Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 26–30 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 20.9–28.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.1% 19.5–22.9% 19.1–23.4% 18.7–23.8% 17.9–24.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.6% 16.1–21.0% 15.4–21.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.5–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 42 39–46 39–48 37–49 35–51
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 36–43 35–43 34–44 32–45
Senterpartiet 19 35 32–38 31–38 30–39 28–41
Fremskrittspartiet 27 14 12–17 11–18 10–18 9–20
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 10–16 10–17 9–18
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 3–9 2–10 1–12
Venstre 8 6 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.5%  
37 1.4% 98.7%  
38 2% 97%  
39 9% 95%  
40 11% 87%  
41 20% 76%  
42 13% 55% Median
43 9% 43%  
44 9% 34%  
45 8% 25% Last Result
46 7% 16%  
47 3% 10%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.3% 3%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.6% 99.5%  
33 0.7% 99.0%  
34 3% 98%  
35 4% 96%  
36 5% 91%  
37 5% 86%  
38 9% 81%  
39 10% 72%  
40 21% 62% Median
41 14% 41%  
42 16% 27%  
43 7% 11%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.7% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 1.4% 99.3%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 7% 92%  
33 6% 85%  
34 12% 80%  
35 18% 68% Median
36 29% 49%  
37 9% 20%  
38 7% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 2% 99.5%  
11 5% 97%  
12 11% 92%  
13 16% 81%  
14 19% 65% Median
15 15% 46%  
16 18% 31%  
17 6% 13%  
18 5% 7%  
19 1.0% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.9%  
10 4% 98.8%  
11 11% 94% Last Result
12 11% 84%  
13 22% 73%  
14 18% 51% Median
15 21% 33%  
16 8% 11%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.6% 1.0%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 17% 100%  
3 0.1% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 6% 83%  
7 26% 77%  
8 24% 51% Median
9 18% 27%  
10 6% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 2% 99.3%  
3 20% 97%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 15% 78%  
7 21% 63% Median
8 22% 42% Last Result
9 16% 20%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.7% 1.2%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 33% 100%  
3 7% 67%  
4 0.2% 59%  
5 0% 59%  
6 11% 59% Median
7 23% 48%  
8 18% 25% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 71% 78% Last Result, Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 104 100% 98–109 98–111 96–112 94–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 96 99.8% 91–100 89–101 88–103 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 96 99.7% 91–100 90–101 88–102 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 95 99.6% 90–99 89–100 87–101 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 92% 85–93 83–94 82–94 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 88% 84–92 82–93 81–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 82 31% 77–87 76–87 74–88 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 81 22% 76–86 75–87 73–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0% 70–78 69–79 68–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 69 0.1% 64–75 63–77 63–78 60–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 69 0% 63–74 62–76 62–77 59–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 62 0% 56–68 56–69 55–70 54–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 52–61 52–64 50–64 49–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 48–60 47–61 47–63 45–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 49–57 47–58 46–58 45–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 47 0% 41–52 40–53 39–54 36–56

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.6% 99.9%  
95 0.7% 99.2%  
96 2% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 6% 95%  
99 7% 89%  
100 6% 82%  
101 8% 76%  
102 9% 68%  
103 7% 59%  
104 11% 52% Median
105 8% 41%  
106 7% 33%  
107 6% 26% Last Result
108 8% 20%  
109 3% 12%  
110 4% 9%  
111 2% 6%  
112 3% 4%  
113 0.4% 1.3%  
114 0.6% 0.9%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.8% 99.8% Majority
86 0.3% 99.0%  
87 0.7% 98.7%  
88 0.7% 98% Last Result
89 3% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 5% 93%  
92 8% 88%  
93 6% 80%  
94 11% 75%  
95 12% 64%  
96 10% 51%  
97 10% 42% Median
98 10% 32%  
99 7% 23%  
100 7% 16%  
101 4% 9%  
102 2% 5%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.6% 1.1%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.1% 99.7% Majority
86 0.5% 99.5%  
87 0.6% 99.0%  
88 1.4% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 93%  
92 5% 89%  
93 6% 85%  
94 10% 79%  
95 12% 69%  
96 11% 57%  
97 6% 46%  
98 11% 40% Median
99 11% 28%  
100 9% 17%  
101 5% 8%  
102 1.1% 3%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.9% 1.2%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.2% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.5% 99.6% Majority
86 0.7% 99.0%  
87 1.3% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 1.4% 95%  
90 4% 94%  
91 4% 90%  
92 6% 86%  
93 7% 80%  
94 14% 72%  
95 9% 59%  
96 9% 49%  
97 9% 40% Median
98 14% 31%  
99 8% 16%  
100 5% 8%  
101 1.4% 4%  
102 0.5% 2%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.5%  
80 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
81 0.8% 98.9%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 2% 94%  
85 5% 92% Majority
86 10% 87%  
87 8% 77%  
88 10% 69%  
89 11% 59%  
90 9% 48% Median
91 11% 39%  
92 12% 28%  
93 10% 16%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.3% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.1%  
97 0.2% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.6%  
99 0.4% 0.4%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.5%  
79 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
80 0.8% 99.0%  
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 2% 95%  
84 4% 92%  
85 9% 88% Majority
86 8% 80%  
87 9% 71%  
88 12% 62%  
89 10% 50% Median
90 14% 40%  
91 10% 26%  
92 11% 16%  
93 3% 5%  
94 1.1% 3%  
95 0.6% 1.4%  
96 0.3% 0.8%  
97 0.1% 0.5%  
98 0.4% 0.4%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 99.5%  
73 0.9% 98.9%  
74 0.7% 98%  
75 1.1% 97%  
76 4% 96%  
77 4% 92% Last Result
78 4% 88%  
79 7% 83%  
80 5% 77%  
81 12% 72%  
82 13% 59%  
83 10% 46% Median
84 6% 36%  
85 8% 31% Majority
86 8% 23%  
87 10% 15%  
88 3% 5%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 1.0% 99.1%  
73 0.6% 98%  
74 1.1% 97%  
75 4% 96%  
76 3% 93% Last Result
77 5% 90%  
78 7% 85%  
79 6% 78%  
80 11% 72%  
81 13% 61%  
82 7% 48% Median
83 9% 40%  
84 9% 31%  
85 8% 22% Majority
86 9% 15%  
87 4% 6%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.8% 1.1%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.7%  
66 0.4% 98.9%  
67 0.7% 98.5%  
68 1.1% 98% Last Result
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 94%  
71 5% 90%  
72 13% 85%  
73 6% 72%  
74 12% 66%  
75 9% 55% Median
76 8% 46%  
77 14% 38%  
78 15% 24%  
79 7% 9%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.4% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.5%  
62 0.7% 98.6%  
63 5% 98%  
64 7% 92%  
65 7% 85%  
66 5% 78%  
67 8% 73%  
68 8% 66%  
69 8% 57%  
70 8% 49% Median
71 8% 41%  
72 9% 33%  
73 5% 25%  
74 5% 20%  
75 6% 15%  
76 4% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 99.4%  
61 0.8% 98.6%  
62 5% 98%  
63 7% 93%  
64 6% 85%  
65 5% 80%  
66 8% 74%  
67 6% 67%  
68 11% 61%  
69 9% 50% Median
70 6% 41%  
71 9% 35%  
72 5% 26%  
73 6% 21%  
74 7% 15%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.3%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.6% 99.6%  
55 4% 99.0%  
56 7% 95%  
57 3% 88%  
58 8% 85%  
59 4% 78%  
60 12% 74%  
61 6% 62%  
62 11% 55% Median
63 10% 45%  
64 6% 35%  
65 7% 29%  
66 7% 22%  
67 4% 15%  
68 5% 11%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 2% 97%  
52 6% 95%  
53 8% 89%  
54 12% 81%  
55 11% 69%  
56 6% 58% Median
57 7% 52%  
58 14% 44%  
59 7% 30%  
60 7% 24%  
61 6% 16%  
62 3% 10%  
63 2% 7%  
64 3% 5%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.2%  
47 5% 98.6%  
48 4% 94%  
49 2% 89%  
50 4% 88%  
51 9% 83%  
52 11% 75%  
53 7% 63%  
54 7% 56%  
55 8% 49% Median
56 9% 41%  
57 10% 32%  
58 7% 22%  
59 3% 15%  
60 6% 12%  
61 2% 5% Last Result
62 0.6% 3%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.4% 1.3%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 99.5%  
46 1.4% 98%  
47 2% 97%  
48 3% 95%  
49 3% 92%  
50 6% 89%  
51 10% 83%  
52 8% 73%  
53 9% 65%  
54 18% 56% Median
55 23% 38%  
56 5% 15%  
57 3% 10%  
58 5% 7%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.6% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.5%  
37 0.4% 99.5%  
38 0.4% 99.1%  
39 1.2% 98.6%  
40 2% 97%  
41 6% 95%  
42 3% 89%  
43 3% 86%  
44 10% 83%  
45 10% 73%  
46 8% 63%  
47 11% 55%  
48 7% 44% Median
49 7% 37%  
50 11% 30%  
51 8% 19%  
52 5% 10%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations