Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 18–25 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.0% 23.3–26.9% 22.8–27.4% 22.4–27.9% 21.6–28.8%
Høyre 25.0% 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.5–26.0% 21.1–26.5% 20.3–27.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.2% 13.9–18.6% 13.3–19.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.9% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.3–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Venstre 4.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–49 42–50 41–52 40–54
Høyre 45 42 39–47 38–48 37–48 36–51
Senterpartiet 19 31 27–34 26–35 26–35 24–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 9–18
Rødt 1 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 0–7
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 6% 97%  
43 13% 92%  
44 13% 79%  
45 12% 66%  
46 20% 54% Median
47 15% 35%  
48 7% 20%  
49 6% 13% Last Result
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 5% 97%  
39 6% 92%  
40 18% 86%  
41 13% 68%  
42 10% 55% Median
43 11% 45%  
44 7% 34%  
45 9% 28% Last Result
46 3% 18%  
47 6% 15%  
48 6% 9%  
49 1.5% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.5% 99.6%  
25 1.4% 99.0%  
26 5% 98%  
27 8% 92%  
28 7% 84%  
29 14% 77%  
30 12% 63%  
31 18% 51% Median
32 10% 33%  
33 6% 24%  
34 10% 17%  
35 6% 7%  
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 3% 98%  
15 7% 95%  
16 16% 88%  
17 13% 72%  
18 30% 60% Median
19 16% 30%  
20 8% 14%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.7%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.3%  
11 13% 95% Last Result
12 12% 82%  
13 29% 70% Median
14 18% 42%  
15 13% 24%  
16 8% 11%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 6% 100%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0.5% 94%  
7 15% 93%  
8 23% 78%  
9 33% 55% Median
10 13% 22%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 14% 99.8%  
2 17% 86%  
3 41% 69% Median
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 1.3% 27%  
7 15% 26%  
8 8% 11% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 17% 98.8%  
2 77% 82% Median
3 2% 4%  
4 0.1% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 1.1% 1.4%  
8 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 76% 96% Last Result, Median
2 17% 19%  
3 1.0% 3%  
4 0.2% 2%  
5 0% 1.4%  
6 0.1% 1.4%  
7 1.0% 1.3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 99 100% 94–103 93–105 92–106 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 98 99.9% 93–102 92–103 90–104 88–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 96 99.9% 92–101 90–102 89–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 94 99.6% 90–99 89–101 88–102 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 96% 86–95 85–97 84–97 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 92% 85–93 84–95 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 16% 77–86 76–88 74–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 10% 76–84 75–86 73–88 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.9% 72–80 71–81 70–82 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 67 0% 62–72 61–73 59–75 58–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 66 0% 61–71 60–72 58–73 57–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 62 0% 57–68 56–68 55–69 54–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 55–66 55–66 53–68 52–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–66 52–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 43–53 42–53 42–55 41–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 32–41 31–43 30–44 28–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 0.5% 99.3%  
91 1.3% 98.9%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 3% 97%  
94 4% 94%  
95 4% 90%  
96 6% 85%  
97 8% 79%  
98 17% 71%  
99 8% 54%  
100 13% 46% Median
101 8% 33%  
102 11% 25%  
103 6% 14%  
104 3% 8%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.5% 3%  
107 0.5% 1.2%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.3% 99.5%  
89 0.5% 99.2%  
90 2% 98.7%  
91 1.2% 97%  
92 3% 96%  
93 4% 93%  
94 5% 88%  
95 7% 83%  
96 8% 77%  
97 17% 69%  
98 9% 51%  
99 11% 42% Median
100 8% 32%  
101 10% 24%  
102 6% 13%  
103 3% 7%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.3% 2%  
106 0.3% 1.0%  
107 0.3% 0.7%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.5% 99.7%  
87 0.9% 99.3%  
88 0.9% 98%  
89 1.2% 98%  
90 2% 96%  
91 3% 94%  
92 10% 91%  
93 4% 82%  
94 14% 78%  
95 7% 64%  
96 10% 57% Median
97 11% 47%  
98 9% 37%  
99 4% 28%  
100 10% 23%  
101 5% 14%  
102 3% 8%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 1.5% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6% Majority
86 0.8% 99.3%  
87 1.0% 98.6%  
88 1.1% 98% Last Result
89 2% 96%  
90 4% 94%  
91 6% 90%  
92 12% 83%  
93 11% 71%  
94 14% 60% Median
95 15% 47%  
96 8% 32%  
97 5% 24%  
98 6% 18%  
99 4% 13%  
100 3% 9%  
101 3% 6%  
102 0.7% 3%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.3% 1.1%  
105 0.6% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.5%  
83 1.4% 99.0%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 4% 96% Majority
86 3% 93%  
87 5% 90%  
88 8% 85%  
89 10% 77%  
90 9% 67%  
91 19% 57% Median
92 10% 38%  
93 13% 28%  
94 5% 16%  
95 3% 10%  
96 2% 7%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 0.4% 99.3%  
82 2% 98.9%  
83 2% 97%  
84 4% 96%  
85 3% 92% Majority
86 6% 89%  
87 9% 83%  
88 8% 73%  
89 11% 66%  
90 20% 55% Median
91 8% 34%  
92 12% 26%  
93 5% 14%  
94 3% 9%  
95 2% 6%  
96 3% 4%  
97 0.5% 1.4%  
98 0.6% 1.0%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0% 0.3%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.5%  
73 0.9% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 0.9% 97%  
76 3% 96%  
77 7% 92% Last Result
78 5% 85%  
79 12% 81%  
80 9% 68%  
81 19% 59% Median
82 8% 41%  
83 10% 32%  
84 6% 22%  
85 5% 16% Majority
86 4% 12%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 2% 3%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 1.0% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 1.0% 96%  
75 4% 95%  
76 7% 92% Last Result
77 6% 84%  
78 11% 78%  
79 10% 67%  
80 17% 57% Median
81 13% 40%  
82 7% 27%  
83 5% 20%  
84 5% 15%  
85 2% 10% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.9% 1.3%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.4% Last Result
69 1.2% 98.9%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 95%  
72 4% 94%  
73 7% 89%  
74 12% 83%  
75 7% 71%  
76 19% 64%  
77 14% 45% Median
78 8% 31%  
79 13% 23%  
80 4% 11%  
81 4% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.2% 1.0%  
85 0.5% 0.9% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 1.1% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 6% 93%  
63 5% 86%  
64 11% 81%  
65 7% 70%  
66 7% 63% Median
67 11% 56%  
68 10% 45%  
69 8% 35%  
70 7% 27%  
71 5% 20%  
72 6% 16%  
73 5% 9%  
74 2% 5%  
75 0.6% 3%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.8% 1.4%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 2% 97%  
60 4% 95%  
61 7% 92%  
62 5% 85%  
63 11% 79%  
64 7% 68%  
65 7% 61% Median
66 11% 54%  
67 10% 43%  
68 8% 33%  
69 8% 26%  
70 3% 18%  
71 7% 15%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.6%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 2% 96%  
57 6% 94%  
58 5% 88%  
59 8% 83%  
60 16% 76%  
61 9% 60%  
62 8% 51% Median
63 9% 43%  
64 6% 34%  
65 9% 28%  
66 2% 19%  
67 6% 16%  
68 6% 11%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.0%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.8%  
54 2% 97%  
55 6% 95%  
56 6% 89%  
57 7% 83%  
58 15% 76%  
59 9% 61%  
60 8% 52% Median
61 10% 44%  
62 5% 34%  
63 10% 29%  
64 2% 19%  
65 4% 16%  
66 8% 12%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.4% 0.9%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 3% 97%  
55 6% 94%  
56 12% 87%  
57 7% 76%  
58 11% 69%  
59 16% 59% Median
60 14% 42% Last Result
61 8% 29%  
62 9% 20%  
63 4% 11%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.6%  
42 5% 98%  
43 5% 94%  
44 7% 89%  
45 10% 82%  
46 6% 72%  
47 7% 66% Median
48 8% 59%  
49 13% 51%  
50 13% 38%  
51 8% 25%  
52 5% 17%  
53 7% 12%  
54 1.3% 5%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.8%  
29 0.9% 99.1%  
30 2% 98%  
31 5% 97%  
32 7% 92%  
33 8% 85%  
34 14% 77%  
35 6% 63% Last Result
36 13% 57% Median
37 12% 44%  
38 9% 31%  
39 5% 23%  
40 7% 18%  
41 3% 10%  
42 2% 8%  
43 2% 6%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.6% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations