Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 20–24 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 27.4% | 25.6% | 23.9–27.5% | 23.4–28.0% | 23.0–28.5% | 22.2–29.4% |
| Høyre | 25.0% | 21.8% | 20.2–23.6% | 19.7–24.1% | 19.3–24.5% | 18.5–25.4% |
| Senterpartiet | 10.3% | 17.8% | 16.2–19.4% | 15.8–19.9% | 15.5–20.3% | 14.8–21.1% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 15.2% | 10.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.2–12.0% | 7.7–12.7% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.4–9.8% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.7% |
| Rødt | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.6% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.5% |
| Venstre | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 49 | 48 | 44–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 41–56 |
| Høyre | 45 | 40 | 37–43 | 35–44 | 35–46 | 33–48 |
| Senterpartiet | 19 | 33 | 31–37 | 29–38 | 29–38 | 27–39 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 27 | 19 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–22 | 13–24 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 11 | 14 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 10–18 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 8 | 3 | 2–9 | 1–9 | 1–10 | 1–10 |
| Rødt | 1 | 2 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 1–9 | 1–10 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 1 | 2 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 1–9 | 1–10 |
| Venstre | 8 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 11% | 95% | |
| 45 | 8% | 84% | |
| 46 | 14% | 76% | |
| 47 | 10% | 62% | |
| 48 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 49 | 11% | 40% | Last Result |
| 50 | 9% | 28% | |
| 51 | 6% | 20% | |
| 52 | 8% | 14% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 4% | 94% | |
| 37 | 7% | 90% | |
| 38 | 10% | 83% | |
| 39 | 17% | 73% | |
| 40 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 41 | 9% | 39% | |
| 42 | 16% | 30% | |
| 43 | 8% | 14% | |
| 44 | 2% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 4% | 95% | |
| 31 | 12% | 91% | |
| 32 | 9% | 79% | |
| 33 | 20% | 70% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 49% | |
| 35 | 15% | 35% | |
| 36 | 9% | 19% | |
| 37 | 4% | 10% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 9% | 96% | |
| 16 | 8% | 87% | |
| 17 | 12% | 79% | |
| 18 | 14% | 67% | |
| 19 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 41% | |
| 21 | 14% | 22% | |
| 22 | 6% | 8% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 7% | 97% | Last Result |
| 12 | 13% | 90% | |
| 13 | 23% | 78% | |
| 14 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 15 | 20% | 32% | |
| 16 | 8% | 12% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 13% | 93% | |
| 3 | 45% | 81% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 36% | |
| 5 | 0% | 36% | |
| 6 | 0% | 36% | |
| 7 | 11% | 36% | |
| 8 | 15% | 25% | Last Result |
| 9 | 8% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 60% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 36% | |
| 4 | 0% | 36% | |
| 5 | 0% | 36% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 7 | 12% | 36% | |
| 8 | 18% | 24% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 45% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 13% | 43% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 5 | 0% | 29% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 7 | 7% | 29% | |
| 8 | 16% | 22% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 82% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 8% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 7 | 2% | 7% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 88 | 104 | 100% | 99–108 | 98–109 | 96–110 | 94–112 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 81 | 103 | 100% | 98–108 | 96–109 | 95–110 | 93–112 |
| Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 107 | 98 | 100% | 95–104 | 94–105 | 92–107 | 89–108 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt | 80 | 99 | 100% | 94–104 | 92–105 | 91–106 | 89–108 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 80 | 99 | 100% | 94–103 | 93–104 | 91–105 | 89–107 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 79 | 95 | 99.8% | 90–100 | 89–101 | 88–102 | 86–104 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 77 | 90 | 89% | 84–94 | 84–96 | 83–97 | 80–99 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 76 | 86 | 66% | 82–90 | 80–92 | 79–93 | 76–95 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 68 | 81 | 23% | 77–86 | 75–87 | 75–88 | 72–90 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre | 89 | 69 | 0% | 65–74 | 64–76 | 62–77 | 60–79 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 88 | 65 | 0% | 61–70 | 60–72 | 58–73 | 56–76 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 60 | 62 | 0% | 57–66 | 56–67 | 55–69 | 53–71 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 80 | 62 | 0% | 56–65 | 55–67 | 54–68 | 52–70 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 72 | 59 | 0% | 54–63 | 53–64 | 51–65 | 49–67 |
| Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 61 | 47 | 0% | 43–52 | 42–53 | 41–54 | 39–56 |
| Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 35 | 40 | 0% | 36–45 | 36–47 | 35–48 | 32–51 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 97 | 2% | 97% | |
| 98 | 3% | 95% | |
| 99 | 12% | 93% | |
| 100 | 5% | 81% | Median |
| 101 | 5% | 76% | |
| 102 | 11% | 71% | |
| 103 | 6% | 60% | |
| 104 | 7% | 53% | |
| 105 | 20% | 46% | |
| 106 | 12% | 26% | |
| 107 | 3% | 15% | |
| 108 | 5% | 11% | |
| 109 | 3% | 6% | |
| 110 | 2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 4% | 92% | |
| 99 | 7% | 88% | Median |
| 100 | 6% | 81% | |
| 101 | 9% | 75% | |
| 102 | 9% | 66% | |
| 103 | 8% | 57% | |
| 104 | 18% | 49% | |
| 105 | 8% | 31% | |
| 106 | 8% | 23% | |
| 107 | 5% | 15% | |
| 108 | 4% | 10% | |
| 109 | 3% | 6% | |
| 110 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 91 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 93 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 94 | 4% | 95% | |
| 95 | 4% | 91% | |
| 96 | 8% | 87% | |
| 97 | 15% | 79% | Median |
| 98 | 15% | 64% | |
| 99 | 7% | 49% | |
| 100 | 5% | 42% | |
| 101 | 12% | 37% | |
| 102 | 4% | 25% | |
| 103 | 10% | 21% | |
| 104 | 4% | 11% | |
| 105 | 2% | 7% | |
| 106 | 2% | 5% | |
| 107 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 108 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 97% | |
| 93 | 3% | 95% | |
| 94 | 4% | 92% | |
| 95 | 8% | 88% | |
| 96 | 4% | 80% | |
| 97 | 10% | 76% | Median |
| 98 | 8% | 66% | |
| 99 | 10% | 59% | |
| 100 | 7% | 49% | |
| 101 | 15% | 42% | |
| 102 | 9% | 27% | |
| 103 | 6% | 18% | |
| 104 | 5% | 12% | |
| 105 | 3% | 7% | |
| 106 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 93 | 4% | 96% | |
| 94 | 3% | 92% | |
| 95 | 5% | 90% | |
| 96 | 15% | 85% | |
| 97 | 9% | 70% | Median |
| 98 | 8% | 61% | |
| 99 | 10% | 53% | |
| 100 | 10% | 43% | |
| 101 | 6% | 33% | |
| 102 | 12% | 27% | |
| 103 | 7% | 15% | |
| 104 | 4% | 8% | |
| 105 | 2% | 4% | |
| 106 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 88 | 3% | 98% | |
| 89 | 3% | 95% | |
| 90 | 5% | 92% | |
| 91 | 7% | 87% | |
| 92 | 6% | 81% | |
| 93 | 8% | 74% | |
| 94 | 12% | 66% | |
| 95 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 96 | 6% | 42% | |
| 97 | 9% | 36% | |
| 98 | 6% | 27% | |
| 99 | 8% | 21% | |
| 100 | 6% | 13% | |
| 101 | 2% | 7% | |
| 102 | 3% | 5% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 83 | 3% | 98% | |
| 84 | 6% | 95% | |
| 85 | 5% | 89% | Majority |
| 86 | 7% | 84% | Median |
| 87 | 8% | 77% | |
| 88 | 4% | 69% | |
| 89 | 9% | 65% | |
| 90 | 10% | 56% | |
| 91 | 19% | 46% | |
| 92 | 5% | 27% | |
| 93 | 5% | 22% | |
| 94 | 7% | 17% | |
| 95 | 3% | 10% | |
| 96 | 3% | 6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 2% | 96% | |
| 81 | 4% | 94% | |
| 82 | 10% | 90% | |
| 83 | 9% | 81% | |
| 84 | 5% | 71% | Median |
| 85 | 14% | 66% | Majority |
| 86 | 5% | 52% | |
| 87 | 10% | 47% | |
| 88 | 14% | 37% | |
| 89 | 10% | 23% | |
| 90 | 3% | 13% | |
| 91 | 3% | 9% | |
| 92 | 3% | 6% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 75 | 4% | 98% | |
| 76 | 3% | 94% | |
| 77 | 4% | 91% | |
| 78 | 5% | 88% | |
| 79 | 12% | 82% | |
| 80 | 17% | 70% | |
| 81 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 82 | 15% | 46% | |
| 83 | 4% | 32% | |
| 84 | 4% | 28% | |
| 85 | 10% | 23% | Majority |
| 86 | 6% | 13% | |
| 87 | 3% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 4% | 95% | |
| 65 | 6% | 91% | |
| 66 | 7% | 85% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 79% | |
| 68 | 15% | 69% | |
| 69 | 8% | 53% | |
| 70 | 9% | 45% | |
| 71 | 6% | 35% | |
| 72 | 9% | 29% | |
| 73 | 4% | 20% | |
| 74 | 7% | 16% | |
| 75 | 2% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 4% | 92% | |
| 62 | 8% | 88% | |
| 63 | 8% | 80% | |
| 64 | 8% | 72% | Median |
| 65 | 18% | 64% | |
| 66 | 9% | 46% | |
| 67 | 9% | 37% | |
| 68 | 7% | 28% | |
| 69 | 5% | 21% | |
| 70 | 6% | 16% | |
| 71 | 4% | 10% | |
| 72 | 2% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 56 | 5% | 96% | |
| 57 | 8% | 91% | |
| 58 | 7% | 83% | |
| 59 | 6% | 76% | |
| 60 | 7% | 70% | Last Result |
| 61 | 9% | 62% | |
| 62 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 63 | 14% | 41% | |
| 64 | 9% | 27% | |
| 65 | 4% | 19% | |
| 66 | 9% | 15% | |
| 67 | 2% | 6% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 55 | 5% | 97% | |
| 56 | 4% | 92% | |
| 57 | 5% | 88% | |
| 58 | 5% | 83% | |
| 59 | 9% | 78% | |
| 60 | 6% | 69% | |
| 61 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 62 | 24% | 52% | |
| 63 | 9% | 29% | |
| 64 | 5% | 20% | |
| 65 | 6% | 15% | |
| 66 | 3% | 9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 5% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 5% | 96% | |
| 54 | 7% | 90% | |
| 55 | 4% | 83% | |
| 56 | 5% | 79% | |
| 57 | 9% | 74% | |
| 58 | 7% | 65% | |
| 59 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 22% | 46% | |
| 61 | 8% | 24% | |
| 62 | 4% | 16% | |
| 63 | 7% | 12% | |
| 64 | 2% | 5% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 5% | 91% | |
| 44 | 8% | 86% | |
| 45 | 16% | 78% | Median |
| 46 | 9% | 62% | |
| 47 | 13% | 53% | |
| 48 | 8% | 39% | |
| 49 | 8% | 31% | |
| 50 | 5% | 23% | |
| 51 | 4% | 18% | |
| 52 | 5% | 13% | |
| 53 | 4% | 8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 36 | 8% | 95% | |
| 37 | 7% | 88% | |
| 38 | 16% | 81% | Median |
| 39 | 7% | 65% | |
| 40 | 11% | 58% | |
| 41 | 8% | 47% | |
| 42 | 5% | 38% | |
| 43 | 8% | 33% | |
| 44 | 10% | 24% | |
| 45 | 5% | 14% | |
| 46 | 5% | 10% | |
| 47 | 2% | 5% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Vårt Land
- Fieldwork period: 20–24 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 963
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.77%