Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 13 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.6% 23.8–27.5% 23.3–28.0% 22.9–28.5% 22.1–29.4%
Høyre 25.0% 22.0% 20.3–23.8% 19.8–24.3% 19.4–24.7% 18.7–25.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.2% 14.8–17.9% 14.4–18.3% 14.0–18.7% 13.4–19.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 44–48 43–50 42–51 40–54
Høyre 45 37 35–39 34–41 34–43 33–46
Senterpartiet 19 32 27–35 26–35 26–35 24–36
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–18 14–19 13–20 12–21
Fremskrittspartiet 27 15 13–17 12–18 12–19 11–20
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 8 7–8 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–7 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 0.9% 99.4%  
42 2% 98.5%  
43 4% 96%  
44 28% 92%  
45 17% 64% Median
46 20% 47%  
47 7% 26%  
48 10% 19%  
49 3% 9% Last Result
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.4% 2%  
53 0.4% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.8%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.0% 99.9%  
34 8% 98.9%  
35 11% 91%  
36 21% 80%  
37 14% 58% Median
38 33% 45%  
39 4% 12%  
40 1.4% 8%  
41 2% 7%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.6% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.8%  
24 0.4% 99.6%  
25 1.2% 99.2%  
26 4% 98%  
27 7% 94%  
28 10% 87%  
29 7% 78%  
30 8% 70%  
31 5% 62%  
32 17% 57% Median
33 12% 39%  
34 14% 27%  
35 11% 12%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100% Last Result
12 0.8% 99.8%  
13 3% 99.0%  
14 7% 96%  
15 23% 90%  
16 21% 66% Median
17 28% 46%  
18 11% 17%  
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 7% 98%  
13 9% 91%  
14 17% 82%  
15 25% 65% Median
16 18% 40%  
17 12% 22%  
18 6% 10%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 5% 99.8%  
3 1.5% 95%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.1% 93%  
7 15% 93%  
8 40% 78% Median
9 25% 38%  
10 8% 13%  
11 3% 5%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100% Last Result
2 8% 99.6%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0.9% 92%  
7 27% 91%  
8 55% 64% Median
9 6% 9%  
10 2% 3%  
11 1.4% 1.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 5% 97%  
3 40% 92%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 0.3% 51%  
7 18% 51% Median
8 24% 33% Last Result
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 79% 97% Median
3 1.5% 18%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 1.1% 17%  
7 12% 16%  
8 3% 4% Last Result
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 109 100% 104–112 102–113 101–113 98–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 106 100% 103–111 101–112 100–113 97–116
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 101 100% 97–105 95–106 94–108 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 101 100% 97–104 95–104 92–105 89–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 93 99.1% 89–96 88–97 86–98 83–100
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 92 98% 88–95 87–97 85–98 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 90 95% 86–94 84–95 83–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 82 28% 79–86 77–87 75–88 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 77 0.5% 73–80 72–80 70–82 68–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 68 0% 65–72 65–74 64–77 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–69 56–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 60 0% 57–65 56–67 56–68 54–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 55 0% 52–59 51–60 50–63 49–66
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 53 0% 48–56 48–57 47–59 46–63
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 45 0% 42–50 41–51 41–52 39–56
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 39 0% 34–44 33–46 32–47 30–49

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.7%  
99 0.4% 99.4%  
100 0.9% 99.0%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 3% 95%  
104 2% 92%  
105 3% 90%  
106 8% 87%  
107 11% 79%  
108 12% 68%  
109 13% 56% Median
110 10% 43%  
111 22% 33%  
112 5% 11%  
113 3% 5%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.7% 1.0%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.8% 99.3%  
99 0.6% 98%  
100 1.2% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 3% 94%  
103 6% 91%  
104 7% 85%  
105 11% 79%  
106 23% 68%  
107 9% 45%  
108 11% 36% Median
109 10% 25%  
110 6% 16%  
111 4% 10%  
112 4% 7%  
113 1.3% 3%  
114 0.6% 2%  
115 0.4% 1.1%  
116 0.6% 0.7%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.5% 99.5%  
93 0.6% 99.0%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 97%  
96 1.4% 94%  
97 4% 92%  
98 8% 89%  
99 6% 81%  
100 12% 75%  
101 14% 63% Median
102 11% 49%  
103 21% 38%  
104 7% 17%  
105 4% 10%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.2% 4%  
108 1.4% 3%  
109 0.9% 1.5%  
110 0.3% 0.6%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 1.0% 99.3%  
91 0.5% 98%  
92 0.4% 98%  
93 1.2% 97%  
94 0.7% 96%  
95 2% 96%  
96 2% 94%  
97 4% 91%  
98 6% 87%  
99 12% 81%  
100 12% 68%  
101 16% 56% Median
102 14% 40%  
103 10% 26%  
104 13% 16%  
105 2% 3%  
106 1.0% 1.4%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.3% 99.5%  
85 0.5% 99.1% Majority
86 1.2% 98.7%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 96%  
89 5% 94%  
90 4% 89%  
91 6% 85%  
92 15% 78%  
93 16% 63% Median
94 16% 48%  
95 11% 32%  
96 14% 21%  
97 3% 6%  
98 2% 4%  
99 0.9% 2%  
100 0.6% 1.0%  
101 0.3% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.4%  
84 0.7% 99.1%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 1.3% 97%  
87 3% 95%  
88 6% 92%  
89 5% 86%  
90 15% 81%  
91 11% 66%  
92 17% 54%  
93 7% 37% Median
94 13% 30%  
95 9% 17%  
96 3% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.1% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.1%  
101 0.4% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 0.4% 99.3%  
82 0.7% 98.9%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 4% 93%  
87 7% 89%  
88 13% 82%  
89 13% 70%  
90 12% 57%  
91 9% 44%  
92 4% 36% Median
93 10% 31%  
94 12% 21%  
95 4% 9%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.1%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 1.0% 99.1%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 1.1% 97% Last Result
77 1.4% 96%  
78 4% 94%  
79 11% 90%  
80 8% 79%  
81 12% 71%  
82 9% 59%  
83 13% 50%  
84 8% 36% Median
85 14% 28% Majority
86 8% 14%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
69 0.7% 99.1%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 5% 95%  
73 2% 90%  
74 2% 88%  
75 8% 86%  
76 14% 78%  
77 21% 65% Median
78 20% 44%  
79 10% 24%  
80 9% 14%  
81 2% 5%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.6%  
64 2% 98.6%  
65 13% 97%  
66 10% 84%  
67 14% 74%  
68 16% 60%  
69 12% 44% Median
70 12% 32%  
71 6% 19%  
72 4% 13%  
73 2% 9%  
74 2% 6%  
75 0.7% 4%  
76 1.2% 4%  
77 0.4% 3%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.6%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 6% 96%  
59 14% 90%  
60 10% 77% Last Result
61 14% 67% Median
62 15% 53%  
63 12% 38%  
64 6% 26%  
65 9% 19%  
66 4% 10%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.0% 3%  
70 1.0% 1.5%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.0%  
56 3% 98%  
57 5% 95%  
58 22% 89%  
59 10% 67%  
60 13% 57%  
61 12% 44% Median
62 11% 32%  
63 8% 21%  
64 3% 13%  
65 2% 10%  
66 3% 8%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.3% 3%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.0%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.4% 99.6%  
50 3% 98%  
51 4% 95%  
52 9% 91%  
53 11% 82%  
54 8% 71% Median
55 26% 63%  
56 12% 37%  
57 8% 24%  
58 6% 17%  
59 3% 10%  
60 3% 7%  
61 1.0% 4%  
62 0.8% 3%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.3% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.2%  
66 0.6% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.9%  
47 3% 99.1%  
48 9% 96%  
49 7% 88%  
50 9% 81%  
51 13% 72%  
52 8% 58% Median
53 22% 50%  
54 10% 28%  
55 7% 18%  
56 5% 12%  
57 2% 6%  
58 2% 5%  
59 0.8% 3%  
60 0.7% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.8%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.5%  
41 4% 98.5%  
42 8% 95%  
43 27% 87%  
44 8% 60%  
45 11% 52%  
46 7% 41% Median
47 9% 33%  
48 7% 25%  
49 6% 18%  
50 6% 12%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.1% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.5%  
55 0.3% 0.9%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 98.9%  
32 0.8% 98%  
33 6% 97%  
34 2% 91%  
35 4% 89% Last Result
36 4% 86%  
37 18% 81%  
38 6% 63%  
39 10% 58%  
40 10% 48%  
41 2% 37% Median
42 8% 35%  
43 9% 28%  
44 11% 19%  
45 2% 8%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations