Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 27 April–3 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 27.4% | 23.2% | 21.5–25.0% | 21.0–25.5% | 20.6–26.0% | 19.8–26.8% |
| Høyre | 25.0% | 21.1% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.0–23.4% | 18.6–23.8% | 17.9–24.7% |
| Senterpartiet | 10.3% | 17.5% | 16.0–19.2% | 15.6–19.7% | 15.3–20.1% | 14.6–20.9% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 15.2% | 11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.7–13.1% | 9.4–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 6.0% | 8.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.1–10.7% | 6.6–11.4% |
| Rødt | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 2.9–6.4% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Venstre | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.5% | 1.9–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 49 | 43 | 40–45 | 39–47 | 38–48 | 37–50 |
| Høyre | 45 | 37 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 32–45 |
| Senterpartiet | 19 | 32 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 26–39 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 27 | 20 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 15–26 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 11 | 16 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| Rødt | 1 | 8 | 2–9 | 2–10 | 2–10 | 2–11 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 8 | 8 | 2–9 | 2–9 | 1–10 | 1–11 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 1 | 3 | 2–9 | 1–9 | 1–9 | 1–10 |
| Venstre | 8 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 39 | 6% | 96% | |
| 40 | 8% | 90% | |
| 41 | 10% | 83% | |
| 42 | 18% | 73% | |
| 43 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 44 | 23% | 38% | |
| 45 | 6% | 15% | |
| 46 | 3% | 9% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 50 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 34 | 8% | 96% | |
| 35 | 8% | 88% | |
| 36 | 15% | 80% | |
| 37 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 38 | 11% | 49% | |
| 39 | 9% | 37% | |
| 40 | 12% | 28% | |
| 41 | 7% | 16% | |
| 42 | 4% | 9% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 3% | 97% | |
| 29 | 8% | 94% | |
| 30 | 6% | 86% | |
| 31 | 18% | 79% | |
| 32 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 33 | 22% | 48% | |
| 34 | 8% | 27% | |
| 35 | 9% | 18% | |
| 36 | 6% | 10% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 6% | 95% | |
| 18 | 11% | 89% | |
| 19 | 20% | 79% | |
| 20 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 45% | |
| 22 | 17% | 30% | |
| 23 | 7% | 14% | |
| 24 | 4% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 12 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 7% | 97% | |
| 14 | 14% | 90% | |
| 15 | 21% | 75% | |
| 16 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 17 | 12% | 32% | |
| 18 | 13% | 20% | |
| 19 | 5% | 7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 30% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 69% | |
| 4 | 0% | 69% | |
| 5 | 0% | 69% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 69% | |
| 7 | 8% | 69% | |
| 8 | 27% | 61% | Median |
| 9 | 24% | 34% | |
| 10 | 7% | 9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 96% | |
| 3 | 18% | 88% | |
| 4 | 0% | 71% | |
| 5 | 0% | 71% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 7 | 12% | 71% | |
| 8 | 30% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 25% | 29% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 41% | 95% | |
| 3 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 0.7% | 44% | |
| 5 | 0% | 44% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 44% | |
| 7 | 15% | 43% | |
| 8 | 17% | 29% | |
| 9 | 10% | 11% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 81% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 14% | |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 7 | 5% | 9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 81 | 102 | 100% | 96–107 | 96–108 | 95–109 | 93–111 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 88 | 102 | 100% | 98–106 | 95–108 | 94–109 | 92–111 |
| Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 107 | 99 | 100% | 95–104 | 93–106 | 92–107 | 90–108 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt | 80 | 97 | 100% | 92–103 | 91–104 | 90–105 | 87–107 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 80 | 95 | 99.8% | 91–99 | 90–101 | 88–103 | 86–105 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 79 | 91 | 97% | 87–95 | 85–97 | 84–98 | 82–100 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 77 | 86 | 71% | 81–92 | 79–92 | 78–94 | 76–96 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 76 | 82 | 17% | 76–85 | 74–87 | 73–88 | 72–90 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 68 | 75 | 0.2% | 71–79 | 70–80 | 69–82 | 66–83 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre | 89 | 72 | 0% | 66–77 | 65–78 | 64–79 | 62–82 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 88 | 67 | 0% | 62–73 | 61–73 | 60–74 | 58–76 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 80 | 60 | 0% | 56–65 | 55–66 | 53–67 | 51–71 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 72 | 58 | 0% | 53–63 | 51–64 | 50–65 | 49–67 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 60 | 58 | 0% | 55–62 | 54–63 | 52–64 | 51–66 |
| Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 61 | 47 | 0% | 42–51 | 41–53 | 40–54 | 38–55 |
| Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 35 | 42 | 0% | 36–46 | 35–47 | 34–48 | 32–50 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 96 | 9% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 88% | |
| 98 | 5% | 85% | |
| 99 | 6% | 80% | |
| 100 | 6% | 74% | |
| 101 | 9% | 68% | |
| 102 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 103 | 9% | 42% | |
| 104 | 5% | 33% | |
| 105 | 13% | 29% | |
| 106 | 5% | 16% | |
| 107 | 4% | 11% | |
| 108 | 3% | 7% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 96 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 97 | 2% | 93% | |
| 98 | 3% | 91% | |
| 99 | 9% | 88% | |
| 100 | 7% | 79% | |
| 101 | 7% | 72% | |
| 102 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 103 | 14% | 42% | |
| 104 | 8% | 27% | |
| 105 | 8% | 20% | |
| 106 | 2% | 12% | |
| 107 | 4% | 10% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 3% | 97% | |
| 94 | 3% | 94% | |
| 95 | 11% | 91% | |
| 96 | 6% | 80% | |
| 97 | 6% | 74% | |
| 98 | 7% | 68% | |
| 99 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 100 | 14% | 48% | |
| 101 | 8% | 34% | |
| 102 | 6% | 27% | |
| 103 | 6% | 21% | |
| 104 | 7% | 16% | |
| 105 | 3% | 8% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 107 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 108 | 2% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 89 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 90 | 3% | 98% | |
| 91 | 2% | 96% | |
| 92 | 6% | 94% | |
| 93 | 4% | 88% | |
| 94 | 11% | 84% | |
| 95 | 5% | 73% | |
| 96 | 8% | 68% | |
| 97 | 13% | 60% | |
| 98 | 7% | 46% | |
| 99 | 8% | 39% | Median |
| 100 | 15% | 32% | |
| 101 | 5% | 17% | |
| 102 | 2% | 12% | |
| 103 | 5% | 10% | |
| 104 | 3% | 5% | |
| 105 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 90 | 3% | 96% | |
| 91 | 5% | 93% | |
| 92 | 5% | 88% | |
| 93 | 13% | 84% | |
| 94 | 17% | 71% | Median |
| 95 | 8% | 55% | |
| 96 | 8% | 47% | |
| 97 | 13% | 39% | |
| 98 | 7% | 26% | |
| 99 | 9% | 19% | |
| 100 | 4% | 10% | |
| 101 | 2% | 6% | |
| 102 | 2% | 5% | |
| 103 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 85 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 86 | 3% | 94% | |
| 87 | 7% | 92% | |
| 88 | 8% | 85% | |
| 89 | 11% | 77% | |
| 90 | 14% | 66% | |
| 91 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 92 | 12% | 36% | |
| 93 | 5% | 24% | |
| 94 | 4% | 19% | |
| 95 | 7% | 15% | |
| 96 | 3% | 8% | |
| 97 | 2% | 5% | |
| 98 | 2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 78 | 2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 2% | 96% | |
| 80 | 2% | 94% | |
| 81 | 6% | 92% | |
| 82 | 4% | 86% | |
| 83 | 4% | 82% | |
| 84 | 7% | 78% | |
| 85 | 13% | 71% | Majority |
| 86 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 87 | 10% | 45% | |
| 88 | 9% | 36% | |
| 89 | 6% | 27% | |
| 90 | 3% | 21% | |
| 91 | 8% | 18% | |
| 92 | 6% | 10% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 3% | 94% | |
| 76 | 3% | 92% | Last Result |
| 77 | 3% | 89% | |
| 78 | 4% | 86% | |
| 79 | 6% | 81% | |
| 80 | 9% | 75% | |
| 81 | 10% | 66% | |
| 82 | 7% | 57% | |
| 83 | 18% | 49% | Median |
| 84 | 15% | 31% | |
| 85 | 7% | 17% | Majority |
| 86 | 3% | 9% | |
| 87 | 3% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 6% | 93% | |
| 72 | 8% | 87% | |
| 73 | 7% | 79% | |
| 74 | 15% | 72% | |
| 75 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 76 | 7% | 35% | |
| 77 | 9% | 29% | |
| 78 | 6% | 20% | |
| 79 | 5% | 14% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 82 | 3% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 5% | 94% | |
| 67 | 2% | 90% | |
| 68 | 5% | 87% | |
| 69 | 15% | 83% | |
| 70 | 8% | 68% | Median |
| 71 | 7% | 60% | |
| 72 | 13% | 53% | |
| 73 | 8% | 40% | |
| 74 | 5% | 32% | |
| 75 | 11% | 27% | |
| 76 | 4% | 16% | |
| 77 | 6% | 12% | |
| 78 | 2% | 6% | |
| 79 | 3% | 4% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | |
| 63 | 5% | 89% | |
| 64 | 13% | 84% | |
| 65 | 5% | 71% | |
| 66 | 9% | 66% | |
| 67 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 68 | 9% | 41% | |
| 69 | 6% | 32% | |
| 70 | 6% | 26% | |
| 71 | 5% | 20% | |
| 72 | 3% | 15% | |
| 73 | 9% | 12% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 54 | 2% | 97% | |
| 55 | 2% | 96% | |
| 56 | 5% | 94% | |
| 57 | 7% | 89% | |
| 58 | 19% | 83% | |
| 59 | 6% | 64% | Median |
| 60 | 11% | 58% | |
| 61 | 9% | 47% | |
| 62 | 9% | 38% | |
| 63 | 7% | 30% | |
| 64 | 10% | 22% | |
| 65 | 5% | 12% | |
| 66 | 3% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 5% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 52 | 2% | 95% | |
| 53 | 3% | 93% | |
| 54 | 6% | 90% | |
| 55 | 6% | 84% | |
| 56 | 19% | 78% | |
| 57 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 58 | 9% | 51% | |
| 59 | 7% | 43% | |
| 60 | 8% | 36% | |
| 61 | 9% | 28% | |
| 62 | 8% | 19% | |
| 63 | 5% | 11% | |
| 64 | 3% | 6% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 54 | 4% | 96% | |
| 55 | 6% | 92% | |
| 56 | 6% | 86% | |
| 57 | 9% | 80% | |
| 58 | 29% | 71% | |
| 59 | 14% | 42% | Median |
| 60 | 6% | 28% | Last Result |
| 61 | 9% | 23% | |
| 62 | 5% | 14% | |
| 63 | 5% | 9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 4% | 96% | |
| 42 | 4% | 93% | |
| 43 | 5% | 88% | |
| 44 | 8% | 83% | |
| 45 | 7% | 75% | |
| 46 | 13% | 68% | |
| 47 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 48 | 16% | 44% | |
| 49 | 7% | 29% | |
| 50 | 4% | 21% | |
| 51 | 10% | 17% | |
| 52 | 2% | 7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 36 | 3% | 93% | |
| 37 | 6% | 90% | |
| 38 | 4% | 84% | |
| 39 | 8% | 80% | |
| 40 | 9% | 72% | |
| 41 | 10% | 63% | |
| 42 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 43 | 7% | 36% | |
| 44 | 13% | 29% | |
| 45 | 5% | 16% | |
| 46 | 4% | 11% | |
| 47 | 4% | 8% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 27 April–3 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 958
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%