Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 23–27 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.6% 21.0–24.4% 20.5–24.9% 20.1–25.3% 19.3–26.2%
Høyre 25.0% 19.2% 17.6–20.9% 17.2–21.3% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.8% 10.6–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.7% 9.1–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 10.2% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–11.9% 8.5–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Rødt 2.4% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–44 39–45 38–46 35–48
Høyre 45 35 31–37 31–38 30–39 28–40
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 18–24 17–25 17–25 16–27
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 18–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 17 15–20 14–21 13–21 11–23
Rødt 1 12 10–14 9–15 9–15 8–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 6–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.5%  
37 0.6% 99.2%  
38 2% 98.6%  
39 5% 96%  
40 13% 92%  
41 26% 79%  
42 22% 52% Median
43 11% 30%  
44 12% 19%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.6% 1.3%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 0.8% 99.3%  
30 2% 98%  
31 7% 96%  
32 9% 89%  
33 8% 80%  
34 10% 72%  
35 28% 62% Median
36 17% 34%  
37 10% 17%  
38 4% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 1.0% 1.3%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 3% 98%  
18 14% 95%  
19 14% 81%  
20 19% 67% Median
21 16% 48%  
22 15% 32%  
23 6% 17%  
24 5% 11%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.6% 1.1%  
27 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.6% 99.7%  
17 3% 99.1%  
18 8% 96%  
19 15% 89% Last Result
20 45% 74% Median
21 14% 29%  
22 4% 15%  
23 2% 11%  
24 5% 9%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.6% 0.8%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
12 0.7% 99.4%  
13 2% 98.6%  
14 5% 96%  
15 13% 92%  
16 20% 79%  
17 18% 59% Median
18 19% 41%  
19 11% 22%  
20 4% 11%  
21 6% 7%  
22 0.7% 2%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.8%  
9 5% 98.7%  
10 14% 94%  
11 24% 79%  
12 20% 55% Median
13 18% 35%  
14 8% 17%  
15 6% 9%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 6% 100%  
3 0.7% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 5% 94%  
7 21% 89%  
8 21% 68% Median
9 28% 47%  
10 15% 19%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.6% 0.8%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 28% 100%  
3 0.2% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 6% 72%  
7 34% 66% Median
8 17% 32% Last Result
9 10% 14%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 13% 97%  
3 46% 84% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0.1% 38%  
6 10% 38%  
7 16% 28%  
8 9% 12% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 99 100% 93–105 92–107 90–108 89–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 91 97% 87–97 86–97 84–99 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 91 95% 86–97 84–97 84–99 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 77% 82–93 81–94 80–94 78–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 86 64% 82–91 80–92 79–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 4% 75–84 74–84 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 79 9% 73–84 72–86 71–86 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 73 0.7% 69–79 68–80 66–82 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 75 0.3% 70–79 69–80 68–81 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 66 0% 61–71 59–72 59–74 56–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 66 0% 62–70 61–72 61–73 58–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 59–65 58–66 57–68 55–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 57–66 56–67 54–68 53–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–63 55–63 54–65 52–66
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 55 0% 52–59 50–60 49–62 48–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 45 0% 41–50 40–51 37–52 35–54
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 26–36 25–37 24–38 23–39

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.5%  
90 2% 99.0%  
91 2% 97%  
92 3% 95%  
93 3% 92%  
94 5% 89%  
95 6% 84%  
96 9% 78%  
97 4% 69%  
98 8% 65%  
99 14% 57% Median
100 7% 42%  
101 7% 35%  
102 6% 28%  
103 5% 22%  
104 3% 17%  
105 5% 14%  
106 2% 9%  
107 5% 7%  
108 1.4% 3%  
109 0.4% 1.2%  
110 0.5% 0.8%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.6%  
83 0.6% 99.3%  
84 2% 98.7%  
85 1.3% 97% Majority
86 3% 95%  
87 6% 92%  
88 11% 87% Last Result
89 9% 76%  
90 9% 67% Median
91 9% 58%  
92 9% 48%  
93 7% 39%  
94 9% 33%  
95 6% 24%  
96 8% 18%  
97 6% 11%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.2% 3%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.8% 1.2%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 0.8% 99.6%  
83 1.2% 98.7%  
84 3% 98%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 3% 87%  
88 5% 84%  
89 15% 79%  
90 10% 64%  
91 14% 54% Median
92 9% 41%  
93 9% 32%  
94 4% 23%  
95 3% 20%  
96 5% 16%  
97 7% 11%  
98 0.8% 4%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.6% 1.5%  
101 0.5% 0.9%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.5%  
79 0.6% 99.3%  
80 2% 98.7% Last Result
81 5% 97%  
82 3% 92%  
83 5% 89%  
84 8% 84%  
85 10% 77% Majority
86 16% 67%  
87 10% 52% Median
88 10% 42%  
89 5% 32%  
90 7% 27%  
91 4% 20%  
92 3% 16%  
93 6% 13%  
94 5% 8%  
95 0.6% 2%  
96 1.0% 1.5%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 99.4%  
79 2% 98.6%  
80 2% 97%  
81 3% 95%  
82 8% 92%  
83 15% 84%  
84 6% 69%  
85 13% 64% Median, Majority
86 9% 51%  
87 10% 42%  
88 10% 32%  
89 6% 23%  
90 6% 17%  
91 4% 10%  
92 3% 6%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 1.5% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.8% 99.5%  
73 3% 98.7%  
74 3% 96%  
75 7% 93%  
76 9% 86%  
77 7% 78%  
78 17% 71%  
79 12% 54% Last Result, Median
80 12% 42%  
81 9% 30%  
82 3% 21%  
83 3% 18%  
84 11% 15%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.5%  
88 0.6% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.4%  
71 1.5% 98.8%  
72 4% 97%  
73 3% 93%  
74 5% 90%  
75 6% 85%  
76 8% 79%  
77 11% 71%  
78 6% 60%  
79 14% 54% Median
80 8% 41%  
81 7% 32%  
82 6% 25%  
83 4% 19%  
84 6% 15%  
85 2% 9% Majority
86 6% 7%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.3% 1.0%  
89 0.5% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.2% 99.6%  
65 1.3% 99.4%  
66 0.6% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 96%  
69 3% 93%  
70 8% 90%  
71 11% 82%  
72 12% 71%  
73 16% 59% Median
74 6% 43%  
75 5% 36%  
76 7% 32%  
77 7% 25%  
78 7% 17%  
79 3% 10%  
80 2% 7%  
81 1.4% 4%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.8%  
85 0.7% 0.7% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 1.1% 99.5%  
67 0.6% 98%  
68 1.2% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 6% 94%  
71 8% 88%  
72 7% 79%  
73 11% 72% Median
74 9% 61%  
75 16% 52%  
76 11% 37%  
77 5% 25% Last Result
78 10% 21%  
79 4% 11%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.4% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.0%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.7%  
57 0.3% 98.9%  
58 0.6% 98.6%  
59 3% 98%  
60 2% 95%  
61 4% 93%  
62 12% 89%  
63 11% 77%  
64 9% 66%  
65 6% 57% Median
66 12% 51%  
67 8% 39%  
68 8% 30%  
69 4% 22%  
70 8% 18%  
71 4% 11%  
72 2% 7%  
73 1.4% 4%  
74 2% 3%  
75 1.0% 1.4%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.3%  
60 1.2% 99.0%  
61 4% 98%  
62 5% 94%  
63 4% 89%  
64 15% 85%  
65 6% 70% Median
66 16% 64%  
67 13% 48%  
68 10% 36%  
69 11% 25%  
70 4% 14%  
71 5% 10%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.0% 3%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.3%  
57 2% 98.6%  
58 4% 97%  
59 8% 93%  
60 10% 85%  
61 21% 75%  
62 14% 54% Median
63 14% 40%  
64 9% 27%  
65 9% 17%  
66 5% 9%  
67 1.4% 4%  
68 2% 3% Last Result
69 0.4% 1.0%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 1.3% 99.5%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 1.2% 97%  
56 5% 96%  
57 5% 91%  
58 5% 86%  
59 13% 81%  
60 10% 68%  
61 12% 57%  
62 8% 45% Median
63 13% 38%  
64 9% 25%  
65 6% 16%  
66 4% 10%  
67 2% 7%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.7%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.8% 99.5%  
54 3% 98.7%  
55 7% 96%  
56 10% 89%  
57 12% 79%  
58 15% 67%  
59 12% 52% Median
60 16% 41% Last Result
61 8% 25%  
62 5% 17%  
63 8% 12%  
64 2% 4%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.6% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 2% 96%  
51 4% 94%  
52 9% 90%  
53 11% 81%  
54 12% 70%  
55 12% 58% Median
56 11% 46%  
57 15% 35%  
58 7% 19%  
59 6% 13%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 1.1% 1.5%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.9%  
38 0.9% 97%  
39 1.3% 96%  
40 4% 95%  
41 9% 91%  
42 6% 81%  
43 7% 75%  
44 10% 68%  
45 13% 58% Median
46 14% 46%  
47 8% 31%  
48 7% 23%  
49 5% 16%  
50 4% 11%  
51 3% 7%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.9%  
25 5% 97%  
26 9% 93%  
27 4% 83%  
28 4% 80%  
29 13% 76%  
30 14% 62% Median
31 10% 48%  
32 7% 38%  
33 7% 31%  
34 9% 24%  
35 5% 15% Last Result
36 4% 10%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.9% 1.2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations