Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 31 May–4 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Høyre 25.0% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.6% 16.1–19.2% 15.7–19.7% 15.4–20.1% 14.7–20.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Rødt 2.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–46 39–47 39–48 37–49
Høyre 45 41 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–47
Senterpartiet 19 33 30–35 29–36 28–36 27–38
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–22 17–23 16–23 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 13–17 12–18 11–19
Rødt 1 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 2–14
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–3 1–3 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 1.3% 99.4%  
39 5% 98%  
40 9% 94%  
41 12% 85%  
42 10% 73%  
43 14% 63% Median
44 28% 49%  
45 11% 21%  
46 4% 11%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 1.3% 2% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 4% 98%  
37 9% 94%  
38 10% 84%  
39 11% 75%  
40 11% 64%  
41 13% 53% Median
42 13% 39%  
43 17% 26%  
44 5% 9%  
45 2% 4% Last Result
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.5%  
28 2% 98.9%  
29 4% 97%  
30 9% 93%  
31 12% 84%  
32 15% 72%  
33 24% 57% Median
34 17% 33%  
35 9% 16%  
36 4% 7%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.8% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.8%  
16 3% 99.2%  
17 8% 96%  
18 12% 88%  
19 24% 76%  
20 19% 51% Median
21 19% 32%  
22 8% 13%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
12 3% 98.8%  
13 9% 96%  
14 18% 86%  
15 40% 68% Median
16 14% 28%  
17 10% 14%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.6% 100%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0.7% 99.4%  
8 8% 98.7%  
9 20% 91%  
10 25% 71% Median
11 29% 46%  
12 13% 17%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.8% 1.0%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 45% 95%  
3 10% 50% Median
4 0.1% 40%  
5 0% 40%  
6 0% 40%  
7 9% 40%  
8 21% 31%  
9 7% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 14% 98.8%  
2 81% 85% Median
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 68% 95% Median
2 14% 27%  
3 10% 13%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 105 100% 102–110 101–111 100–112 97–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 101 100% 97–105 95–105 94–107 92–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 92–101 92–102 91–104 89–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.9% 91–99 90–101 89–102 87–103
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 100% 91–99 91–100 90–101 88–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 91 97% 87–94 86–95 84–96 82–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 23% 77–87 76–88 76–89 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 1.3% 74–81 72–82 71–83 69–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.1% 72–79 71–80 69–81 68–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 72 0% 70–78 69–78 68–79 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 68 0% 64–72 63–74 62–75 61–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 64 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 56–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 61 0% 56–64 55–65 54–66 52–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 55–61 53–61 53–63 51–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 44 0% 40–47 39–48 39–49 38–52
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 33–39 32–41 32–42 30–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.8%  
98 0.8% 99.4%  
99 0.7% 98.6%  
100 2% 98%  
101 5% 96%  
102 11% 90%  
103 9% 79%  
104 14% 69% Median
105 11% 55%  
106 10% 45%  
107 6% 35%  
108 8% 28%  
109 5% 20%  
110 9% 15%  
111 2% 5%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.6% 0.9%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.6% 99.8%  
93 1.0% 99.2%  
94 0.8% 98%  
95 3% 97%  
96 4% 95%  
97 3% 91%  
98 8% 88%  
99 8% 80%  
100 14% 72%  
101 13% 58% Median
102 19% 45%  
103 10% 26%  
104 5% 16%  
105 6% 11%  
106 2% 5%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.7% 0.9%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
89 0.2% 99.5%  
90 1.1% 99.3%  
91 2% 98%  
92 15% 96%  
93 5% 80%  
94 7% 76%  
95 8% 69% Median
96 7% 61%  
97 9% 54%  
98 15% 45%  
99 7% 30%  
100 9% 23%  
101 6% 15%  
102 4% 8%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.5% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.6% 99.3%  
89 1.2% 98.7%  
90 4% 97%  
91 16% 94%  
92 6% 78%  
93 8% 72%  
94 9% 65% Median
95 7% 55%  
96 11% 49%  
97 12% 38%  
98 6% 25%  
99 10% 19%  
100 3% 10%  
101 3% 6%  
102 1.0% 3%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.2% 100%  
88 0.6% 99.8%  
89 1.3% 99.2%  
90 3% 98%  
91 8% 95%  
92 6% 87%  
93 4% 82%  
94 3% 77%  
95 10% 74%  
96 8% 64%  
97 10% 56% Median
98 21% 46%  
99 15% 25%  
100 5% 10%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.5% 1.2%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.6% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.2%  
84 1.2% 98.6%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 5% 95%  
87 2% 90%  
88 6% 88%  
89 21% 82%  
90 9% 60%  
91 15% 52% Median
92 9% 37%  
93 9% 28%  
94 11% 19%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.9% 99.5%  
75 0.7% 98.6%  
76 3% 98%  
77 15% 94% Last Result
78 5% 79%  
79 4% 74%  
80 6% 70% Median
81 9% 63%  
82 15% 54%  
83 7% 40%  
84 10% 33%  
85 8% 23% Majority
86 5% 15%  
87 3% 10%  
88 3% 7%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.6% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 1.5% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 94%  
74 8% 91%  
75 17% 83%  
76 11% 66% Last Result
77 12% 55% Median
78 6% 43%  
79 16% 37%  
80 8% 22%  
81 4% 13%  
82 5% 9%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.8% 2%  
85 1.0% 1.3% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
69 2% 98.9%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 96%  
72 7% 93%  
73 7% 86%  
74 18% 80%  
75 11% 62%  
76 11% 51% Median
77 11% 40%  
78 13% 29%  
79 9% 17%  
80 3% 7%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.3%  
67 1.1% 98.8%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 95%  
70 15% 90%  
71 21% 75% Median
72 10% 54%  
73 8% 44%  
74 10% 36%  
75 3% 26%  
76 4% 22%  
77 6% 18%  
78 8% 13%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.6% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 2% 97%  
64 6% 95%  
65 5% 89%  
66 10% 84%  
67 19% 74% Median
68 13% 55%  
69 14% 42%  
70 8% 28%  
71 8% 20%  
72 3% 12%  
73 4% 9%  
74 3% 5%  
75 0.8% 3%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.6% 0.8%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 2% 97%  
59 9% 95%  
60 5% 85%  
61 8% 80%  
62 6% 72%  
63 10% 65%  
64 11% 55% Median
65 14% 44%  
66 9% 30%  
67 11% 21%  
68 5% 10%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.4%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 0.7% 99.4%  
56 3% 98.6%  
57 3% 95%  
58 12% 93%  
59 5% 80%  
60 8% 75%  
61 7% 67%  
62 8% 60%  
63 14% 52% Median
64 11% 38%  
65 11% 27%  
66 9% 16%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.6% 1.5%  
70 0.6% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.5%  
53 0.9% 99.2%  
54 3% 98%  
55 2% 95%  
56 10% 93%  
57 7% 82%  
58 9% 75%  
59 7% 67%  
60 7% 59%  
61 16% 52% Median
62 8% 36%  
63 13% 28%  
64 9% 15%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.3%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 1.4% 99.2%  
53 4% 98%  
54 3% 94%  
55 4% 90%  
56 14% 86%  
57 10% 72%  
58 16% 62% Median
59 16% 45%  
60 15% 30% Last Result
61 10% 14%  
62 0.9% 5%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.5%  
39 4% 98%  
40 8% 95%  
41 8% 87%  
42 10% 79%  
43 9% 70%  
44 14% 61% Median
45 14% 47%  
46 18% 33%  
47 6% 14%  
48 4% 9%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.6% 99.6%  
31 1.0% 99.0%  
32 5% 98%  
33 6% 93%  
34 13% 87%  
35 16% 74% Last Result
36 13% 58% Median
37 21% 45%  
38 11% 24%  
39 4% 13%  
40 3% 9%  
41 3% 6%  
42 1.1% 3%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations