Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 11–16 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Høyre 25.0% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.0–24.4% 19.6–24.8% 18.9–25.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 43–49 41–50 41–51 39–54
Høyre 45 39 36–43 35–44 34–45 33–46
Senterpartiet 19 27 23–30 23–31 22–32 20–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–24 17–25 17–25 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–11 7–11 2–12 2–13
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.9%  
40 1.1% 99.1%  
41 3% 98%  
42 4% 95%  
43 7% 90%  
44 23% 83%  
45 14% 60% Median
46 14% 47%  
47 12% 33%  
48 4% 21%  
49 10% 17% Last Result
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 3% 99.2%  
35 5% 96%  
36 11% 91%  
37 14% 80%  
38 8% 67%  
39 12% 58% Median
40 18% 46%  
41 8% 28%  
42 10% 20%  
43 3% 10%  
44 2% 7%  
45 3% 5% Last Result
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 1.0% 99.3%  
22 2% 98%  
23 9% 96%  
24 5% 87%  
25 10% 81%  
26 17% 71%  
27 17% 54% Median
28 18% 37%  
29 9% 19%  
30 2% 10%  
31 4% 8%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.8% 1.2%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.2%  
18 6% 95%  
19 14% 89%  
20 17% 74%  
21 17% 57% Median
22 10% 40%  
23 13% 31%  
24 10% 17%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.4% 99.9%  
10 5% 98.5%  
11 13% 94% Last Result
12 19% 80%  
13 31% 61% Median
14 16% 30%  
15 9% 14%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 4% 100%  
3 0.6% 96%  
4 0.1% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0.1% 96%  
7 10% 96%  
8 19% 85%  
9 36% 66% Median
10 16% 30%  
11 10% 14%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 18% 99.9%  
3 0% 81%  
4 0% 81%  
5 0% 81%  
6 0.4% 81%  
7 8% 81%  
8 42% 73% Median
9 19% 30%  
10 9% 12%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 15% 99.9%  
2 7% 85%  
3 35% 78% Median
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0.2% 43%  
7 20% 43%  
8 18% 23% Last Result
9 5% 5%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 75% 97% Median
3 4% 22%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 2% 18%  
7 10% 16%  
8 4% 6% Last Result
9 1.2% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 101 100% 95–106 94–108 94–109 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 94–103 92–104 91–106 89–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 99.7% 90–100 88–101 87–102 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 99.2% 90–99 88–99 87–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 86–97 85–99 85–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 69% 80–90 79–92 78–93 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 58% 81–89 79–90 78–91 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 2% 72–81 70–83 69–84 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 76 2% 72–83 70–84 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0% 68–76 67–76 66–78 64–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 68 0% 63–74 61–75 60–75 59–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 58–68 57–69 56–70 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 55–65 55–67 54–68 52–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–65 51–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 46 0% 43–52 41–54 40–54 39–56
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 29–40 28–42 27–43 26–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.7%  
92 0.4% 99.3%  
93 0.7% 98.9%  
94 5% 98%  
95 4% 93%  
96 4% 89%  
97 3% 85%  
98 6% 82%  
99 7% 77%  
100 16% 69%  
101 9% 54%  
102 4% 45% Median
103 6% 41%  
104 13% 35%  
105 10% 22%  
106 5% 12%  
107 2% 7%  
108 2% 5%  
109 3% 3%  
110 0.5% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
89 0.3% 99.5%  
90 0.7% 99.3%  
91 1.4% 98.6%  
92 4% 97%  
93 3% 94%  
94 6% 91%  
95 6% 85%  
96 5% 79%  
97 10% 74% Median
98 8% 64%  
99 13% 56%  
100 14% 43%  
101 12% 29%  
102 5% 17%  
103 4% 12%  
104 4% 8%  
105 1.5% 4%  
106 0.8% 3%  
107 2% 2%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.7% Majority
86 1.4% 99.5%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 3% 95%  
90 5% 92%  
91 9% 87%  
92 14% 78% Median
93 6% 63%  
94 11% 57%  
95 7% 46%  
96 7% 39%  
97 11% 32%  
98 4% 21%  
99 4% 17%  
100 4% 13%  
101 5% 9%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.2% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.6% 99.2% Majority
86 0.9% 98.6%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 4% 94%  
90 4% 90%  
91 9% 87%  
92 16% 77%  
93 12% 61%  
94 7% 50% Median
95 5% 42%  
96 11% 37%  
97 11% 27%  
98 5% 16%  
99 6% 10%  
100 3% 4%  
101 0.9% 2%  
102 0.4% 0.8%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.5%  
84 0.6% 99.0%  
85 4% 98% Majority
86 4% 94%  
87 5% 90%  
88 5% 85%  
89 3% 81%  
90 8% 78%  
91 7% 69%  
92 9% 62%  
93 10% 53% Median
94 11% 43%  
95 10% 32%  
96 10% 22%  
97 4% 12%  
98 3% 8%  
99 2% 5%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.4% 0.9%  
102 0.4% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.7%  
77 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
78 1.2% 98.7%  
79 6% 97%  
80 3% 92%  
81 5% 89%  
82 4% 83%  
83 3% 79%  
84 7% 76% Median
85 11% 69% Majority
86 14% 58%  
87 13% 44%  
88 11% 30%  
89 7% 19%  
90 3% 13%  
91 3% 10%  
92 3% 6%  
93 1.1% 3%  
94 1.5% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 1.0% 99.1%  
78 1.1% 98%  
79 3% 97% Last Result
80 2% 94%  
81 5% 92%  
82 8% 88%  
83 8% 80%  
84 14% 72%  
85 14% 58% Median, Majority
86 10% 44%  
87 11% 34%  
88 9% 23%  
89 7% 15%  
90 3% 8%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.4%  
69 2% 99.1%  
70 4% 97%  
71 2% 93%  
72 3% 91%  
73 7% 87%  
74 4% 81%  
75 7% 77% Median
76 11% 69% Last Result
77 12% 59%  
78 11% 47%  
79 15% 35%  
80 8% 21%  
81 3% 13%  
82 3% 9%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 2% 99.1%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 4% 92%  
73 10% 88%  
74 10% 78% Median
75 11% 68%  
76 10% 57%  
77 9% 47%  
78 7% 38%  
79 8% 31%  
80 3% 22%  
81 5% 19%  
82 5% 15%  
83 4% 10%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.7% 99.0%  
66 3% 98%  
67 3% 95%  
68 6% 93% Last Result
69 5% 87%  
70 11% 82%  
71 9% 71%  
72 17% 62% Median
73 9% 44%  
74 6% 36%  
75 11% 29%  
76 14% 19%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.2% 3%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.8% 1.1%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 3% 99.4%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 95%  
63 5% 93%  
64 10% 88%  
65 13% 78% Median
66 6% 65%  
67 4% 59%  
68 9% 55%  
69 16% 46%  
70 7% 31%  
71 6% 23%  
72 3% 18%  
73 4% 15%  
74 4% 11%  
75 5% 7%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.1%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.7%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 6% 94%  
59 5% 88%  
60 6% 84%  
61 9% 78%  
62 13% 69% Median
63 13% 56%  
64 8% 43%  
65 6% 35%  
66 9% 29%  
67 9% 21%  
68 5% 12%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 5%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.9% 1.5%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 2% 98%  
55 7% 96%  
56 7% 89%  
57 8% 81%  
58 6% 73%  
59 11% 67%  
60 9% 56% Median
61 13% 47%  
62 7% 34%  
63 6% 27%  
64 5% 21%  
65 8% 16%  
66 3% 8%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.3% 0.9%  
70 0.5% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 1.4% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 4% 96%  
55 6% 92%  
56 10% 85%  
57 14% 75%  
58 11% 61% Median
59 13% 49%  
60 14% 36% Last Result
61 8% 22%  
62 4% 14%  
63 5% 9%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.3% 3%  
66 0.6% 1.3%  
67 0.4% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 3% 98%  
41 3% 95%  
42 2% 92%  
43 11% 90%  
44 10% 79% Median
45 5% 69%  
46 15% 64%  
47 10% 49%  
48 5% 39%  
49 11% 33%  
50 7% 22%  
51 3% 15%  
52 5% 12%  
53 2% 7%  
54 4% 5%  
55 0.7% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 6% 97%  
29 4% 91%  
30 7% 87%  
31 8% 80%  
32 8% 72% Median
33 7% 64%  
34 9% 56%  
35 6% 47% Last Result
36 12% 41%  
37 9% 29%  
38 4% 20%  
39 5% 16%  
40 4% 11%  
41 3% 8%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.5% 3%  
44 0.9% 1.2%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations