Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 5–10 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.0–24.1% 18.3–25.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.3% 16.8–19.9% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 40 35–42 34–43 34–44 33–47
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 38–44 37–44 36–44 34–45
Senterpartiet 19 33 31–37 30–38 30–39 28–40
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 16–23 15–23 15–24 13–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–9 2–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–8 2–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.2% 99.9%  
34 6% 98.7%  
35 3% 93%  
36 12% 89%  
37 8% 77%  
38 9% 70%  
39 10% 61%  
40 18% 51% Median
41 12% 33%  
42 11% 21%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.6% 2% Last Result
46 0.2% 1.1%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.6%  
35 0.9% 99.1%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 8% 92%  
39 12% 85%  
40 25% 73% Median
41 19% 48%  
42 6% 30%  
43 7% 23%  
44 15% 16%  
45 1.1% 1.5%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.7%  
29 1.3% 99.1%  
30 4% 98%  
31 15% 94%  
32 13% 79%  
33 18% 66% Median
34 11% 48%  
35 8% 37%  
36 13% 29%  
37 8% 16%  
38 3% 8%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 2% 99.4%  
15 4% 98%  
16 6% 94%  
17 16% 88%  
18 15% 72%  
19 19% 56% Median
20 14% 37%  
21 10% 23%  
22 2% 13%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.3% 1.0%  
26 0.7% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 8% 98% Last Result
12 7% 90%  
13 20% 82%  
14 21% 63% Median
15 17% 42%  
16 17% 25%  
17 5% 9%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.8% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100% Last Result
2 23% 99.0%  
3 5% 76%  
4 1.0% 71%  
5 0% 70%  
6 2% 70%  
7 27% 68% Median
8 24% 41%  
9 13% 16%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 16% 97%  
3 18% 81%  
4 0% 63%  
5 0% 63%  
6 6% 63%  
7 26% 57% Median
8 18% 30% Last Result
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 46% 98.9%  
3 0% 53%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0.1% 53%  
6 3% 53%  
7 30% 50% Median
8 13% 20%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 60% 99.8% Median
3 12% 40%  
4 2% 28%  
5 0% 26%  
6 6% 26%  
7 9% 20%  
8 9% 11% Last Result
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–106 95–109 94–109 92–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 94–106 92–107 92–108 89–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 95–104 93–106 92–108 88–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.3% 90–99 89–100 87–101 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 99.2% 89–98 88–100 86–101 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 91% 85–93 84–93 82–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 68% 80–92 78–93 77–94 75–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 14% 75–85 73–86 73–87 70–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 74 0.3% 68–79 67–81 65–81 62–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 71–78 70–80 69–80 66–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 67 0% 62–72 61–74 60–75 57–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 56–67 55–69 55–70 51–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 58 0% 53–63 52–65 51–67 49–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 52–58 50–59 49–60 47–61
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 44–52 43–53 42–55 41–58
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 43 0% 38–48 36–50 36–51 35–53

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.8% 99.7%  
93 0.9% 99.0%  
94 2% 98%  
95 5% 96%  
96 2% 91%  
97 12% 89%  
98 6% 77%  
99 10% 70%  
100 6% 61%  
101 7% 54% Median
102 12% 47%  
103 7% 36%  
104 12% 29%  
105 3% 17%  
106 4% 13%  
107 2% 10% Last Result
108 2% 7%  
109 3% 5%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.8% 2%  
112 0.2% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.4%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 0.6% 99.1%  
92 4% 98%  
93 2% 94%  
94 5% 93%  
95 3% 88%  
96 3% 85%  
97 7% 82%  
98 7% 75%  
99 8% 68%  
100 8% 60%  
101 9% 52% Median
102 11% 43%  
103 8% 32%  
104 7% 24%  
105 4% 16%  
106 3% 12%  
107 5% 9%  
108 2% 4%  
109 0.7% 2%  
110 1.0% 1.2%  
111 0% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.5%  
89 0.2% 99.5%  
90 0.5% 99.3%  
91 0.8% 98.8%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 96%  
94 4% 95%  
95 4% 91%  
96 4% 87%  
97 11% 83%  
98 13% 72%  
99 11% 59%  
100 6% 48%  
101 6% 42% Median
102 15% 37%  
103 9% 22%  
104 5% 13%  
105 2% 7%  
106 2% 5%  
107 0.8% 3%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.9% 1.1%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.3% Majority
86 0.5% 98.6%  
87 0.9% 98%  
88 1.0% 97%  
89 2% 96%  
90 5% 94%  
91 6% 89%  
92 8% 83%  
93 8% 74%  
94 6% 66% Median
95 18% 60%  
96 16% 42%  
97 8% 26%  
98 6% 18%  
99 2% 12%  
100 6% 10%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.1% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.5%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 0.9% 99.2% Majority
86 0.9% 98%  
87 1.2% 97%  
88 6% 96%  
89 5% 90%  
90 5% 85%  
91 7% 80%  
92 13% 73%  
93 9% 61%  
94 10% 52% Median
95 20% 42%  
96 7% 22%  
97 3% 15%  
98 3% 12%  
99 3% 9%  
100 2% 6%  
101 3% 4%  
102 0.4% 1.1%  
103 0.3% 0.7%  
104 0.3% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
80 0.3% 99.5%  
81 1.0% 99.2%  
82 1.1% 98%  
83 1.4% 97%  
84 5% 96%  
85 6% 91% Majority
86 9% 85%  
87 9% 76% Median
88 23% 67%  
89 7% 45%  
90 12% 38%  
91 7% 26%  
92 8% 19%  
93 5% 10%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.0%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 99.5%  
77 4% 99.0% Last Result
78 2% 95%  
79 2% 94%  
80 5% 91%  
81 4% 86%  
82 2% 83%  
83 5% 80%  
84 8% 76%  
85 8% 68% Majority
86 13% 60%  
87 6% 47% Median
88 6% 40%  
89 5% 34%  
90 14% 29%  
91 3% 15%  
92 3% 12%  
93 5% 9%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.5% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.3%  
97 0.2% 0.7%  
98 0.5% 0.5%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.9% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 4% 98%  
74 3% 94%  
75 5% 91%  
76 7% 86% Last Result
77 5% 79%  
78 7% 74%  
79 15% 67%  
80 5% 52% Median
81 6% 48%  
82 10% 41%  
83 11% 31%  
84 5% 19%  
85 6% 14% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.8% 0.9%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.5%  
64 0.7% 99.3%  
65 2% 98.6%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 5% 95%  
68 8% 90%  
69 3% 82%  
70 8% 79%  
71 6% 71%  
72 5% 65%  
73 7% 60%  
74 14% 54%  
75 7% 40% Median
76 6% 32%  
77 11% 26%  
78 2% 16%  
79 4% 14%  
80 2% 10%  
81 5% 7%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.4%  
68 1.1% 98.9% Last Result
69 2% 98%  
70 5% 96%  
71 9% 91%  
72 10% 81%  
73 10% 71% Median
74 13% 62%  
75 10% 49%  
76 10% 38%  
77 13% 28%  
78 6% 15%  
79 3% 9%  
80 4% 5%  
81 1.0% 1.4%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.3%  
59 1.5% 99.1%  
60 2% 98%  
61 6% 96%  
62 3% 90%  
63 5% 88%  
64 8% 83%  
65 9% 75%  
66 10% 66%  
67 12% 57%  
68 7% 44% Median
69 6% 38%  
70 8% 32%  
71 8% 23%  
72 7% 16%  
73 2% 9%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.3%  
53 0.6% 99.0%  
54 0.4% 98%  
55 6% 98%  
56 3% 92%  
57 5% 89%  
58 6% 85%  
59 7% 78%  
60 14% 71%  
61 9% 57% Median
62 8% 48%  
63 12% 40%  
64 5% 29%  
65 7% 24%  
66 5% 17%  
67 4% 12%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 1.1% 1.5%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 1.3% 98.9%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 12% 94%  
54 4% 82%  
55 5% 78%  
56 10% 74%  
57 5% 64%  
58 13% 58%  
59 11% 46% Median
60 10% 35%  
61 5% 25%  
62 7% 20%  
63 5% 13%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 6%  
66 1.2% 4%  
67 1.0% 3%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 0.2% 1.1%  
70 0.9% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 0.9% 99.3%  
49 1.3% 98%  
50 3% 97%  
51 3% 94%  
52 9% 91%  
53 13% 82%  
54 11% 69% Median
55 19% 58%  
56 16% 39%  
57 11% 23%  
58 7% 12%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 7% 93%  
45 8% 85%  
46 8% 78%  
47 7% 70%  
48 12% 63%  
49 20% 51% Median
50 9% 31%  
51 4% 22%  
52 10% 18%  
53 4% 8%  
54 1.3% 5%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 0.5% 2%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 1.0% 99.6% Last Result
36 4% 98.6%  
37 4% 95%  
38 5% 91%  
39 4% 86%  
40 4% 82%  
41 15% 78%  
42 8% 63% Median
43 8% 55%  
44 16% 47%  
45 10% 31%  
46 4% 21%  
47 5% 17%  
48 4% 13%  
49 2% 9%  
50 2% 7%  
51 4% 5%  
52 0.3% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

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