Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Bergens Tidende and VG, 13–18 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.6% 21.5–28.5%
Høyre 25.0% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Venstre 4.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–47 41–49 41–50 40–53
Høyre 45 36 34–38 33–40 32–41 30–43
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–23 17–24 17–25 16–26
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–21 17–22 17–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 13–18 13–19 12–20 12–21
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–11 8–12 8–13 7–13
Venstre 8 9 7–10 7–10 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 3–9 2–9 1–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 10% 99.3%  
42 11% 89%  
43 16% 78%  
44 15% 62% Median
45 15% 47%  
46 19% 32%  
47 2% 12%  
48 3% 10%  
49 3% 7% Last Result
50 1.4% 4%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.3%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 1.0% 98.8%  
32 1.4% 98%  
33 2% 96%  
34 7% 95%  
35 20% 87%  
36 27% 68% Median
37 12% 41%  
38 20% 29%  
39 3% 9%  
40 2% 6%  
41 1.2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.4% 99.6%  
17 4% 98%  
18 8% 94%  
19 17% 87%  
20 20% 70%  
21 24% 50% Median
22 11% 26%  
23 5% 15%  
24 6% 10%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.5% 0.9%  
27 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.1%  
17 6% 98%  
18 9% 92%  
19 11% 83% Last Result
20 41% 72% Median
21 21% 31%  
22 5% 10%  
23 2% 5%  
24 1.1% 3%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.7%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100% Last Result
12 2% 99.5%  
13 13% 97%  
14 4% 84%  
15 13% 80%  
16 28% 67% Median
17 10% 40%  
18 20% 29%  
19 6% 9%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0.1% 99.7%  
7 2% 99.6%  
8 16% 98%  
9 17% 82%  
10 36% 65% Median
11 19% 29%  
12 7% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 0.7% 97%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0.3% 96%  
7 22% 96%  
8 22% 74% Last Result
9 38% 52% Median
10 9% 14%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 13% 99.9%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.5% 87%  
7 24% 87%  
8 36% 63% Median
9 18% 26%  
10 7% 8%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 2% 98%  
3 29% 97%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0.7% 68%  
7 44% 67% Median
8 12% 23% Last Result
9 8% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 97 99.9% 94–102 93–104 91–104 89–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 100% 92–100 92–102 90–104 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 97% 87–95 85–96 84–98 82–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 92 98% 87–95 86–95 85–97 82–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 86% 84–92 83–93 82–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 9% 77–84 75–86 74–88 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 13% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 81 13% 77–85 76–86 74–87 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 77 2% 74–82 73–83 72–84 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 67–75 65–76 64–78 62–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 72 0% 67–75 65–76 65–77 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–71 58–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 62–69 60–70 59–71 56–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 57–64 57–65 56–66 54–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 54–60 53–61 51–63 49–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 51 0% 47–54 46–55 44–56 42–58
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 35 0% 30–38 29–39 29–39 26–41

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 0.7% 99.1%  
91 1.0% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 2% 95%  
94 9% 93%  
95 8% 84%  
96 10% 76%  
97 18% 66%  
98 12% 47% Median
99 9% 35%  
100 7% 26%  
101 3% 19%  
102 8% 16%  
103 2% 8%  
104 3% 5%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.3%  
107 0.4% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
89 0.5% 99.2%  
90 2% 98.7%  
91 1.5% 97%  
92 6% 95%  
93 4% 90%  
94 11% 86%  
95 16% 75%  
96 17% 59%  
97 12% 43% Median
98 9% 31%  
99 10% 23%  
100 4% 13%  
101 3% 9%  
102 2% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.3% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.4% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.5% 99.6%  
83 0.6% 99.2%  
84 1.3% 98.5%  
85 4% 97% Majority
86 3% 94%  
87 10% 91%  
88 16% 81%  
89 15% 65%  
90 7% 50% Median
91 10% 43%  
92 6% 34%  
93 4% 27%  
94 10% 23%  
95 3% 13%  
96 5% 10%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.2% 3%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.6% 99.5%  
84 0.9% 98.9%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 3% 96%  
87 8% 93%  
88 5% 85%  
89 9% 80%  
90 9% 71%  
91 11% 62%  
92 16% 51%  
93 17% 35% Median
94 4% 18%  
95 10% 15%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.1% 3%  
98 0.9% 1.4%  
99 0.1% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
81 0.7% 98.6%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 7% 93%  
85 5% 86% Majority
86 12% 81%  
87 18% 69%  
88 18% 51% Median
89 7% 33%  
90 7% 27%  
91 3% 19%  
92 8% 16%  
93 4% 8%  
94 2% 5%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.4% 0.9%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.6%  
73 1.0% 99.3%  
74 3% 98%  
75 3% 95%  
76 2% 93%  
77 5% 91% Last Result
78 8% 86%  
79 16% 78%  
80 22% 62%  
81 13% 40% Median
82 8% 26%  
83 4% 18%  
84 5% 14%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 1.0% 5%  
87 0.8% 4%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 1.1% 2%  
90 0.8% 1.1%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 1.2% 99.1%  
75 3% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 9% 92%  
78 10% 84%  
79 19% 74% Last Result
80 11% 54% Median
81 9% 43%  
82 7% 34%  
83 6% 27%  
84 8% 21%  
85 6% 13% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.6%  
73 0.4% 99.3%  
74 2% 98.9%  
75 2% 97%  
76 4% 95%  
77 8% 91%  
78 4% 83%  
79 8% 80%  
80 7% 72%  
81 18% 65%  
82 18% 47%  
83 12% 30% Median
84 5% 18%  
85 7% 13% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 1.1% 99.2%  
72 1.2% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 10% 94%  
75 4% 84%  
76 17% 80%  
77 15% 63%  
78 11% 48% Median
79 9% 37%  
80 8% 28%  
81 5% 19%  
82 8% 14%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.5% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 1.1% 99.5%  
64 3% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 2% 94%  
67 5% 92%  
68 7% 87%  
69 18% 80%  
70 20% 62%  
71 16% 42% Median
72 4% 26%  
73 8% 22%  
74 4% 15%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 6% Last Result
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.8%  
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 0.6% 99.1%  
64 1.0% 98.6%  
65 3% 98%  
66 2% 94%  
67 8% 92%  
68 4% 84%  
69 7% 80%  
70 9% 73%  
71 13% 64%  
72 19% 51%  
73 10% 33% Median
74 8% 23%  
75 8% 14%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 3% 98.9%  
60 2% 96%  
61 7% 94%  
62 14% 88%  
63 12% 74%  
64 18% 61% Median
65 8% 44%  
66 17% 36%  
67 8% 19%  
68 5% 11% Last Result
69 2% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.7% 99.3%  
58 1.1% 98.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 8% 91%  
63 12% 83%  
64 12% 71%  
65 17% 59%  
66 9% 42% Median
67 10% 33%  
68 12% 24%  
69 3% 12%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.4%  
56 2% 98%  
57 9% 96%  
58 11% 88%  
59 18% 77%  
60 16% 58% Last Result, Median
61 9% 43%  
62 9% 34%  
63 6% 25%  
64 10% 18%  
65 4% 8%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.1%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.0%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 5% 95%  
54 10% 90%  
55 11% 81%  
56 18% 70%  
57 13% 51% Median
58 7% 38%  
59 11% 31%  
60 11% 20%  
61 4% 9%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.2% 3%  
64 0.9% 1.4%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 0.9% 99.2%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 5% 95%  
47 7% 91%  
48 9% 83%  
49 3% 74%  
50 8% 71%  
51 24% 62%  
52 13% 38% Median
53 13% 25%  
54 5% 12%  
55 3% 7%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.4% 99.7%  
27 0.6% 99.3%  
28 0.8% 98.7%  
29 4% 98%  
30 11% 94%  
31 5% 84%  
32 6% 79%  
33 9% 73%  
34 12% 64%  
35 12% 52% Last Result
36 19% 40% Median
37 11% 21%  
38 5% 11%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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