Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 25–31 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.9–25.0% 21.5–25.5% 21.1–25.9% 20.4–26.7%
Høyre 25.0% 21.5% 20.0–23.1% 19.6–23.5% 19.3–23.9% 18.6–24.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.7% 9.6–11.9% 9.3–12.2% 9.0–12.5% 8.6–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.7% 8.6–10.9% 8.4–11.2% 8.1–11.5% 7.7–12.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.3% 3.5–6.8%
Venstre 4.4% 4.8% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.2% 3.4–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 41–46 41–46 40–47 40–50
Høyre 45 38 36–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Senterpartiet 19 18 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–25
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–21 15–21 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–18 13–18 12–18 11–20
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–9 6–10 3–10 2–11
Rødt 1 8 6–9 6–9 2–10 2–11
Venstre 8 8 6–9 2–9 2–10 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 6 3–7 2–8 2–8 2–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.5%  
41 23% 96%  
42 19% 73%  
43 14% 54% Median
44 26% 40%  
45 4% 14%  
46 5% 10%  
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 24% 98%  
37 12% 74%  
38 29% 62% Median
39 6% 33%  
40 5% 27%  
41 10% 22%  
42 3% 11%  
43 5% 8%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.7%  
17 4% 99.2%  
18 46% 95% Median
19 18% 49% Last Result
20 9% 31%  
21 17% 22%  
22 2% 5%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 1.2%  
25 0.3% 0.6%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 5% 99.4%  
16 5% 95%  
17 10% 90%  
18 38% 79% Median
19 21% 41%  
20 10% 21%  
21 7% 11%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.0% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
12 3% 98%  
13 4% 96%  
14 9% 92%  
15 16% 83%  
16 45% 66% Median
17 12% 22%  
18 8% 10%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 1.0% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0.3% 98%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 5% 97%  
7 38% 93%  
8 38% 55% Median
9 10% 17%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 3% 100%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 7% 97%  
7 30% 90%  
8 43% 60% Median
9 13% 17%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 0.3% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 9% 95%  
7 31% 85%  
8 43% 54% Last Result, Median
9 8% 11%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 7% 99.6%  
3 40% 92%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0.4% 52%  
6 28% 52% Median
7 15% 23%  
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 93 99.5% 88–96 88–98 87–99 84–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 90 97% 86–94 85–96 84–97 82–99
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 88 90% 85–92 84–93 83–94 80–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 86 60% 81–89 80–90 80–91 78–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 60% 81–89 81–90 80–91 77–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 77 0.8% 72–81 72–82 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 0.6% 74–81 73–82 73–82 71–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 75 0.2% 70–78 70–80 69–81 67–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 74 0% 70–77 69–78 69–80 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 69 0% 65–74 64–75 63–75 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 62–70 62–72 62–73 61–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 61–68 60–69 58–70 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 59–65 59–66 59–67 58–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 56–61 55–62 55–63 53–65
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 56 0% 54–61 53–62 52–62 50–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 51 0% 47–54 46–56 45–57 41–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 32 0% 28–34 28–35 27–37 23–38

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.5% Majority
86 0.9% 99.1%  
87 2% 98%  
88 7% 96%  
89 2% 89%  
90 9% 87%  
91 14% 78%  
92 9% 63%  
93 10% 54% Median
94 10% 45%  
95 9% 35%  
96 17% 26%  
97 3% 10%  
98 2% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.5% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 1.0% 99.5%  
84 1.0% 98%  
85 5% 97% Majority
86 10% 92%  
87 7% 83%  
88 4% 76% Last Result
89 9% 72%  
90 16% 63%  
91 17% 48% Median
92 7% 30%  
93 9% 24%  
94 6% 14%  
95 2% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.6%  
81 0.4% 99.4%  
82 0.7% 99.0%  
83 2% 98%  
84 6% 96%  
85 5% 90% Majority
86 22% 85%  
87 7% 63%  
88 9% 55% Median
89 21% 46%  
90 9% 25%  
91 4% 17%  
92 4% 13%  
93 6% 9%  
94 1.2% 3%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.9% 99.7%  
79 1.2% 98.9%  
80 6% 98% Last Result
81 2% 91%  
82 7% 90%  
83 9% 83%  
84 14% 74%  
85 9% 60% Median, Majority
86 13% 51%  
87 8% 38%  
88 19% 30%  
89 4% 11%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.2%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.4%  
79 0.9% 98.8%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 8% 96%  
82 9% 88%  
83 12% 79%  
84 7% 67%  
85 14% 60% Median, Majority
86 9% 46%  
87 9% 37%  
88 6% 28%  
89 16% 22%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 1.1%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 0.9% 97%  
72 15% 96%  
73 4% 81%  
74 6% 77%  
75 7% 71%  
76 9% 63%  
77 14% 54%  
78 6% 40% Median
79 14% 34%  
80 8% 20%  
81 3% 12%  
82 7% 9%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.4%  
85 0.4% 0.8% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.9%  
72 0.9% 99.3%  
73 7% 98%  
74 7% 91%  
75 6% 84%  
76 14% 78%  
77 11% 64% Median
78 12% 54%  
79 12% 42% Last Result
80 8% 30%  
81 17% 22%  
82 3% 5%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.2% 99.5%  
68 0.7% 99.3%  
69 1.4% 98.6%  
70 9% 97%  
71 6% 88%  
72 9% 82%  
73 6% 73%  
74 15% 67%  
75 21% 53% Median
76 10% 32%  
77 10% 22% Last Result
78 3% 12%  
79 2% 9%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.9% 1.1%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.9% 99.2%  
68 0.7% 98%  
69 3% 98%  
70 8% 95%  
71 4% 87%  
72 12% 83%  
73 18% 71%  
74 6% 53%  
75 27% 47% Median
76 5% 21%  
77 7% 16%  
78 4% 9%  
79 1.2% 5%  
80 3% 3%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.7% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 15% 95%  
66 5% 79%  
67 9% 74%  
68 9% 65%  
69 13% 56%  
70 8% 44% Median
71 17% 36%  
72 6% 19%  
73 3% 13%  
74 2% 10%  
75 7% 8%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.0%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 1.4% 99.8%  
62 11% 98%  
63 2% 88%  
64 5% 85%  
65 12% 80%  
66 14% 68%  
67 8% 55% Median
68 22% 47%  
69 10% 25%  
70 7% 16%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 6%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.2%  
76 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.7% 99.4%  
58 1.2% 98.7%  
59 1.4% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 7% 93%  
62 22% 86%  
63 10% 64%  
64 8% 53% Median
65 13% 45%  
66 11% 32%  
67 5% 21%  
68 5% 15%  
69 7% 10%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.6%  
59 19% 98%  
60 15% 79%  
61 9% 64% Median
62 15% 54%  
63 10% 39%  
64 6% 30%  
65 15% 24%  
66 5% 9%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.7% 2% Last Result
69 0.7% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.8%  
54 0.6% 98.9%  
55 8% 98%  
56 10% 90%  
57 9% 81%  
58 15% 72%  
59 17% 57% Median
60 24% 40% Last Result
61 9% 17%  
62 5% 8%  
63 1.2% 3%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.4%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 18% 93%  
55 15% 76%  
56 11% 61% Median
57 13% 49%  
58 8% 36%  
59 8% 28%  
60 5% 20%  
61 6% 14%  
62 6% 8%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.9% 1.4%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.5% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.5%  
43 0.4% 99.3%  
44 0.2% 98.9%  
45 2% 98.7%  
46 3% 97%  
47 14% 94%  
48 12% 80%  
49 7% 68%  
50 9% 61%  
51 11% 52%  
52 15% 41% Median
53 8% 26%  
54 10% 18%  
55 2% 8%  
56 3% 5%  
57 0.9% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.2%  
25 0.4% 99.0%  
26 1.0% 98.6%  
27 2% 98%  
28 13% 96%  
29 8% 83%  
30 8% 75%  
31 17% 67%  
32 26% 50% Median
33 9% 24%  
34 6% 15%  
35 4% 9% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.9% 1.3%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations