Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 10–13 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.0–24.5% 19.6–24.9% 18.8–25.8%
Høyre 25.0% 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.2% 19.4–24.7% 18.6–25.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.1% 15.6–18.7% 15.2–19.2% 14.8–19.6% 14.1–20.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 8.6% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.3% 7.0–10.6% 6.5–11.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.8% 5.8–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.1%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.8% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–44 38–45 38–45 35–47
Høyre 45 39 35–41 34–42 34–43 33–45
Senterpartiet 19 34 31–36 30–37 29–38 26–38
Fremskrittspartiet 27 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 9–15 9–16 8–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 9–13 9–13 8–14 7–15
Venstre 8 6 2–8 2–8 2–9 2–9
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–6 1–7 1–7
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–6 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.4% 99.5%  
37 1.0% 99.1%  
38 5% 98%  
39 10% 93%  
40 11% 83%  
41 11% 72%  
42 14% 62% Median
43 19% 48%  
44 21% 29%  
45 6% 7%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 8% 99.3%  
35 12% 91%  
36 8% 79%  
37 5% 71%  
38 5% 66%  
39 18% 60% Median
40 14% 42%  
41 21% 28%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.5% 99.4%  
28 1.0% 98.9%  
29 2% 98%  
30 4% 96%  
31 4% 91%  
32 14% 88%  
33 13% 74%  
34 19% 61% Median
35 19% 42%  
36 15% 23%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 6% 98%  
12 18% 92%  
13 13% 74%  
14 24% 61% Median
15 17% 37%  
16 11% 20%  
17 5% 9%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.9%  
9 5% 99.3%  
10 10% 94%  
11 21% 84% Last Result
12 23% 64% Median
13 22% 41%  
14 11% 18%  
15 3% 8%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.3% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.8% 100%  
8 3% 99.1%  
9 23% 96%  
10 25% 73% Median
11 19% 48%  
12 17% 29%  
13 9% 13%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.9% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 31% 100%  
3 7% 69%  
4 0.5% 62%  
5 0.1% 61%  
6 17% 61% Median
7 24% 45%  
8 18% 20% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 33% 100% Last Result
2 57% 67% Median
3 0.1% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0.6% 10%  
6 5% 9%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 44% 89% Median
2 12% 45%  
3 30% 33%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 100 100% 96–104 95–106 94–107 91–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 101 100% 97–105 95–106 94–107 92–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 98 100% 95–103 93–104 92–105 89–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 93 99.7% 89–97 88–99 87–99 85–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 96% 86–94 85–95 83–95 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 88 88% 84–92 83–94 81–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 88% 84–92 83–92 81–93 79–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 0.4% 73–82 72–82 70–83 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0% 72–79 70–80 68–80 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 70 0% 66–74 65–75 64–76 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 59 0% 55–64 53–65 53–66 51–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 58 0% 53–63 52–63 51–64 50–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 51–57 49–58 49–59 47–61
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 53 0% 48–56 48–57 47–59 46–60
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 46 0% 41–50 39–51 38–52 37–54
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 41 0% 37–45 35–45 34–46 31–48

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 0.6% 99.2%  
93 1.1% 98.7%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 96%  
96 4% 93%  
97 12% 88%  
98 8% 77%  
99 13% 69% Median
100 9% 56%  
101 11% 47%  
102 6% 36%  
103 10% 30%  
104 11% 20%  
105 3% 10%  
106 4% 7%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.6% 1.0%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.7% 99.6%  
93 0.5% 98.9%  
94 2% 98%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 13% 91%  
98 10% 78%  
99 7% 69%  
100 11% 61% Median
101 6% 50%  
102 13% 44%  
103 9% 31%  
104 9% 23%  
105 6% 13%  
106 3% 7%  
107 3% 4%  
108 0.4% 0.9%  
109 0.4% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.8% 99.5%  
91 0.6% 98.6%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 96%  
94 3% 94%  
95 5% 90%  
96 14% 86%  
97 14% 71%  
98 11% 57% Median
99 5% 47%  
100 15% 42%  
101 5% 27%  
102 9% 22%  
103 6% 13%  
104 2% 6%  
105 3% 4%  
106 0.3% 0.8%  
107 0.4% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.7% 99.7% Majority
86 0.5% 98.9%  
87 1.3% 98%  
88 5% 97%  
89 4% 92%  
90 9% 89%  
91 9% 80%  
92 15% 71%  
93 14% 57%  
94 6% 43% Median
95 12% 37%  
96 9% 25%  
97 6% 16%  
98 4% 10%  
99 4% 6%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.8% 1.3%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 1.1% 99.4%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 1.4% 97%  
85 4% 96% Majority
86 7% 92%  
87 7% 86%  
88 18% 79%  
89 6% 61%  
90 10% 55% Median
91 8% 45%  
92 11% 37%  
93 9% 25%  
94 10% 17%  
95 5% 7%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100% Last Result
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.6% 99.3%  
81 1.3% 98.7%  
82 2% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 4% 92%  
85 11% 88% Majority
86 7% 77%  
87 11% 70% Median
88 14% 59%  
89 10% 45%  
90 9% 35%  
91 10% 26%  
92 7% 16%  
93 3% 9%  
94 4% 5%  
95 0.8% 1.4%  
96 0.5% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
80 0.8% 99.3%  
81 1.4% 98%  
82 1.1% 97%  
83 3% 96%  
84 5% 93%  
85 10% 88% Majority
86 9% 78%  
87 16% 69%  
88 9% 53% Median
89 12% 44%  
90 10% 32%  
91 8% 22%  
92 9% 13%  
93 3% 4%  
94 0.8% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 1.1% 99.5%  
70 0.9% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 96%  
73 3% 93%  
74 4% 89%  
75 8% 85%  
76 16% 77% Last Result
77 7% 61% Median
78 12% 54%  
79 14% 42%  
80 14% 28%  
81 4% 15%  
82 7% 10%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.3%  
68 1.3% 98.6% Last Result
69 0.8% 97%  
70 2% 97%  
71 2% 94%  
72 4% 92%  
73 8% 88%  
74 10% 79%  
75 17% 69%  
76 8% 52% Median
77 11% 44%  
78 11% 33%  
79 16% 22%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.6% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 1.3% 99.6%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 7% 92%  
67 10% 85%  
68 11% 75%  
69 11% 64%  
70 7% 53% Median
71 7% 45%  
72 12% 38%  
73 12% 26%  
74 5% 14%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 0.9% 99.2%  
61 3% 98%  
62 5% 96% Last Result
63 6% 91%  
64 6% 85%  
65 16% 78%  
66 9% 63% Median
67 12% 53%  
68 11% 41%  
69 10% 30%  
70 8% 20%  
71 4% 13%  
72 6% 8%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9%  
52 1.1% 99.3%  
53 3% 98%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 8% 88%  
57 11% 80%  
58 12% 68%  
59 9% 56%  
60 9% 47% Median
61 8% 38%  
62 10% 30%  
63 5% 21%  
64 9% 15%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.7%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 3% 92%  
54 5% 89%  
55 14% 84%  
56 11% 70%  
57 7% 59%  
58 11% 52%  
59 13% 41% Median
60 6% 28%  
61 5% 22%  
62 6% 17%  
63 7% 11%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.1%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 1.4% 99.4%  
49 4% 98%  
50 4% 94%  
51 7% 90%  
52 11% 83%  
53 8% 73%  
54 16% 65% Median
55 19% 49%  
56 19% 30%  
57 5% 11%  
58 2% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.5% 2% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 2% 99.7%  
47 2% 98%  
48 10% 96%  
49 8% 86%  
50 6% 78%  
51 10% 72%  
52 10% 63%  
53 14% 52% Median
54 7% 38%  
55 16% 31%  
56 7% 15%  
57 3% 8%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 2% 99.9%  
38 2% 98%  
39 2% 96%  
40 2% 93%  
41 3% 92%  
42 9% 89%  
43 9% 79%  
44 5% 70%  
45 12% 65%  
46 13% 53% Median
47 9% 40%  
48 10% 31%  
49 10% 21%  
50 6% 12%  
51 2% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 0.4% 99.4%  
33 1.3% 99.0%  
34 1.4% 98%  
35 2% 96% Last Result
36 3% 94%  
37 9% 91%  
38 8% 82%  
39 10% 74%  
40 9% 65%  
41 11% 56% Median
42 13% 44%  
43 7% 31%  
44 8% 24%  
45 11% 16%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations