99.1%  
41 2% 98%  
42 1.3% 96%  
43 3% 95%  
44 3% 92%  
45 4% 89% Last Result
46 12% 84%  
47 11% 72%  
48 9% 61%  
49 10% 52% Median
50 16% 42%  
51 7% 26%  
52 7% 19%  
53 4% 12%  
54 6% 9%  
55 1.2% 3%  
56 0.9% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 3% 98%  
42 8% 95%  
43 13% 87%  
44 13% 74%  
45 13% 62% Median
46 10% 48%  
47 12% 38%  
48 8% 26%  
49 8% 19% Last Result
50 3% 10%  
51 3% 7%  
52 1.3% 4%  
53 0.9% 3%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.3%  
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7% Last Result
20 3% 98%  
21 5% 95%  
22 8% 90%  
23 8% 81%  
24 8% 73%  
25 7% 65%  
26 14% 57% Median
27 15% 43%  
28 8% 28%  
29 6% 20%  
30 8% 15%  
31 4% 7%  
32 1.1% 3%  
33 0.6% 2%  
34 0.5% 1.0%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.2% 99.8%  
11 3% 98.6%  
12 9% 96%  
13 15% 86%  
14 15% 71%  
15 22% 56% Median
16 18% 34%  
17 10% 16%  
18 4% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 11% 97% Last Result
12 19% 86%  
13 27% 67% Median
14 15% 40%  
15 9% 26%  
16 5% 17%  
17 7% 12%  
18 3% 5%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 11% 99.8%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 1.4% 89%  
7 14% 88%  
8 22% 74%  
9 25% 52% Median
10 17% 27%  
11 8% 11%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 15% 97%  
3 3% 82%  
4 1.1% 79%  
5 0% 78%  
6 1.1% 78%  
7 10% 77%  
8 27% 67% Median
9 28% 41%  
10 10% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 16% 99.9%  
2 62% 84% Median
3 1.2% 22%  
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 1.2% 20%  
7 15% 19%  
8 2% 4% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 41% 90% Median
2 11% 50%  
3 24% 39%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 2% 14%  
7 5% 12%  
8 5% 7% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 101 100% 95–105 92–106 91–108 88–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.3% 90–99 89–102 88–104 84–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 98.9% 90–99 88–101 87–102 83–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 98% 87–99 86–100 85–101 82–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 96% 87–96 85–98 83–100 80–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 58% 80–90 79–91 77–93 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 16% 76–86 74–89 73–91 71–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 3% 70–78 69–83 68–85 65–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 75 2% 70–82 69–83 68–84 64–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0.1% 67–76 66–77 65–80 63–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 68 0% 64–74 63–76 61–78 57–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 61–71 59–72 58–73 55–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 59–68 56–69 55–70 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–64 55–66 54–67 52–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 49–60 47–62 46–63 44–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 27–36 25–39 25–40 23–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.5%  
89 0.7% 99.4%  
90 1.1% 98.6%  
91 1.0% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 2% 95%  
94 3% 93%  
95 4% 90%  
96 6% 86%  
97 5% 80%  
98 7% 76%  
99 5% 69%  
100 7% 64%  
101 10% 57% Median
102 14% 47%  
103 9% 32%  
104 10% 23%  
105 6% 13%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.4% 4%  
108 1.2% 3%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 0.3% 1.1%  
111 0.3% 0.8%  
112 0.3% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.3% 99.3% Majority
86 0.4% 99.0%  
87 0.8% 98.5%  
88 2% 98% Last Result
89 3% 96%  
90 5% 93%  
91 9% 88%  
92 5% 79%  
93 6% 74% Median
94 19% 68%  
95 10% 49%  
96 18% 39%  
97 4% 21%  
98 3% 17%  
99 4% 14%  
100 2% 9%  
101 2% 7%  
102 0.8% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.1%  
107 0.5% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.4%  
85 0.4% 98.9% Majority
86 0.8% 98%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 2% 93%  
90 4% 91%  
91 10% 87%  
92 13% 77%  
93 4% 64% Median
94 12% 60%  
95 13% 49%  
96 9% 35%  
97 8% 27%  
98 7% 19%  
99 4% 12%  
100 3% 9%  
101 2% 6%  
102 2% 4%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.2%  
105 0.3% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 99.3%  
84 1.2% 98.8%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 6% 94%  
88 4% 88%  
89 4% 84%  
90 4% 80%  
91 5% 75%  
92 8% 70%  
93 9% 62% Median
94 14% 53%  
95 14% 38%  
96 6% 24%  
97 5% 19%  
98 4% 14%  
99 4% 10%  
100 2% 6%  
101 2% 4%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.5% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.6% 99.2%  
82 0.9% 98.7%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 1.1% 97%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 2% 94%  
87 4% 93%  
88 8% 89%  
89 4% 81%  
90 6% 77%  
91 7% 71%  
92 9% 63% Median
93 13% 54%  
94 12% 40%  
95 14% 29%  
96 5% 15%  
97 3% 9%  
98 2% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.7% 3%  
101 0.4% 2%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.9%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.2%  
77 1.1% 98.6%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 96% Last Result
80 6% 93%  
81 3% 86%  
82 5% 84%  
83 7% 79%  
84 14% 72% Median
85 17% 58% Majority
86 10% 41%  
87 8% 32%  
88 4% 23%  
89 8% 19%  
90 4% 11%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.1% 4%  
93 0.6% 3%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.4% 1.4%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.6%  
72 0.6% 99.2%  
73 2% 98.6%  
74 1.5% 96%  
75 4% 95%  
76 4% 91%  
77 7% 87% Last Result
78 7% 81%  
79 7% 73%  
80 9% 67% Median
81 8% 57%  
82 12% 49%  
83 17% 37%  
84 4% 20%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 1.3% 8%  
88 1.0% 7%  
89 1.3% 6%  
90 2% 5%  
91 0.8% 3%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.5%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 0.5% 99.2%  
67 0.6% 98.7%  
68 3% 98%  
69 5% 95%  
70 5% 91%  
71 7% 86%  
72 14% 78% Median
73 13% 65%  
74 19% 52%  
75 8% 33%  
76 8% 25% Last Result
77 4% 17%  
78 3% 12%  
79 1.0% 9%  
80 1.1% 9%  
81 0.9% 7%  
82 1.2% 6%  
83 2% 5%  
84 0.7% 3%  
85 1.4% 3% Majority
86 0.2% 1.3%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.3% 99.3%  
66 0.6% 99.0%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 4% 93%  
71 4% 89%  
72 5% 85%  
73 6% 80%  
74 14% 75%  
75 14% 61% Median
76 9% 46%  
77 8% 37%  
78 5% 29%  
79 4% 24%  
80 4% 20%  
81 4% 15%  
82 6% 11%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.8%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 3% 98%  
66 5% 96%  
67 7% 90%  
68 4% 83% Last Result
69 8% 80%  
70 5% 72%  
71 16% 67% Median
72 10% 51%  
73 19% 41%  
74 4% 22%  
75 6% 18%  
76 4% 12%  
77 3% 8%  
78 1.0% 5%  
79 1.2% 4%  
80 0.6% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.9%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.5%  
59 0.4% 99.1%  
60 0.8% 98.7%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 6% 93%  
65 10% 86%  
66 9% 76%  
67 14% 67% Median
68 10% 53%  
69 7% 42%  
70 5% 36%  
71 7% 30%  
72 5% 24%  
73 6% 19%  
74 4% 13%  
75 3% 9%  
76 1.4% 6%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.3%  
57 0.8% 98.6%  
58 2% 98%  
59 1.3% 96%  
60 2% 95%  
61 3% 93%  
62 4% 90%  
63 7% 85%  
64 12% 78%  
65 11% 67%  
66 12% 56% Median
67 9% 44%  
68 8% 36%  
69 8% 27%  
70 8% 20%  
71 4% 11%  
72 4% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.4%  
76 0.4% 1.1%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 0.9% 98.9%  
55 1.2% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 2% 94%  
58 2% 93%  
59 3% 90%  
60 6% 87%  
61 8% 81%  
62 13% 73%  
63 13% 60%  
64 15% 47% Median
65 7% 32%  
66 8% 25%  
67 5% 17%  
68 6% 12%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.6%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 2% 98%  
55 8% 96%  
56 14% 88%  
57 7% 74%  
58 11% 67% Median
59 14% 56%  
60 7% 42% Last Result
61 9% 35%  
62 9% 26%  
63 5% 17%  
64 3% 11%  
65 3% 9%  
66 2% 5%  
67 0.9% 3%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 0.6% 99.2%  
46 1.4% 98.7%  
47 3% 97%  
48 2% 95%  
49 11% 93%  
50 7% 82%  
51 6% 76%  
52 13% 70% Median
53 10% 57%  
54 7% 47%  
55 6% 40%  
56 8% 34%  
57 8% 26%  
58 4% 18%  
59 2% 14%  
60 4% 12%  
61 2% 8% Last Result
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.8% 1.5%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 4% 98%  
26 3% 94%  
27 6% 91%  
28 10% 84%  
29 11% 74% Median
30 13% 63%  
31 9% 50%  
32 9% 41%  
33 10% 33%  
34 3% 22%  
35 4% 19% Last Result
36 5% 15%  
37 3% 10%  
38 1.2% 6%  
39 2% 5%  
40 1.1% 3%  
41 0.6% 2%  
42 0.7% 1.2%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations