Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 15–20 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.9% 23.2–26.8% 22.7–27.4% 22.3–27.8% 21.4–28.8%
Høyre 25.0% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.0–24.5% 19.6–24.9% 18.8–25.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.5% 16.0–19.2% 15.6–19.7% 15.2–20.1% 14.5–20.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.3% 7.8–11.6% 7.3–12.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.4% 7.3–9.7% 7.0–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.3–11.0%
Rødt 2.4% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.4%
Venstre 4.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 43–49 42–51 41–51 40–53
Høyre 45 40 36–44 36–45 35–46 34–47
Senterpartiet 19 33 30–36 29–36 28–37 27–39
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 15–20 14–21 14–21 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–18 12–18 12–19 11–20
Rødt 1 10 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–15
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–4 0–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–3 0–3 0–7 0–8
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 6% 96%  
43 9% 90%  
44 15% 82%  
45 21% 66% Median
46 15% 46%  
47 13% 31%  
48 7% 18%  
49 4% 11% Last Result
50 3% 8%  
51 4% 5%  
52 0.6% 1.4%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.6%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 7% 96%  
37 6% 89%  
38 10% 83%  
39 13% 73%  
40 13% 59% Median
41 13% 46%  
42 11% 34%  
43 11% 22%  
44 6% 11%  
45 2% 5% Last Result
46 2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.3%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.5%  
28 3% 98.7%  
29 2% 96%  
30 9% 94%  
31 6% 85%  
32 18% 79%  
33 16% 61% Median
34 15% 45%  
35 14% 30%  
36 12% 16%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 1.5%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.8%  
14 4% 98.7%  
15 10% 94%  
16 15% 85%  
17 21% 69% Median
18 19% 49%  
19 14% 30%  
20 9% 15%  
21 5% 7%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
12 4% 98.9%  
13 15% 94%  
14 21% 80%  
15 17% 59% Median
16 15% 42%  
17 13% 27%  
18 9% 14%  
19 2% 5%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0.7% 99.7%  
8 6% 99.0%  
9 14% 93%  
10 30% 79% Median
11 22% 49%  
12 17% 27%  
13 7% 10%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 55% 97% Last Result, Median
2 38% 42%  
3 2% 5%  
4 0.2% 3%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 63% 90% Median
2 13% 27%  
3 11% 14%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0.1% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 27% 97%  
2 67% 69% Median
3 0.4% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 1.5%  
6 0% 1.5%  
7 0.4% 1.5%  
8 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 106 100% 102–110 101–111 100–112 97–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 104 100% 100–109 99–109 98–111 96–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 93–101 92–102 91–104 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 96 100% 92–100 91–101 89–102 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 94 99.9% 90–98 89–99 88–100 85–102
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 99.4% 90–98 88–99 87–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 16% 78–86 76–88 75–89 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 8% 76–84 75–86 74–87 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 79 3% 75–82 74–84 73–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 72 0% 69–77 68–78 67–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 63 0% 58–66 56–68 56–69 54–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 57–65 56–66 56–67 54–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 61 0% 57–65 55–66 54–67 52–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 55–64 54–65 53–66 51–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 58 0% 54–62 52–63 51–64 49–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 43 0% 39–47 39–48 38–49 37–51
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 33–40 32–41 31–43 29–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.5% 99.8%  
98 0.7% 99.3%  
99 1.1% 98.6%  
100 2% 98%  
101 5% 96%  
102 6% 90%  
103 6% 85%  
104 11% 79% Median
105 9% 68%  
106 18% 60%  
107 12% 41%  
108 7% 30%  
109 6% 23%  
110 8% 17%  
111 5% 9%  
112 3% 4%  
113 0.9% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.9%  
115 0.3% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.9%  
96 0.6% 99.6%  
97 1.3% 99.0%  
98 1.0% 98%  
99 3% 97%  
100 5% 94%  
101 7% 89%  
102 5% 82%  
103 15% 76% Median
104 16% 61%  
105 7% 45%  
106 12% 38%  
107 8% 26%  
108 5% 18%  
109 9% 13%  
110 1.3% 4%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.9% 1.3%  
113 0.3% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.3% 100%  
88 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
89 0.5% 99.3%  
90 1.0% 98.7%  
91 1.3% 98%  
92 3% 96%  
93 8% 93%  
94 11% 85%  
95 11% 74% Median
96 8% 63%  
97 16% 55%  
98 8% 40%  
99 9% 31%  
100 10% 23%  
101 5% 12%  
102 3% 7%  
103 1.3% 4%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.6% 1.0%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 0.6% 99.2%  
89 2% 98.6%  
90 1.3% 97%  
91 4% 95%  
92 8% 91%  
93 12% 83%  
94 12% 71% Median
95 9% 59%  
96 16% 50%  
97 9% 34%  
98 10% 25%  
99 4% 15%  
100 5% 11%  
101 2% 5%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.6% 1.3%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.9% Majority
86 0.4% 99.4%  
87 1.1% 99.0%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 96%  
90 5% 94%  
91 10% 89%  
92 16% 80%  
93 11% 63% Median
94 14% 52%  
95 8% 39%  
96 13% 31%  
97 5% 18%  
98 4% 13%  
99 5% 9%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.6% 1.4%  
102 0.6% 0.8%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.4% Majority
86 0.9% 99.1%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 97%  
89 4% 94%  
90 4% 90%  
91 8% 86%  
92 15% 78%  
93 9% 63% Median
94 10% 54%  
95 9% 44%  
96 6% 35%  
97 14% 30%  
98 7% 16%  
99 5% 9%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.9% 2%  
102 1.0% 1.4%  
103 0.4% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 0.7% 99.2%  
75 1.0% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 2% 94% Last Result
78 11% 92%  
79 9% 80%  
80 13% 72% Median
81 8% 59%  
82 10% 51%  
83 10% 42%  
84 15% 31%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 3% 10%  
87 2% 7%  
88 2% 5%  
89 2% 3%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.4%  
73 0.8% 99.0%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 6% 93% Last Result
77 11% 87%  
78 7% 76%  
79 14% 69% Median
80 11% 55%  
81 8% 44%  
82 16% 36%  
83 7% 20%  
84 5% 14%  
85 3% 8% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.4%  
72 1.0% 98.9%  
73 3% 98%  
74 4% 95%  
75 5% 91%  
76 12% 86%  
77 9% 74%  
78 13% 65% Median
79 13% 52%  
80 9% 39%  
81 15% 30%  
82 7% 15%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.0% 3% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.5%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 6% 91%  
70 9% 85%  
71 12% 76% Median
72 16% 65%  
73 7% 48%  
74 10% 42%  
75 9% 32%  
76 5% 23%  
77 11% 18%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.9% 1.5%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 0.9% 99.2%  
56 3% 98%  
57 2% 95%  
58 3% 93%  
59 7% 89%  
60 13% 82%  
61 9% 69% Median
62 10% 60%  
63 10% 50%  
64 6% 40%  
65 15% 34%  
66 9% 18%  
67 4% 9%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.6%  
55 1.1% 98.9%  
56 4% 98%  
57 7% 94%  
58 8% 88%  
59 13% 80%  
60 19% 66% Last Result, Median
61 10% 48%  
62 12% 37%  
63 8% 26%  
64 7% 17%  
65 4% 11%  
66 4% 7%  
67 1.0% 3%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.6% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.8%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 93%  
57 4% 91%  
58 11% 86%  
59 10% 75%  
60 10% 65% Median
61 8% 54%  
62 10% 47%  
63 17% 37%  
64 8% 20%  
65 5% 12%  
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.8% 1.2%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 0.9% 99.2%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 6% 89%  
57 13% 83%  
58 13% 70%  
59 8% 57% Median
60 6% 50%  
61 13% 43%  
62 15% 31%  
63 5% 15%  
64 5% 10%  
65 1.3% 5%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.7% 1.3%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.8% 99.3%  
51 2% 98.5%  
52 3% 97%  
53 4% 94%  
54 6% 90%  
55 11% 84%  
56 13% 73%  
57 7% 60% Median
58 9% 53%  
59 11% 44%  
60 9% 32%  
61 11% 23%  
62 4% 12%  
63 4% 7%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.8%  
39 7% 96%  
40 7% 89%  
41 7% 82%  
42 12% 75%  
43 13% 63% Median
44 14% 50%  
45 14% 36%  
46 8% 22%  
47 6% 14%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.3%  
31 3% 98%  
32 2% 96%  
33 9% 93%  
34 10% 85%  
35 14% 75% Last Result
36 21% 61% Median
37 9% 40%  
38 9% 31%  
39 9% 22%  
40 5% 13%  
41 4% 8%  
42 1.0% 4%  
43 0.9% 3%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations