Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 4–5 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.2% 21.0–28.0%
Høyre 25.0% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–50 40–51 39–53
Høyre 45 44 40–47 39–49 37–50 36–52
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–31 23–32 23–33 21–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–21 15–21 14–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 12–17 12–17 11–18 10–19
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 6% 97%  
42 10% 91%  
43 12% 81%  
44 16% 70%  
45 11% 54% Median
46 13% 42%  
47 11% 30%  
48 9% 19%  
49 4% 10% Last Result
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 2% 97%  
39 3% 95%  
40 11% 93%  
41 13% 82%  
42 7% 69%  
43 9% 62%  
44 13% 53% Median
45 9% 40% Last Result
46 13% 31%  
47 9% 18%  
48 3% 9%  
49 3% 6%  
50 1.0% 3%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 1.0% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.8%  
22 1.1% 99.4%  
23 3% 98%  
24 7% 95%  
25 8% 88%  
26 23% 80%  
27 15% 56% Median
28 9% 42%  
29 10% 33%  
30 7% 23%  
31 8% 15%  
32 3% 7%  
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.7% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.8%  
14 2% 99.1%  
15 6% 97%  
16 12% 91%  
17 20% 78%  
18 17% 59% Median
19 20% 42%  
20 8% 22%  
21 10% 14%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 1.1%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.1% Last Result
12 8% 97%  
13 20% 89%  
14 19% 69%  
15 24% 51% Median
16 16% 27%  
17 7% 11%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.9% 1.3%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 35% 99.5%  
3 0% 65%  
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 1.0% 65%  
7 18% 63% Median
8 25% 46%  
9 13% 20%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 42% 99.9%  
3 16% 58% Median
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 1.1% 42%  
7 14% 41%  
8 19% 27% Last Result
9 6% 8%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 7% 99.9%  
2 6% 93%  
3 46% 86% Median
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 1.4% 41%  
7 10% 39%  
8 22% 29% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 49% 93% Median
3 3% 44%  
4 0.2% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0.8% 41%  
7 18% 40%  
8 17% 22%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 93–103 92–105 89–107 87–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 97 99.9% 91–103 90–104 88–105 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 96 99.8% 89–102 89–103 88–104 86–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98.7% 88–98 86–99 86–101 83–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 93% 86–96 83–98 82–100 81–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 77% 82–93 80–93 80–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 82 25% 75–87 74–90 74–90 71–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 5% 72–83 71–84 69–87 68–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 76 0.8% 71–80 68–82 67–83 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0.1% 67–78 66–79 66–80 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 72 0% 65–76 64–78 62–79 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 62–72 59–73 58–73 57–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 57–67 55–68 54–69 52–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–64 54–65 54–66 52–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 48–58 47–59 46–61 44–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 31–43 31–45 30–45 28–49

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 1.3% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 98.5%  
89 1.1% 98%  
90 0.9% 97%  
91 0.7% 96%  
92 5% 96%  
93 2% 91%  
94 9% 89%  
95 3% 80% Median
96 7% 77%  
97 9% 70%  
98 9% 60%  
99 6% 51%  
100 12% 46%  
101 7% 34%  
102 9% 27%  
103 8% 18%  
104 5% 10%  
105 1.3% 5%  
106 0.8% 4%  
107 1.4% 3% Last Result
108 1.2% 2%  
109 0.4% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.3% 99.5%  
88 2% 99.2%  
89 0.9% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 4% 94%  
92 2% 90%  
93 8% 87%  
94 6% 79%  
95 9% 73%  
96 9% 65% Median
97 11% 55%  
98 5% 44%  
99 6% 40%  
100 9% 34%  
101 8% 25%  
102 4% 17%  
103 5% 13%  
104 5% 8%  
105 1.2% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.7% 1.1%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8% Majority
86 0.5% 99.5%  
87 0.6% 99.1%  
88 2% 98% Last Result
89 6% 96%  
90 3% 90%  
91 5% 87%  
92 4% 82% Median
93 7% 78%  
94 9% 71%  
95 4% 62%  
96 8% 58%  
97 7% 50%  
98 12% 42%  
99 11% 30%  
100 5% 19%  
101 2% 14%  
102 4% 12%  
103 3% 8%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.2% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.1%  
107 0.2% 0.6%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.3%  
85 1.0% 98.7% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 4% 95%  
88 4% 91%  
89 10% 88%  
90 4% 78%  
91 10% 74%  
92 7% 64%  
93 16% 57%  
94 6% 41% Median
95 9% 35%  
96 8% 26%  
97 5% 18%  
98 7% 13%  
99 2% 6%  
100 1.0% 4%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
81 1.1% 99.5%  
82 3% 98%  
83 0.8% 96%  
84 2% 95%  
85 2% 93% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 7% 87%  
88 7% 80%  
89 5% 73% Median
90 9% 67%  
91 11% 58%  
92 6% 47%  
93 6% 40%  
94 7% 34%  
95 11% 27%  
96 8% 16%  
97 2% 8%  
98 2% 6%  
99 2% 5%  
100 1.2% 3%  
101 0.4% 1.4%  
102 0.5% 1.0%  
103 0.3% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 2% 99.0% Last Result
80 5% 98%  
81 3% 93%  
82 5% 90%  
83 3% 85%  
84 5% 82%  
85 14% 77% Majority
86 8% 63%  
87 7% 55% Median
88 9% 48%  
89 17% 39%  
90 5% 22%  
91 4% 17%  
92 3% 13%  
93 8% 10%  
94 1.2% 3%  
95 0.7% 1.5%  
96 0.3% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.8% 99.4%  
73 1.0% 98.6%  
74 4% 98%  
75 5% 93%  
76 5% 88%  
77 7% 83% Last Result, Median
78 3% 76%  
79 5% 73%  
80 7% 68%  
81 9% 61%  
82 5% 52%  
83 16% 47%  
84 6% 31%  
85 5% 25% Majority
86 6% 20%  
87 4% 14%  
88 2% 10%  
89 3% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.4%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 2% 99.4%  
70 1.4% 97%  
71 1.4% 96%  
72 6% 95%  
73 10% 89%  
74 8% 79%  
75 7% 71% Median
76 10% 64% Last Result
77 7% 54%  
78 8% 47%  
79 9% 39%  
80 5% 29%  
81 10% 25%  
82 5% 15%  
83 4% 10%  
84 2% 7%  
85 1.1% 5% Majority
86 0.4% 3%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.3% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.6%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 0.4% 99.1%  
67 1.3% 98.8%  
68 3% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 93% Median
71 7% 91%  
72 6% 83%  
73 9% 77%  
74 9% 68%  
75 5% 59%  
76 16% 53%  
77 6% 37%  
78 9% 30%  
79 4% 21%  
80 9% 17%  
81 2% 8%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.8% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.8% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 1.5% 99.3%  
66 5% 98%  
67 3% 93%  
68 5% 90% Last Result
69 4% 85%  
70 12% 80%  
71 8% 68%  
72 9% 60% Median
73 15% 52%  
74 9% 37%  
75 5% 28%  
76 8% 22%  
77 3% 14%  
78 4% 11%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.3% 1.0%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 98%  
63 0.8% 97%  
64 1.3% 96%  
65 6% 95%  
66 6% 89%  
67 4% 83%  
68 8% 79% Median
69 9% 71%  
70 6% 62%  
71 6% 56%  
72 11% 51%  
73 9% 40%  
74 9% 31%  
75 5% 22%  
76 8% 17%  
77 2% 9%  
78 4% 7%  
79 0.9% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 1.1% 1.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 94%  
61 2% 92%  
62 7% 90%  
63 9% 83%  
64 6% 74%  
65 10% 68% Median
66 10% 58%  
67 8% 48%  
68 9% 40%  
69 9% 30%  
70 5% 21%  
71 5% 16%  
72 5% 11%  
73 5% 6%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.9% 99.6%  
53 0.5% 98.8%  
54 0.9% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 94%  
57 7% 91%  
58 5% 84%  
59 10% 79%  
60 10% 69%  
61 8% 59%  
62 5% 51% Median
63 11% 46%  
64 12% 35%  
65 7% 23%  
66 5% 16%  
67 6% 11%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 1.0% 1.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.8%  
53 1.3% 99.2%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 94%  
56 11% 89%  
57 6% 79%  
58 12% 72%  
59 16% 60%  
60 5% 44% Last Result, Median
61 8% 39%  
62 9% 31%  
63 8% 21%  
64 8% 14%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.3% 1.3%  
68 0.6% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 1.3% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 5% 95%  
48 2% 90%  
49 4% 88%  
50 11% 84% Median
51 13% 73%  
52 9% 60%  
53 7% 51%  
54 5% 44%  
55 11% 39%  
56 7% 28%  
57 11% 22%  
58 3% 11%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 0.7% 3% Last Result
62 0.4% 2%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 1.4% 99.0%  
30 2% 98%  
31 7% 96%  
32 8% 89%  
33 6% 81% Median
34 5% 75%  
35 10% 69% Last Result
36 10% 59%  
37 11% 49%  
38 6% 38%  
39 6% 32%  
40 4% 26%  
41 5% 22%  
42 2% 16%  
43 4% 14%  
44 2% 10%  
45 5% 7%  
46 0.6% 2%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.7%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations